2024 Senate race rankings

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IMO, I have trouble seeing Texas as more Republican than Ohio. Ohio went from D +12.4 in 2006, to +6 in 2012, and +6.8 in 2018. Meanwhile, Texas went from R +25.7, +15.9, to +2.6 in the same time frame. Those are huge shifts. The factors in play causing these shifts in both states (population booming in Texas, suburbs becoming more D-friendly vs. population loss in Ohio, WWC souring on Dems) is not stopping anytime soon.

Brown can be saved with Biden on the ticket and some cross-over support even if the GOP nominee is winning the state, but I wouldn't bet on it. I think Brown or a replacement D loses by anywhere from 4 to 10 points depending on the candidate, state of the race, etc. Meanwhile, if Biden is able to keep Texas close, there's a good candidate, and a last minute surge brings them both over the finish line, I can see the Texas DEM nominee losing from only 3 or 4 points to winning by 1 or 2 points against Cruz. Of course, there can be another poor candidate like the 2020 Dem.

Anyways, I think Ohio will vote fairly to the right of Texas, but not overwhelmingly so.

[CookieDamage]

GOP gains 3 seats.
Lean R - Sherrod Brown is defeated for re-election (assuming he runs)
Likely R - Jon Tester is defeated for re-election (assuming he runs)
Safe R - Joe Manchin is defeated for re-election handily (again, assuming he runs)

Out of all the above, I'd give Brown the highest chance at re-election, but if Biden loses Ohio again by ~8 points, it's hard to see Brown holding on.

For DEM leaning seats, I think Baldwin and Stabenow will be saved by Biden being at the top and winning re-election in WI and MI. I can see Baldwin winning 52-47 and Stabenow 53-46, vice-versa, or something similar. It's plausible both can lose, but only if Biden fails to win either state or keeps his victories very close.

Texas is a total tossup and depends on many factors. It's still a rosy red state, but one which is becoming more Dem-friendly by the minute. It depends on the candidates and demographic changes. Beto was almost able to take Cruz down in 2018, so we'll have to see what happens with Biden (or another Dem) and a Republican at the top of the ticket. My gut says the GOP candidate wins something like 50-48. Maybe the senate Dem candidate outperforms the presidential candidate by enough to narrowly carry the state against Cruz, something like 49.5-49.1.