Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Eraserhead]

I personally suspect the sample dropping off tomorrow is a pro-Obama sample, but with the Dow doing as it is today, it may be replaced by a similar one.

Yikes, just Google Finance-d the Dow.

I guess we know what the first debate question will refer to...

[Eraserhead]

WTF? Are we gonna have a race again or is this a dead cat bounce?

[Eraserhead]

I'll take it that Obama is up by 4 nationally.

Where are you getting 4 from?

[Eraserhead]

Drudge has the headline "SHOCK POLL: OBAMA 49 McCAIN 47"

Oh Drudge... lol.

[Eraserhead]

Drudge has the headline "SHOCK POLL: OBAMA 49 McCAIN 47"

Oh Drudge... lol.

He's right, so far as he goes.  LOL.

McCain moving up a point from yesterday is a ''shock poll''?

[Eraserhead]

Drudge has the headline "SHOCK POLL: OBAMA 49 McCAIN 47"

Oh Drudge... lol.

He's right, so far as he goes.  LOL.

McCain moving up a point from yesterday is a ''shock poll''?

The likely voter one is.  I think the real story is the closing across polls.

Movement of a point in Gallup or Rasmussen is not shocking. Now if McCain actually took the lead back in either of these polls, that would be pretty surprising.

[Eraserhead]

Well I'm not sold on an Obama victory just yet. McCain seems to have done better in the debate lady night, especially if ChrisNJ admits it. The state polls still don't matchup, but I know they always lag behind the national ones.

ChrisfromNJ didn't even watch the debate.

[Eraserhead]

Drudge has the headline "SHOCK POLL: OBAMA 49 McCAIN 47"

Oh Drudge... lol.

He's right, so far as he goes.  LOL.

McCain moving up a point from yesterday is a ''shock poll''?

The likely voter one is.  I think the real story is the closing across polls.

Movement of a point in Gallup or Rasmussen is not shocking. Now if McCain actually took the lead back in either of these polls, that would be pretty surprising.

An 11 point to 2 point difference in a week is "shocking" unless you are one of us and follow the polls closely.

Well, it didn't go from 11 to 2. Those are different polls. People who can't understand that should be called out for being dumbs.

[Eraserhead]

Nate Silver's attack today on Drudge's poll placement is amusing...

http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/10/16/today-s-polls-just-say-no-to-drudge.aspx

Good stuff.

[Eraserhead]

Did Gallup release numbers from the other models today?

[Eraserhead]

This is starting to get too close for comfort again, at least in the national tracking polls. It's nice to know that a lot of people have voted already at least though.

[Eraserhead]

Damn, my boy must have had a hell of a day here. Great to see.

[Eraserhead]

Problem is once he's elected and he destroys the economy and allows Russia to run over Eastern Europe (it would be the perfect time to do it), people will be still praising him.

What is with Republicans this year... was there some weird space-time continum issue that sent them back to 1980.

Back to the 80s? What are you talking about?

There was no Super Nintendo is the 80s, fella.

[Eraserhead]

Hells yeah!

[Eraserhead]

Awesome.

With numbers like this, he almost has to take a fall tomorrow though.

[Eraserhead]

I called it.

[Eraserhead]

lame

[Eraserhead]

lame

To beat out Hawk, this is an article from Gallup that I find most fascinating.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/111331/No-Increase-Proportion-First-Time-Voters.aspx

(conducted October 17-19 2008 among 2700 RV)

J. J.'s Second Rule of Elections?

Nobody cares dude

[Eraserhead]

Gallup
RV’s
Obama 50%
McCain 42%(-1)

LV’s Expanded
Obama 51%(nc)
McCain 44%(-1)

LV’s Trad
Obama 50%(nc)
McCain 45%(-1)

Ye Olde Stable Pattern Returneth!

Yeah, it seems like we are just seeing a bunch of meaningless bouncing around these days. Unless some megaevent occurs, the race is (probably) over.

[Eraserhead]

nice

[Eraserhead]

Damn, must have been some insanely pro-McCain sample.

I wonder when the traditional model numbers become the Drudge headline...

[Eraserhead]

Pretty substantial movement today.

Bradley Effect?

The definition of that is something that is not picked up in polls no?

I'm guessing he was joking.

[Eraserhead]

Well here is the McCain spin of the day, fed to Rich Lowry, who is glad Christopher Buckley resigned from NR:

"The McCain campaign says their internal polling still shows tightening, and their track shows them down three in the swing states. Fwiw..."

But what do they actually consider to be the "swing states" these days?

[Eraserhead]

Gallup better give me some good news today or I'm-a-gonna have to choke a bitch.

[Eraserhead]

I'm resigned to the inevitability of Gallup being way too good for McCain later today. He will be President-elect this time next week, on that I'm absolutely 100% certain

Dave

Knock it off.