🇵🇹 Portugal's politics and elections 4.0 (Madeira snap regional election: 26 May 2024)

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Q5: Do you consider that this Government will last until the end of its term?

68% No
21% Yes
11% Undecided

Q6: What are your expectations about the duration of the Government?

 49% Between 1 and 2 years
 41% 1 year
   8% Between 2 and 3 years
0.4% More than 3 years but not reaching 4 years
   2% Undecided

What do people think the full term is??

21% say it'll last the whole term, but only ~10% think it'll last more than 2 years?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

GfK/Metris/ICS/ISCTE poll for Expresso newspaper/SIC TV on the 50 years of the 1974 revolution:

Q1: Opinion on these statements:

Strong leader without elections or parliament: 43% Disagree; 34% Agree
Until 1974, Portugal was better in terms of its identity: 43% Disagree; 29% Agree
Portugal would be great again if it returned to Salazar's ideals: 54% Disagree; 23% Agree
Talk of anti-fascism is an outdated thing: 36% Agree; 35% Disagree

Q2: Degree of satisfaction with democracy?

57% A lot/acceptable
41% Very little/none
  2% Undecided

Q3: Portugal is a democracy...

44% With a lot of defects
42% With small defects
  8% Full democracy
  4% It's not a democracy
  2% Undecided

Q4: Compared with 1974, rate the improvement of the following areas:

Healthcare: 74% Better; 13% Worse
Standard of living: 71% Better; 16% Worse
Education: 71% Better; 17% Worse
Social Security: 68% Better; 13% Worse
Economy: 62% Better; 19% Worse
Environment: 60% Better; 20% Worse
Social coexistence: 57% Better; 24% Worse
National Independence: 51% Better; 20% Worse
Cultural heritage protection: 48% Better; 21% Worse
Housing: 47% Better; 34% Worse
Social inequality: 46% Better; 23% Worse
Regional inequality: 42% Better; 22% Worse
Justice: 40% Better; 36% Worse
Unemployment: 42% Worse; 34% Better
Crime and security: 66% Worse; 19% Better
Corruption: 66% Worse; 14% Better

Q5: To what extent do you think Portuguese society has changed since the 25th of April?

45% A lot
39% Considerable
13% Very little
  1% No change
  2% Undecided

Q6: And how would you rate these changes?

56% More positive than negative
35% As positive as it was negative
  9% More negative than positive

Poll conducted between 20 March and 4 April 2024. Polled 1,206 voters. MoE of 2.80%.

some of these are extremely concerning.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Paulo Cafôfo, PS leader, says that PS and JPP together have more votes and seats than the PSD and that an alternative government is possible.

uh... how? they'd need either CDS+IL+PAN or CHEGA support (or at least confidence) for that, and while PAN seems likely and IL may be possible, CDS and especially CHEGA seem like total non-starters.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

how much of LIVRE's rise is due to Tavares being relatively popular?