Let me remind everyone that in last year's Senate election in South Carolina, polls during the final month or two indicated that the two major candidates were headed to a photo finish. I was skeptical of those polls because they greatly contradicted the fundamentals of that state. It turns out my skepticism was well founded, as the final margin was in the double digits. Here, I suspect a similar dynamic may end up playing out - where the incumbent ends up surviving by a larger-than-expected margin due to the fundamentals of the state winning out.
the main difference here is that it's an off-year. I actually think things would have been close (though a narrow Graham win) if that election happened in 2019.
