2024 ROC Prez and Legislative elections Jan 13th

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

is it reasonable to draw some parallels between this and 2000's election? Blue splits with an independent/3rd party candidate who gets a decent bit of green support but mostly takes from blue, causing the DPP candidate to win?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

So this seems to lean more to the "bad for KMT" loss you were talking about, right? TPP only 4-5% behind KMT definitely makes things tough

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

As I so often do, here's a fully proportional legislature.

Taiwan/ROC 2024

DPP: 41 seats (-10)
KMT: 39 seats (-12)
TPP: 25 seats (+17)
NPP: 3 seats (+3)
TOPEP: 1 seat (+1)
GPT: 1 seat (+1)
TSP: 1 seat (+1)
PFP: 1 seat (+1)
MLP: 1 seat (+1)


MLP [0.3678 quotas] gets the last seat over TSU [0.3557 quotas]  by 1480 votes.

Pan Green has 42 seats (DPP+TSP) and Pan Blue has 40 seats (KMT+PFP). TPP holds the balance, as expected.

Jaichind, do you have any insight regarding NPP, TOPEP, GPT, and MLP, and which way each would lean? And what would this legislature end up looking like in terms of governing, considering that TPP is the deciding bloc? Would they abstain here too, or is their influence too large in this case to really pull that off? Could they get the speakership with DPP support as DPP says Ko wanted?