Post-Realignment Electoral Map? (user search)
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  Post-Realignment Electoral Map? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Post-Realignment Electoral Map?  (Read 13169 times)
King Lear
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Posts: 981
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« on: January 14, 2018, 02:48:38 PM »
« edited: January 14, 2018, 03:26:04 PM by King Lear »

This is what I think a even Presidential Election map will look like in the 2030s.

Basically, the trends of 2016 continue, with Republicans flipping the entire Midwest except Illinois (which will remain Safe Democratic, due to the fact that heavily Democratic Chicago is holding its population while heavily Republican downstate Illinois is shrinking rapidly), while Democrats will turn Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina into true Tossups due to their diversifying populations (right now Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina Lean Republican). However Texas and Georgia will still be Lean Republican states (their Likely Republican today), which along with the flipping of the entire Midwest except Illinois, will keep Republicans competitive at the presidential level much longer then expected. Meanwhile, the Northeast (except New Hampshire, Maine, and Pennsylvania) and West Coast will remain Safe Democratic and states such as Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico will solidify their Democratic leans. Overall, this future electoral map is not that great for Democrats because even with the diversification of the Sun Belt they still won't flip Texas and Georgia (due to their staunchly Conservative White populations), and because of them losing the ability to win Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, Ohio, and Iowa due to Uneducated Whites trending even more Republican (they'll be voting 80-20 Republican by then while their educated counterparts will be voting 50-50), their only route to victory will be sweeping the three Tossup states of Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina with high Nonwhite turnout, and if they fail to do that they'll probably be winning the popular vote and losing the electoral collage a lot.
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King Lear
Jr. Member
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Posts: 981
Russian Federation


« Reply #1 on: January 27, 2018, 03:05:07 PM »

I made some slight changes to my map to make it a little more realistic.

Basically, I decided to shift Texas to Likely Republican because I really don't see the state going Democratic at any point in the next 20 years, due to the overwhelmingly Republican white population, along with the fact Republicans do better with Hispanics their then in any other state, and neither of these things will change any time soon. I also shifted Michigan to Lean Republican, because in the next 10 years Detroits population will probably stabilize somewhere around 500,000, and combined with declining rural areas and a slowly diversyifing population (by Midwestern standards), a Likely Republican rating is a little to harsh. Finally, I decided to switch Colorado and Nevada from Likely to Lean Democratic, and New Mexico from Safe to Likely Democratic to account for the rural areas in those states. 
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