UK General Discussion:The Rt. Hon Alex Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, Populist Hero

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And that’s not even counting Richard Leonard, a born and bred Yorkshireman (with an accent to match), who was leader of the Labour group at Holyrood until early year.

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Number 10 saying that Pincher admitted it, so there doesn't need to be any further investigations or sanctions. I do wonder just how long this self-evidently risible "line" can prevail.

Neil Parish has, pardon the phrasing, screwed them.

By losing the whip, and then resigning over a bad, but not that bad scandal, he’s inviting comparisons whenever a colleague subsequently does something worse.

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Update to the above. Before this afternoon, Parish was just inadvertently screwing the Tory party. Now he’s doing it on purpose:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1542879739433689088
Sure, he’s bitter about having to resign. But somehow, he’s made a more consistent, and reasonable argument on penalties for abusive MPs than either the PM or the leader of the SNP have in the past fortnight.

Tractor porn man has almost become the voice of reason. What an absolute state we’re in.

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Speaking of her, her constituency was South West Surrey, now held by one Jeremy Hunt: archetypal stockbroker belt around places like Godalming and Haslemere.  YouGov have done another of their MRPs covering a selection of constituencies, this time seats currently held by the Tories but with the Lib Dems on over 20% in 2019: article here.  Perhaps the most striking of the individual seat projections (though, like all individual seat projections, deserving of something of a pinch of salt) is that Hunt would lose that seat to the Lib Dems.  It's not even shown as particularly close.

That analysis throws out some wild hypotheticals. Henley, the safe Tory seat held by Johnson in the 2000s, and Helseltine before him is one of those shown to be with a victory margin of just 2%. That’s a seat that’s been comfortably Tory since creation, with the exception of a single term in 1906 - when it was swept up in the Liberal Party landslide.

I know it’s become cliche to say that the Tories will struggle to contain both the post-industrial heavily Leave-voting seats in the North, and remain-friendly seats with high numbers of graduates in the South (Red and Blue Wall respectively). But it’s interesting to see signs they’re facing significant vulnerabilities on both fronts - suggesting one of two things: either their attempt to placate both groups simultaneously is failing, or voters in the South have shifted tactically to the Lib Dems as part of an anti-Tory strategy.

I’d add that, the worst Tory election nights are ones where the voters don’t have a grudge against either the Lib Dems or Labour, and so tactical voting is widespread enough to make a impact. It’s what made 1997 go from bad to worse for the Conservatives - typified by the fact that the Lib Dems more than doubled their seat total, on a vote share smaller than they received in 1992.

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New this afternoon - the Times is reporting fresh allegations against Pincher, this time at the 2021 Party Conference.

The Times apparently has contemporaneous evidence - texts from the victim at the time of the alleged event, discussing it with a friend. It’s further evidence of a pattern of behaviour, and makes it harder to see Pincher surviving as a member of the Commons.

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New this afternoon - the Times is reporting fresh allegations against Pincher, this time at the 2021 Party Conference.

The Times apparently has contemporaneous evidence - texts from the victim at the time of the alleged event, discussing it with a friend. It’s further evidence of a pattern of behaviour, and makes it harder to see Pincher surviving as a member of the Commons.

Lots of people think the Tories would hold a Tamworth byelection even now (and yes, I am inclined to agree with that myself) and that might make it a bit more likely he is pushed out over this.

Aye - it would definitely be a heavy lift for Labour if the last couple of cycles are anything to go by. Ironically, I could see some staff in no.10 briefing a by-election as a chance for the government to “reset” the narrative (especially if they win) - even though the circumstances of such an election would be pretty damning in themselves.

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JAVID HAS RESIGNED

Is it finally the Ides of March?

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Rishi Sunak has resigned - saying that he recognises this might be his final ministerial post, but that he cannot continue under Johnson’s leadership.

Huge moment.

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Sunak replaced Javid as Chancellor, brought in as a Johnson loyalist. Quite symbolic.

Aye - the old hand and the understudy who supplanted him. There’s a part of me that wonders if they won’t be running on a unity ticket by the end of the week.

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Fleet Street is now doing the ring around to see who in the cabinet will vouch for Johnson and commit to staying in government.

Those who have voiced their loyalty so far are Patel, Raab and Kwartang.

I understand Raab and Patel, who are almost certainly gone once Johnson goes. But Kwartang might have a future. Odd to nail your colours to the mast of a sinking ship.

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Fleet Street is now doing the ring around to see who in the cabinet will vouch for Johnson and commit to staying in government.

Those who have voiced their loyalty so far are Patel, Raab and Kwartang.

I understand Raab and Patel, who are almost certainly gone once Johnson goes. But Kwartang might have a future. Odd to nail your colours to the mast of a sinking ship.

Truss is "100% loyal" as well.

That tracks - she’s always been discussed as a “continuity candidate” for Johnson, so seems likely that she’ll try and hold on. The situation is now fluid enough that she could be *sigh* chancellor by the end of the day.

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Braverman, Trevelyn, Wallace, Dorries, Rees-Mogg, Jack still loyal. (All but Wallace will be exiled to the backbenches when the PM goes, so no great surprise).

Nadhim Zahawi, Therese Coffey, Michael Gove, George Eustace and the ministers for Wales and NI are the last holdouts.

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Fleet Street rumour mill says Simon Clarke, Secretary to the Treasury (Rishi’s old job) is being lined up as Chancellor. He tweeted out his loyalty just after Sunak resigned.

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Dorries and the Chief Whip went into No 10 together, whatever that might mean.

Health Secretary Dorries? Perish the thought.

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Lord Frost supports the resignations, and calls for the PM to resign. As ever, I’m unsure why he’s talked about as some grandee - but it’s definitely another domino.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1544379667133734917

Also resigning is the PM’s trade envoy to Monaco, Andrew Murrison MP.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AWMurrison/status/1544380831178825733

Notably, Zahawi and Coffey are still silent, and refusing to respond to correspondents from the BBC or Sky. Johnson allies say Zahawi was supportive at cabinet, but the man himself hasn’t said a word since the news broke.

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Bim Afolami, Conservative Party vice chair, just resigned live on air, during an interview on Talk TV.

Sally-Ann Hart (Amber Rudd’s successor in Hastings and Rye) has also resigned

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Jonathan Gullis has resigned as a PPS (Northern Ireland office).

F[inks] me. If he’s lost Jonathan Gullis, the man who built a career on his braying support for Johnson, in both the Commons and media, then all really is lost for Johnson.

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Saqib Bhatti MP - PPS in Dept. of Health under Javid has also resigned.

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We’ve lost another PPS - Nicola Richards:
https://mobile.twitter.com/Nicola4WBE/status/1544402731770716163?s=20&t=k9qCIfpElKIn1lW2Nc5rww

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Nadhim Zahawi (who still hasn’t commented since the resignations), has gone into Downing Street.

Guess he’s either getting a promotion (probable), or personally handing his P45 notice in (less likely, but not the strangest hypothetical mooted this evening). 

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For all of you excited for Boris' hopefully imminent demise, just remember that one of the first things that the new PM will do will likely be the implementation of "true conservative policies" to please the base.

Hope you're all on board with that. I can't wait for a swing to the right.

If the party are, as all leadership election polling suggests, planning to cede the centre ground, I’m not sure they’ll have long to play with the levers of power - given the current polling, and the eagerness of the opposition to capture that territory.

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I genuinely wonder how many more resignations the government can take while holding the “tis but a scratch” line. Surely we’re close to the breaking point now?
https://mobile.twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1544430788153954304

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Alex Chalk resigns as Solicitor General.

That’s a bigger deal than the last few resignations. No.2 in the Attorney General’s office, and a minister in various roles through the length of Johnson’s tenure.

Notably, Chalk was the name that always came up when a cabinet-level resignation was rumoured during the partygate chaos in January. His letter (linked in the tweet URL below), makes a clear reference to the cumulative effect of the scandals, so it does seem like this one was a while in the making.

Also worth noting he’s sitting on a razor-thin majority in Cheltenham - 981 votes.

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexChalkChelt/status/1544437737771655169

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Laura Trott (Dept. of Transport PPS) and Will Quince (Minister in Dept. of Education) have resigned.

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Robin Walker, another Minister in the Education Department, has resigned.

At this rate the Dept. of Education is going to be as empty as a high school during lockdown 1.

Current status in the Department:
- Secretary of State: Michelle Donelan MP
- Minister of State for Unis: VACANT
- Minister for Schools Standards: VACANT
- Minister for Children and Families: VACANT
- Minister for Apprenticeships: Alex Burghart MP
- Minister for School System: Baroness Bannan ~AA