Trump approval ratings thread, 1.4

[forgotten manatee]

Trump's approval absolutely sucks with independents, and I feel that this isn't getting its proper due in election coverage. Obama's approval with independents was bad going into the 2010 elections and this proved to be extremely costly. If Trump is doing as bad or worse than Obama was, wouldn't this also spell imminent doom at the polls?

[forgotten manatee]

Trump's approval absolutely sucks with independents, and I feel that this isn't getting its proper due in election coverage. Obama's approval with independents was bad going into the 2010 elections and this proved to be extremely costly. If Trump is doing as bad or worse than Obama was, wouldn't this also spell imminent doom at the polls?

Republicans are just hoping the Democratic brand has somehow become toxic beyond repair for no worthy reason beyond what only they believe (Puzzagate, Vince Goster, Obama Born in Kenya, etcetera etcetera...).

The GOP brand should have been DOA in 2010 after the cataclysms of 2008, yet they came roaring back. One would have to expect the Democrats could do the same, given that there were no cataclysms at the end of Obama's presidency (beyond the election of Trump).

[forgotten manatee]

It’s sad that Trump can see his approval rating tick up after mocking a sexual assault victim, but Obama suggested a white cop acted stupidly and middle America lost its god damn mind.

[forgotten manatee]

A bunch of PPP state polls from Jan. 7-8:

Alaska (N=898): 47/50

Arizona (N=741): 46/51

Colorado (N=706): 40/56

Georgia (N=943): 46/51

Iowa (N=1031): 45/52

Maine (N=1082): 40/56

North Carolina (N=949): 46/50

These don't seem great, but aren't particularly awful numbers either, except maybe for Maine. How was Obama doing in January 2011 in these states?

[forgotten manatee]

A bunch of PPP state polls from Jan. 7-8:

Alaska (N=898): 47/50

Arizona (N=741): 46/51

Colorado (N=706): 40/56

Georgia (N=943): 46/51

Iowa (N=1031): 45/52

Maine (N=1082): 40/56

North Carolina (N=949): 46/50

These don't seem great, but aren't particularly awful numbers either, except maybe for Maine. How was Obama doing in January 2011 in these states?

The relevant ones were North Carolina, Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Iowa, The only states that he barely won and eventually lost in 2012 were Indiana (which he lost badly) and North Carolina.

Of course, Obama had more room for losing states than does Trump. That's the difference between  304 and 365 electoral votes.

Look at Trump's approval ratings in Arizona, Iowa, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. The fitting word is "execrable". 

Based on a chart I found on HuffPo, Obama's approval rating in Ohio in January 2011 averaged 43.7%, with disapproval just north of 50%. Of course, he ended up winning the state by over 50%. So I'm very cautious on assuming Trump is DOA in any swing state just because he is polling in the low 40s there. Obviously Trump is stronger in Ohio than Obama was as his approvals have held up better, but I'd also bet that Trump's base of support is stronger in Arizona than recent polls suggest. I'm pessimistic that the state is going to flip in 2 years.

[forgotten manatee]

Another key state:

Wisconsin: Marquette U., Jan. 16-20, 800 RV (change from Oct.)

Approve 44 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (+2)

Vote to re-elect Trump or vote for someone else?

Definitely Trump 27
Probably Trump 12
Probably someone else 8
Definitely someone else 49

Net: Trump 39, someone else 57

Results

Definitely someone else at 49% is very encouraging. Tough to turn around numbers like that.

Considering that Trump got a lower % than Bush did while losing the state both times in 2000/2004, and he got less raw votes than Romney who lost the state by 7%, it was always unlikely to vote for him again. But of course it's going to be a 100% tossup because muh 2016.

What is a raw vote? Asking for a friend.

[forgotten manatee]

So.. Trump just lost in a rout on his signature issue, the Wall, though his supposed signature strength, the negotiation. And not only was it a rout, it was the most highly visible political standoff of the last 25 years. I have a feeling we may see a break in the blind loyalty of his base, one that will be reflected in his approval numbers. Does anyone else agree?

[forgotten manatee]

Gallup, Feb. 1-10, 1016 adults (prior poll Jan. 27)

Approve 44 (+7)
Disapprove 52 (-7)

This is extremely depressing. Thankfully he's still underwater.

[forgotten manatee]

WTF is happening? Why is Trump gaining?

Because his approval rating only dropped because of the shutdown.

A shutdown that left millions without work, cost taxpayers millions  and that  ultimately pointless. Why exactly should his approval rating ever go back up after what he did? Goldfish memory indeed.

[forgotten manatee]

From what's come out so far, I think the basic findings of the Mueller report are: Yeah, we know Trump broke the law, but we just can't prove it beyond a reasonable doubt.

I guess happily taking a meeting with the Russians to get dirt on your opponent and then lying about it doesn't count as collusion. It is still good to be white, male, and rich in America -- and that is what Trump is really saying when he says "Keep America Great".

I'll be avoiding the news for the next couple weeks because I just can't mentally deal with Trump's victory parade, which will be parroted ad naseum by our analysis free, lowest common denominator mass media. Maybe it is a good thing that the stupid god damn population of this country has the collective memory of a goldfish.

[forgotten manatee]

From what's come out so far, I think the basic findings of the Mueller report are: Yeah, we know Trump broke the law, but we just can't prove it beyond a reasonable doubt.

I guess happily taking a meeting with the Russians to get dirt on your opponent and then lying about it doesn't count as collusion. It is still good to be white, male, and rich in America -- and that is what Trump is really saying when he says "Keep America Great".

I'll be avoiding the news for the next couple weeks because I just can't mentally deal with Trump's victory parade, which will be parroted ad naseum by our analysis free, lowest common denominator mass media. Maybe it is a good thing that the stupid god damn population of this country has the collective memory of a goldfish.

Truly the two of us are kindred spirits. That's exactly how I feel. Despair doesn't even begin to describe it.

I wouldn't despair about it too much. I'm just glad Trump is already an old and serially unhealthy fartbag; he can't live forever, and after 4-8 years of alienating the soon-to-be-dominant millennial generation, the GOP probably can't survive without him. The Republicans arrogantly assume that my cohort is going to become more conservative once we "have to pay taxes" (which is insulting in its own right), but they'll find that we actually intend on forcing our views upon the declining Boomer generation. There's a real possibility that Trump and the GOP will both be dead in 15 years, so there's that.

[forgotten manatee]

From what's come out so far, I think the basic findings of the Mueller report are: Yeah, we know Trump broke the law, but we just can't prove it beyond a reasonable doubt.

I guess happily taking a meeting with the Russians to get dirt on your opponent and then lying about it doesn't count as collusion. It is still good to be white, male, and rich in America -- and that is what Trump is really saying when he says "Keep America Great".

I'll be avoiding the news for the next couple weeks because I just can't mentally deal with Trump's victory parade, which will be parroted ad naseum by our analysis free, lowest common denominator mass media. Maybe it is a good thing that the stupid god damn population of this country has the collective memory of a goldfish.

Truly the two of us are kindred spirits. That's exactly how I feel. Despair doesn't even begin to describe it.

I wouldn't despair about it too much. I'm just glad Trump is already an old and serially unhealthy fartbag; he can't live forever, and after 4-8 years of alienating the soon-to-be-dominant millennial generation, the GOP probably can't survive without him. The Republicans arrogantly assume that my cohort is going to become more conservative once we have to pay taxes" (which is insulting in its own right), but I think they'll find that we actually intend on forcing out own views upon the declining Boomer generation. There's a real possibility that Trump and the GOP will both be dead in 15 years, so there's that.

I appreciate your mild optimism, but I don't know about that. American voters, far too often give the GOP the benefit of the doubt after eight years of a Democratic President who succeeds them and cleans up their messes. And if Trump wins another four years, he will almost definitely be succeeded by a Democrat in 2024, but by then I fear that it may have been too late to curb anything Trump has done. It will be even worse if Breyer and Ginsburg die. I don't think this country will be salvageable after eight years of Trump.

But by "American voters", you're mostly thinking of what has happened under the Baby Boomers -- a largely selfish, conservative generation that bought into the concept of voting itself more money under Ronald Reagan and never really looked back. I'm not convinced that these trends are going to continue once millennials are the largest voting bloc.

But yeah, I hear you on the danger to the Supreme Court. Should it take on a harsh conservative bent with the departure of Ginsberg and Breyer on Trump's watch, the next Democrat will have to expand the court or see to it that Kavanaugh and Gorsuch are rectified.

[forgotten manatee]

From what's come out so far, I think the basic findings of the Mueller report are: Yeah, we know Trump broke the law, but we just can't prove it beyond a reasonable doubt.

I guess happily taking a meeting with the Russians to get dirt on your opponent and then lying about it doesn't count as collusion. It is still good to be white, male, and rich in America -- and that is what Trump is really saying when he says "Keep America Great".

I'll be avoiding the news for the next couple weeks because I just can't mentally deal with Trump's victory parade, which will be parroted ad naseum by our analysis free, lowest common denominator mass media. Maybe it is a good thing that the stupid god damn population of this country has the collective memory of a goldfish.

Truly the two of us are kindred spirits. That's exactly how I feel. Despair doesn't even begin to describe it.

I wouldn't despair about it too much. I'm just glad Trump is already an old and serially unhealthy fartbag; he can't live forever, and after 4-8 years of alienating the soon-to-be-dominant millennial generation, the GOP probably can't survive without him. The Republicans arrogantly assume that my cohort is going to become more conservative once we have to pay taxes" (which is insulting in its own right), but I think they'll find that we actually intend on forcing out own views upon the declining Boomer generation. There's a real possibility that Trump and the GOP will both be dead in 15 years, so there's that.

I appreciate your mild optimism, but I don't know about that. American voters, far too often give the GOP the benefit of the doubt after eight years of a Democratic President who succeeds them and cleans up their messes. And if Trump wins another four years, he will almost definitely be succeeded by a Democrat in 2024, but by then I fear that it may have been too late to curb anything Trump has done. It will be even worse if Breyer and Ginsburg die. I don't think this country will be salvageable after eight years of Trump.

But by "American voters", you're mostly thinking of what has happened under the Baby Boomers -- a largely selfish, conservative generation that bought into the concept of voting itself more money under Ronald Reagan and never really looked back. I'm not convinced that these trends are going to continue once millennials are the largest voting bloc.

True. I just don't know when that will be. Though there is also the possibility that the Republican Party finally re-brands itself by that point. That would be for the better, actually.

It is to your credit that you are open to a re-branding for the GOP.

As for where the Dems go next..

What Mueller’s (Apparent) Dud Means For Democrats

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/03/barr-summary-mueller-report-what-means-democrats-politics-trump-2020.html?utm_medium=s1&utm_campaign=nym&utm_source=fb&fbclid=IwAR03LnccvC9qBtTQ6gkDvE1xJxdZAGnkozyezu6g3UQMI0dLIYaYArd3wj8

[forgotten manatee]

Maybe it is a good thing that the stupid god damn population of this country has the collective memory of a goldfish.

Yeah, the good news for Democrats is they have plenty of time to clean the egg off their face and turn attention to the next shiny object. Nobody's going to remember this in a year and a half, much less vote based on it, especially not "swing voters."

THERE IS NO EGG ON ANY DEMOCRATS' FACES. There are legitimate unanswered questions from this whole thing, and I've yet to see anyone offer a satisfying explanation for them. Don Jr was clearly trying to conspire with Russian agents to obtain damaging information on Clinton. Why doesn't that lead to an indictment? Why did he and others lie about the meeting? Why did the POTUS dictate a misleading statement on the meeting? Separately, what does it mean that a senior person on the Trump campaign directed Roger Stone to reach out to Wikileaks? Is this not attempted conspiracy as well? If the firing of James Comey was done to shut down the Russia investigation, as the President admitted on national television, how is that not obstruction of justice?

These questions get to the heart of what happened in 2016, and they remain unanswered. And they are being totally ignored by our dumb mainstream journalists or subverted by cynical conservative ones.

There's no justice in this country.

[forgotten manatee]

. But at the moment there's no way to spin this as anything other than a massive black eye for the Democrats.

Um, are you Chris Cillizza? Thanks for the expert take..

[forgotten manatee]

. But at the moment there's no way to spin this as anything other than a massive black eye for the Democrats.

Um, are you Chris Cillizza? Thanks for the expert take..

Just common sense. But you're welcome!

Gosh, take your Clinton Kaine avatar off your profile if you're going to associate it with nonsense takes like that. Its embarrassing.

[forgotten manatee]

. But at the moment there's no way to spin this as anything other than a massive black eye for the Democrats.

Um, are you Chris Cillizza? Thanks for the expert take..

Just common sense. But you're welcome!

Gosh, take your Clinton Kaine avatar off your profile if you're going to associate it with nonsense takes like that. Its embarrassing.

I wasn't aware it was a requirement to suspend reality and replace it with flagrant partisan hackery in order to have voted for the Clinton/Kaine ticket.

You remind me of the people who unironically insisted Obama won the first debate in 2012 or thought the Comey letter would actually help Hillary, lol.

Except not at all! Sheesh -- death, taxes, and stupid takes from IceSpear -- the three certainties in life, I guess. The people who have this wrong are the ones spinning the report as exoneration, and the ones who are not asking the right questions because they're making blanket statements about clouds being lifted or saying things like the Democrats have egg on their forces. Maybe the lowest common denominator media like CNN and some Dems worked themselves into a fever pitch over the trajectory of the investigation, but most of the Democratic figures I follow (to include Harris, Biden, Pelosi, Warren, Sanders, and Booker) took a pretty measured stance.

[forgotten manatee]

The big political trick that Donald Trump still has is that he can make people loathe politics so much that they give up because they don't want to be dragged into something that soils them. That did not work so well in 2018 as it did in 2016, and I doubt that Trump will be any more effective in 2020 at that than he was in 2016.

No.  The Democrats have effectively done this themselves.  You have Kamala Harris that supported Jussie Smollet.  You have Beto O'Rourke running campaigns of platitude and foolishly buying into the Russia collusion conspiracy.  You have Warren pretending to be a Native American while denouncing people for cultural appropriation.  You have Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.  But yuck.  White men.  

You are so full of toxic garbage, just stop.

The fact is, the President's son received an email that explicitly included an offer from the Russian government to meet and deliver dirt on the Clinton campaign, and the President's son gleefully accepted the offer, bringing along the President's son in law and campaign manager to the meeting. Every campaign hand in the room met with the full expectation of working with Russian agents, and came away empty handed only because the Russians failed to bring anything with them. Not a single person affiliated with the campaign decided to report the offer or the meeting to the FBI, meaning that the highest levels of the campaign knew that the Russian government was highly interested in helping Donald J. Trump win the presidency -- and did nothing. In the aftermath, the participants all lied about the intent and purpose of the meeting, and the president himself dictated a misleading statement on what the meeting was about. Not only that, we know that someone senior in the Trump campaign directed Roger Stone to make contact with Wikileaks, a suspected Russian tool, not to mention all the shadiness around Trump calling for a massive e-mail dump right as it was about to happen.

I'm sorry Hollywood, but you can't wrap yourself in right-wing media propaganda and say that Harris, O'Rourke, and other Democrats were rabidly barking up the wrong tree. Red avatars on this forum have been living through 2 years of a steady drip-drip of revelations, revelations that are documented in the form of recovered e-mails or other forms of documentation. I'm not sure what you've been living through, but it clearly has been tinged by Fox News derangement syndrome. Unfortunately for the con artists at your favorite state propaganda network and their counterparts in the West Wing, there is plenty of evidence to suggest wrong-doing, to suggest operating in bad faith; furthermore there is irrefutable evidence of willingness to get Russian help -- which should be criminal, as the campaign sought something of value from a hostile foreign power.  How that itself is not prosecutable blows my mind, but to suggest that there is no there there is just absolute crap.

[forgotten manatee]

I wonder if President Donald J. Trump unleashed a massive rip roaring fart of relief upon hearing that he was getting out of this one too.

[forgotten manatee]

Trump is beyond toxic in northern Virginia, which is basically a massive (and growing larger yet) DC suburb. Voters here were deeply impacted by the long and pointless federal government shutdown. There’s also a decent concentration of veterans who may not be liberal but also find his feud with the late John McCain abhorrent. Not to mention the concentration of well educated voters especially in the northern parts of the state. I think he’ll have a hard time winning this state in 2020 — regardless of the shenanigans going on in Richmond.