Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

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https://mobile.twitter.com/sam_d_1995/status/1590523395422420993

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Murdoch jumping ship to DeSantis (yesterday's frontpage was DeFUTURE) feels like the start of something. Will be interested to see whether Rupert stands his ground this time, or folds and supports Trump again like the last few times he came up against him...

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I think the country could be open to a gay man. Just not Buttigieg. My reasoning for it is that Polis had been the top vote getter two times a row in the past two Colorado midterms, and while Colorado is obviously blue, he’s still a proven winner even in some Trump-curious areas.

US voting intention 2024: masc4masc?

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Dave makes an another prediction that might blow up in his face.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590814437576871936?s=20&t=6WkFk5gMA7t...

Calling that a prediction is a bit of a stretch.  It's a fair evaluation.

he deleted lol what did it say

He said Boebert was favoured, now she's up 700 votes

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https://twitter.com/meridithmcgraw/status/1591055661659324417
Hahaha, yes Trump, please keep attacking the rising stars of your party! They’re all RINOs, sir!

I know Trump's record on race is... not great.

But my impression is that he's really doubled-down on mocking East-Asian names over the past year? Especially with his tirade against Elaine Chao. It strikes me as a tadd odd - big "racist grandad yells at TV" vibes.

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I have been a lurker here for a long time and set up an account just to say that this is the LAST place i expected to see this esc reference.

YEEEES! Space man made it!

Given certain demographics here on the forum, we've got a fair ESC following - check out the Off Topic board around April-May for further details...

Edit: oh, and welcome!

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An idea I've seen floating around from a few people on Twitter is that if it ends up something like 218R-217D, McCarthy doesn't have the votes to be Speaker, and Dems might propose a compromise candidate: Liz Cheney.  (Remember that the Speaker doesn't have to be a member of the House.)

Can you imagine Trump's response to a Speaker Cheney - especially if she shields the Jan 6th Committee? Just fireworks, everywhere.

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(I'll also give my Gay Opinion that men look, like, thrice better with shorts on average)

I always wear shorts (outside of winter), but I still look like sh*t. I have to say that I generally disagree with this opinion. Most men look pretty good in jeans, IMO.

Totally off-topic, but a nice butt in jeans is one of my weaknesses (along with a good sense of humor, nice smile, and/or having hobbies). 

What about people who have none of those things?

They post on Atlas 

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The fact this it's the middle (late here, but GMT is hardly relevant in this discussion) of Friday and the House is still up in the air just feels miraculous. Kevin McCarthy must be having quite a week...

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*chef's kiss*

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1591112183945269251

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I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

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I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

That also makes me realize, what's going to happen if a Representative is involved in a major scandal? Would there be pressure for them to resign even if it would mean flipping control?

If other western democracies are anything to go by, party leaders get more accommodating of scandal as their margins get smaller. See Theresa May letting an MP credibly accused (and later convicted) of rape back into the party in order to win a confidence vote...

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I think we need to take a moment to consider what a special election in any remotely competitive seat will look like in a House with a majority in the low single digits.

That also makes me realize, what's going to happen if a Representative is involved in a major scandal? Would there be pressure for them to resign even if it would mean flipping control?

what happens if there's a death/resignation and the House is 217-217? Does VP make it a majority? Is there any law covering that?

Best I can tell, VP has no role in the House - their role in the upper chamber is specifically tied to their constitutionallyy-mandated role as President of the Senate. As befits it's tone, the House just appears to be a free for all.

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I have had three scenarios mulling over in my head, cause straight line partisanship seems likely to doom this upcoming House to procedural changes in control, no matter the precise outcome.

1) Someone flips into the majority to give it breathing room. There's a handful of people in both caucuses who could pull it off.

2) IDC or Alaska V2.0. Some group of legislators agrees to give what in parliamentary systems is called 'confidence and support' in exchange for the choice committee chairs. Of course they are likely to face the same fate and lose in primaries. Also the GOP seemingly would have a harder time doing this cause they are already trying to divide up the legislative spoils, so accommodation would anger their caucus.

3) "Caucus of Power." A group of legislators from both sides get together and tell the partisans that anything they want requires them. Probably led by the machine pols from the mid-Atlantic. Play one group of 210ish against the other. Put their own candidate in the speakers chair, take the committee chairs, and and generally try to run the chamber similar to an Italian-style technocratic 'don't rock the boat' government.

Some kind of confidence and supply agreement would be fascinating, but I assume heads would explode on one side of the aisle, as members break party loyalty in an otherwise hyperpolarised, hyper-partisan environment.

_{Y'all need some Ulster Unionists (or equivalent) who agree to pass budgets, no questions asked, in exchange for some local money. Only mostly joking - that's how we *always* resolve disputes like this over here.}

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In case you haven’t yet overdosed on schadenfreude, these results seem to have made the other end of the horseshoe very angry too!
https://twitter.com/jacobin/status/1591083343268827137?s=46&t=ElgoQ0VJJwRtHO...

The instinct to look at any election, let alone this particular cycle, and say “our team won, here’s an itemised list as to why that’s bad” is a part of hard-left discourse that I will just never understand.

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Apparently there's a letter circulating among Senate Republicans trying to postpone leadership elections scheduled for Wednesday.

One of the main Senators behind it is... Rick Scott.

https://i.imgur.com/g3emCyU.png

Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056?ref_src=twsrc%5E...

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If they oust McConnell, I guess that means the $9 million McConnell spent to win Murkowski’s loyalty is moot.

I believe the peak-chaos (implausible but amusing to speculate) outcome here goes as follows:

• Senate GOP very narrowly win NV, GA, for a 51-49 GOP senate.
• Senate GOP oust McConnell, and replace him with Scott (with McConnell's funding of the AK Senate race the clear undertone for his removal).
• Murkowski makes a bid show about the party swinging to the right, and caucuses with the Dems in return for chairmanship of the Energy and Natural Resources Committee, handing them Senate control back.

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Unless something absolutely buck-wild happens, Lisa Murkowski is going to win her fourth term in the Senate, having never won a majority of the initial popular vote - although thanks to RCV she will technically win that majority when everything is tallied up on the 23rd.

For the record:

• 2004: 48.6%
• 2010: 39.5%
• 2016: 44.4%
• 2022: 42.8% (80% of votes declared thus far)

Alaska remains fascinating.

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Six public backers so far:
https://mobile.twitter.com/maxpcohen/status/1591149996929581056

Are they trying to postpone until new members are elected?

If that is the case and dems win NV, AZ, and GA, doesn't this movement have almost a quarter of people it needs to out McConnell (6 backers, 49 GOP senators, 25 for majority)?

Are there 19 others that would back it?

I'm suspecting most of the backers will be freshmen or very anti-establishment people

I don't think they seriously expect to beat McConnell. I think they're playing a similar game to the one UK Conservatives play - where you essentially force a vote of confidence, show that the boss only has the support of 60-70% of their members. Essentially showing that McConnell's authority is shaky, and that it's in his interests to either stand down of his own voalition, or set out a timetable for doing so.

That requires you to have the numbers to do so behind the scenes though - so fair chance this fizzles out if McConnell's still got leverage over most members.

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CCM down less than 1,000 with over 25k left in Clark.

He's dead, Jim!

Damn it Jim, I’m a doctor, not a pundit.

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Imagine being Rick Scott. All you have to do, in order to win the Senate, is pick up one seat. Inflation is at a 40 year high. The President’s approvals are lacklustre. Precedent is on your side.

And then, well…

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We must spend the next thousand generations breeding the election prediction Kwisatz Haderach.

I must not fear. Fear is the vote-killer.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/dwbeard/status/1591244524743188480

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Little bit of schadenfreude, from 12 months ago:

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Don't you folks ever sleep?

For some of us, all the fun happens when we're asleep - woke up to new 20 pages, and immediately thought "ok, someone's just won their race, probably in AZ".

Very glad to catch up and find out it was Kelly and not Lake!