The “Who is running in 2020?” tea leaves thread, Part 2

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Former DNC chair candidate, and South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg announced he was engaged today, further becoming one of the biggest names in the LGBT community as 2020 approaches.

Indiana, LGBT, appeals to the white working class - could be a great candidate for the Democrats.

.... No???

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Former DNC chair candidate, and South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg announced he was engaged today, further becoming one of the biggest names in the LGBT community as 2020 approaches.

Indiana, LGBT, appeals to the white working class - could be a great candidate for the Democrats.

In what world is he one of the biggest names in the LGBT community?

He’s all we talk about on Grindr.

"Hung masc top seeks fem bottom who admires Pete Buttigieg just as much as I do"

"Drug/Disease-free and donates to Pete Buttigieg. You be, too."

"No fem"

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This thread is getting sort of of odd.

Eh, if gay guys fantasizing about flawless beautiful  Pete Buttigieg (<3<3) is odd, I don't want to be normal.

Ummm I'm on grindr for networking, not Pete Butigeg (sp?)

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I am not sure if Harris will really run she may think she's too green to go for it. Or may bow out to Booker/Warren, I have her at 50/50 on running, Warren 80/20, Booker/Gillibrand 99%.

Based on??? Feelings??

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This story is more definitively stating that Kander will run for mayor:

http://www.kmbc.com/article/kander-to-run-for-kcmo-mayor/21752706

Though I guess there'll inevitably remain some doubt until he formally announces it himself.

Dammit there goes my top choice for 2020

A state secretary and failed candidate was your top choice?

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Do y'all think Kamala is the first or amongst the first to announce?

I feel like she'd be the earlier ones to announce in order to get the most immediate attention. Once the 2018 elections happen and new politicians are inaugurated, I could see candidates start to announce as early as March or April. Maybe some lower tier candidates announce in December.

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Do y'all think Kamala is the first or amongst the first to announce?

I think the unemployed candidates, like O'Malley, Castro, and McAuliffe, will go first.  Currently, they've got nothing much going on in their lives besides boosting Democratic candidates for the midterms.  Once the midterms are over, they might as well run for president for real.  Harris has a day job, so she might continue to pretend she's undecided on a presidential run for another couple of months after the midterms before formally declaring.

Makes and ajsjsjjs unemployed.

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New poll of 2020 Democratic Primaries came out

Hillary at 2nd place.  If Biden doesn't run and Hillary is consistently up there in the polls, I wouldn't be surprised if she ran again.

She won't be lmao y'all's punditry is stupider than Cillizza's.

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Checks other. Written by Chris Cillizza and Harry Enten. It being trash is fully unsurprising.

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https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/20/politics/2020-democrats-chat/index.html “Part 2” of their definitive ranking. They go over what they missed, and Chris makes a good case that Bullock is a hidden liberal. He was the first governor to order net neutrality be protected, banned “dark money” in MT elections post-Citizens United, passed an equal pay bill, refused to send the MT National Guard to the border, and fought as a private citizen for a minimum wage ballot measure.

They compared Bernie Sanders to Rick Santorum.
These people have absolutely no clue about politics.

... I mean, you're forgetting to include the actual content of the comparison. Let's walk through it, yeah?

Harry says that, from reviewing the feedback of the article, he "thinks people think, 'Oh, Bernie was No. 2 last time and he's very popular,' so therefore he should be high up." Given that he's probably read more feedback than you, I'd wager that he probably has a better grasp on the gist of it too. In short, he thinks that people are reverting to previous results and popularity as a mental heuristic.

Then he says that performing well in the past is no indicator of the future. THIS is where he uses the example of Santorum. He performed well in 2012. He didn't perform well in 2016. These are also facts.

You're right in that there's more to the story than just finishing second. But that's literally his point. He thinks things are different than they were in 2016, so that heuristic people reverted to is useless. He then tells us what specifically is different this time around for Bernie. If you want to say that THAT is bunk, than go ahead. But don't discredit yourself by throwing out a strawman like "he used a comparison so this is wrong".

The comparison is disingenuous and these analysts are a joke. Bringing up Rick Santorum whatsoever is nonsensical and only serves to demonstrate how little these talking heads understand about the present state of affairs within the Democratic Party and in what direction the tides are shifting. Santorum did indeed arrive in second-place in his primary run and therefore certainly shares that lone fact with Bernie Sanders - however this is the end of their shared likeness.

Santorum was no leader. He ended up in second only after every other possible conservative alternative to the uninspiring, milquetoast Mitt Romney had been discredited or otherwise worn out. He garnered no significant base in 2016 precisely because he never possessed a serious base of his own to begin with, aside from wealthy conservative doners. On the other hand, Sanders performed extraordinarily well not due to his status as the Clinton alternative, but rather because he lent his voice to a young, progressive generation. Rather than depending on massive sums of donations to push the campaign forward, he allowed a movement to propel his candidacy forward. This is how a political base functions, and this is the type of base that does not disappear after four years.

Because Hillary was only "pushed on" by massive sums of donations and not a diverse array of Democratic voters. It's like y'all are not in reality.

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Smart move to try to get name out there. Focusing on money in politics and jobs might pay off when the rest of the candidates start overdoing it on race and gender identity.

They do focus on jobs, it's just that people like you can't stand to hear that we live amongst racism and bigotry and any candidate who mentions it is accused of "overdoing it" and peddling identity politics.

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All those books have mediocre titles but it seems to be required that they have subpar titles.

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All those books have mediocre titles but it seems to be required that they have subpar titles.

Definitely nothing as pithy Dreams From My Father or The Audacity of Hope, although Harris tries.

Some of them are amusingly bad: Landrieu's could be a white supremacist memoir, Castro's sounds like the title of a fan-fiction Hangover sequel.

Sasse's is just one word away from being something great - Them: Why We Hate Each Other--and How to Heal Prevail.

I'm just waiting for a sitting politician to buck the trend and write total fiction. How about writing kafkaesque horror? Scifi? Murder mytseries? Nobody wants to read ghost written memoirs.

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I predict the Democratic Nominee in 2020 will be a Governor. Too risky for Democrats to nominate the likes of Harris, Warren or Gillibrand against Trump because Donald can then do his usual smear Campaign against Women.

This meme. Lmao. If the Democrats refuse to nominate a woman because they want to appeal to sexist WWC and repel Trump misogyny, they'll lose.

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Warren drops a big hint that her "denials" of presidential interest are fake:

https://apnews.com/7d75daaaba514b5693b77d8a459f37fe/Warren:-Criminal-justice-system-'racist'...'front-to-back

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I’m shocked.

So what if both her and Bernie run? People seem convinced that neither run simultaneously but I wouldn't be surprised if both did.

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Maggie Hassan is going to Iowa

https://twitter.com/jamespindell/status/1026486777924739072?s=21

If Maggie Hassan runs, can we cancel the New Hampshire primary?

lmao, Bernie supporters would want her to since she'd prevent him from winning NH.

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The Joe Biden Foundation has started a new LGBT youth initiative to promote family acceptance.

http://time.com/5361952/joe-biden-lgbtq-family-acceptance-as-you-are/

Why is LGBTQ stuff always pushed on children?

There is a reason why.

Why are parents always kicking out LGBTQ underage children to live on the streets and expose them to drugs and violent crime because they can't accept that their kids aren't straight?

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The more people running just increases the chance of a brokered convention, the DNC will need to come down hard with debate rules. High polling threshold like 10-15% would really discourage a lot of these people.

Not necessarily. I think the first candidates will start dropping out by October 2019. After Iowa, maybe a half a dozen will be left; and past Super Tuesday, it's down to two or three.

Yeah, it's ridiculous to think that like 20 candidates will still be remaining around the convention. After Iowa, I expect all but Warren, Harris, Sanders, Biden, Booker, and maybe Gillibrand to drop out. After Super Tuesday, I think it narrows down to Harris and Sanders.

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A.) I think it'll be a two person race once Super Tuesday ends

B.) I think it'll come down to these people: Harris, Sanders, Biden, Warren, Booker, possibly Sherrod Brown if he wants to run and maybe Gillibrand. And some of those people, namely Sanders, Biden, and Warren, may not even run.

C.) I don't THINK it'll be down to these people: Bullock, Klobuchar, Garcetti, Ryan, Cuomo, Merkley, Patrick, Moulton, or O'Malley.

D.) It might end up being someone from C.) if things just happen to go along in their favor.

E.) I support Kamala Harris so I want it to be her. I think a Harris/Sanders ticket would be exciting, and I think a Harris/Brown ticket would be highly powerful. I used to like a Harris/Bullock ticket but his whole private prison thing, even though people might forget about it, is a bit icky.

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Crazy Cuomo inserts foot in mouth:

https://www.twitter.com/Joel_Searby/status/1029798017082294272

Cuomo finally says something that's true.

I mean, there may be some truth to it, but the way he said it is pretty awful.

Eh. Slavery. Violent colonization. Segregation. Annihilation of Native Americans. Genocide. Ethnic Cleansing. Imperialism. Stealing land from Mexico because of an expansionist war. America isn't jack. The only reason I'm politically active is because I genuinely like our diversity and the vision to have better education, better healthcare, better civil institutions, better justice system, fairer economy etc. But patriotism? Yeah, nah, this country's history is seriously evil.

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Who does everyone think Bullock would choose as his VP if he won the nomination?

Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin

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Castro's decision timeline:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/2018/08/17/iowa-state-fair-2018-soapbox-schedule-politics-dates-tickets-fairgrounds-julian-castro-president/928383002/

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Interesting that this seems to imply that Announcement Season could start as early as mid December. Which in my admittedly  short political memory has not happened.

Though it does leave him wiggle room to *decide * in December and announce in mid January.
 

John Edwards announced in December of 2006 I believe.

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Biden delivered a speech at a rally for Mikie Sherrill at Montclair State University

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Biden delivered a speech at a rally for Mikie Sherrill at Montclair State University

That's where I went to college. My sister goes there now, and she didn't tell me about this!? Hell, she was there today!

Well, it was on September 5, I forgot to clarify.

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Michael Bloomberg set to run for Democrats against Trump for presidency in 2020

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/world/bloomberg-set-to-run-against-trump-in-2020-qvbfcrswg

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He'd lose lmao. Like. Badly.