2018 Senate Rankings

[King Lear]

I admit my last post on 2018 Senate ratings was a bit Trollish, because I eliminated all tossups and claimed Nelson and Browns seats where already “Lean Republican”. So I have decided to post my realistic 2018 Senate ratings with the Tossup rating reintroduced:
Safe Republican: TX, MS, TN, WY, NE, and UT
Likely Republican: MO, IN, and ND
Lean Republican: AZ, WV, and MT
Tossup: FL, NV, and OH
Lean Democratic: PA, MI, and WI
Likely Democratic: MN-regular, MN-special, ME, VA, and NM
Safe Democratic: CA, NY, MA, CT, RI, VT, DE, NJ, MD, WA, and HI
This basically shows how bad a map it is for Democrats in that I’m projecting Republicans to gain anywhere from 4-7 seats. For Democrats to flip the senate their going to have to sweep every seat I don’t consider Safe Republican, including the 5 double-digit Trump seats they hold that I consider either Leaning or Likely Republican (WV, ND, MT, IN, and MO), plus holding their two tossup seats (FL and OH), and flipping the Republican seat in Nevada which I consider a Tossup along with the Republican seat in Arizona I consider Lean Republican. For this to happen Democrats are going to need a massive wave that flips the house by a large margin, for I can imagine a scenario where Democrats narrowly flip the house but still lose seats in the senate due to the horrible map.

[King Lear]

2018 Senate Results:
Democratic seats: 42 (-7)
Republican seats: 58 (+7)
This is the worst case scenario for Democrats.

[King Lear]

Here is a visual representation of my 2018 Senate Ratings.

Dark Red=Safe Democratic
Medium Red=Likely Democratic
Light Red=Lean Democratic
Green=Tossup
Light Blue=Lean Republican
Medium Blue=Likely Republican
Dark Blue=Safe Republican

[King Lear]

Here’s my top 10 senate seats listed by Likelihood to flip:
1) Missouri
2) Indiana
3) North Dakota
4) Montana
5) West Virginia
6) Florida
7) Ohio
8) Nevada
9) Arizona
10) Wisconsin

[King Lear]

Connecticut and Maryland trade places. With Malloy out of the CT race, the Gubernatorial just isn't going to be so strongly R that it brings down Murphy, and the Gubernatorial was the only reason why CT wasn't Safe D. Maryland, however, has Manning. If she wins, the race turns into a tossup.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, MA, RI, ME, VT, CT, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MD, MN, NM, VA, MN-Special, DE, OH, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
MI, WV, ND, WI

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, PA, FL, MT, AZ

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
NE, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(MN-Special will be represented by DC in the visual aid)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seat

(btw, if we get a special election in MS, I'll have the Maine districts represent the two special elections)

That makes no sense that you rate Pennsylvania Lean Democratic, while all the other states around it are Likely or Safe Democratic. I also think you are being to friendly towards most of the Trump-state Democrats, especially those in states that supported him by double-digits (saying Donnelly, Manchin, Hentkemp, and Tester are favored to win reelection and that Mccaskill has even odds is utterly laughable). Finally, their is no scenario where the Texas and Tennessee senate races will become competitive, and the Florida and Ohio senate races shouldn't be anything but tossup.

[King Lear]

So I should probably update this map. Due to the Democrats' declining position in the GCB and the fact that I had probably already overestimated many of the Ds here, I have some updates to make.

But first, some good news. Heinrich voted no on the CR, so New Mexico moves back from Very Likely D to Safe D.

As for everything else, I've been too bullish on my boy Sherrod Brown for too long. I don't see him losing because of the national environment (weakened as it is) and because of all the structural advantages he has, but Ohio should still only be Likely D, albeit a strong Likely D. Then there's Wisconsin. All the outside money going into the race is going to be trouble for Tammy Baldwin, making her the most vulnerable of the Obama/Trump Dems. Meanwhile, I have been too bearish on Bob Casey in Pennsylvania because of one poll showing him with negative approvals. So WI and PA are trading places. And that's it. Nothing too big, just some corrections and adjustments to a weaker national environment and the realities of these races.

Safely Democratic: This state will not, in any universe, vote Republican for the Senate under any circumstances.
CA, NY, NM, MA, RI, ME, VT, CT, WA, HI

Very Likely Democratic: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Republican for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MD, MN, VA, MN-Special, DE, NJ

Likely Democratic: Odds are that this state will send a Democrat to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Republican to win instead.
OH, MI, WV, ND, PA

Leans Democratic: The Democrat is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Republican wins.
NV, WI, FL, AZ, MT

Tilts Democratic: The Democrat is favored over the Republican, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
IN

Tossup: I have absolutely no idea which way this state will go.
MO

Tilts Republican: The Republican is favored over the Democrat, but just barely. Expect this one to be close.
Nothing here

Leans Republican: The Republican is undoubtably favored, but the race is very much competitive. Don't be surprised if the Democrat wins.
TN

Likely Republican: Odds are that this state will send a Republican to the Senate, but circumstances make it plausible for the Democrat to win instead.
TX

Very Likely Republican: It's almost impossible to imagine this state voting Democratic for the Senate, but it could conceivably happen in the most perfect of perfect storms.
MS

Safely Republican: This state will not, in any universe, vote Democratic for the Senate under any circumstances.
NE, WY, UT

And here's a visual aid!
(MN-Special will be represented by DC in the visual aid)

Democrats: 50 seats
Republicans: 49 seats
Pure tossup: 1 seat

(btw, if we get a special election in MS, I'll have the Maine districts represent the two special elections)

These 2018 Senate Ratings are ridiculous, how on earth do you believe Nevada and Arizona are leaning Democratic (Trump won Arizona and nearly won Nevada, while Nevada is represented by the relatively popular Dean Heller, Republicans are probably going to nominate Mcsally in Arizona who is a perfect fit for the state, making both states tough pickups for Democrats)? and how can Democrats be favored in 4 of the 5 double-digit Trump States LOL. As much as my 2018 Senate ratings (which I conveniently put in my Sig so everyone can see them), have been criticized for being “Hackish” and “Trollish”, at least their based largely on how the states voted in the last presidential election combined with the strength of the incumbents, while yours are just based on what you want to happen.

[King Lear]

LimoLiberal Official 2018 Senate Rankings
4/4/18 (I plan to do this monthly)
Including commentary. Rating change shown in parentheses using >>

Safe R:
NE
WY
MS
UT

Likely R:
TX
MS-Special (new entry)

Lean R:
ND
MO
TN (Likely R >> Lean R) - Bredesen has led in some recent polls here, but TN is red and it's early

Tilt R:
IN
FL

Tossup:
AZ (Tilt R >> Tossup) - McSally looks weak in early campaigning and polls show Sinema leading

Tilt D:
NV
MT
WV (Tossup >> Tilt D) - Blankenship has surged, and therefore Manchin's chances have gotten better
WI (Tossup >> Tilt D) - Some sort of blue wave is descending on Wisconsin. Enough for Baldwin?

Lean D:
MN-Special
OH (Tossup >> Lean D) - Sherrod Brown looks like he's thriving in Ohio with good approvals and leads in recent polling

Likely D:
MI
NJ
VA (Safe D if Stewart wins R primary)
PA (Lean D >> Likely D) PA-18 and Lame Lou? Don't think Casey is losing.

Safe D:
MA
CT
RI
MN
WA
DE
MD
CA
NY

Likely I:
ME (Lean I if Lepage enters)

Safe I:
VT

Without allocating tossups, my current projections are 53 Republicans, 44 Democrats, 2 Independents,  and 1 Tossup.

Democrats pick up Nevada, while Republicans pick up North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and Florida.

These are the fairest and most accurate Senate ratings I’ve seen from any poster on this site (beside myself). My only criticism is that I think your being to soft on Tester, Manchin, and Brown (I don’t think their favored for reelection).