Gallup Tracking Poll Thread [Obama vs McCain]

[Eraserhead]

Monday, September 22, 2008
Obama - 48% (-1)
McCain - 44% (-1)

I can live with that.

[Eraserhead]

Things should be tied by Friday.

This is based on....

[Eraserhead]

Uggh. Why can't Gallup and Rasmussen ever agree?

[Eraserhead]

Gallup and Rasmussen agree... and all is right with the world again.

[Eraserhead]

I'm not sure that we should be expecting major movement towards Obama in all of the swing states just yet. I bet he is really just absolutely smashing McCain in New York, California, Maryland, etc. now.

[Eraserhead]

The numbers, at this point, are crisis driven; the crisis ends, the Obama lead ends.

Talk about wishful thinking...

[Eraserhead]

I'm amazed by the amount of Republicans on here who seem to have completely given up. It's a little early for that, i'd say. It's not even October yet.

[Eraserhead]

A day of very little movement in the tracking polls. Fine by me, considering where the race stands.

[Eraserhead]

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See that little ignore button up there next to my name? Why don't you press it?

This is ghostmonkey's first decent post ever. Incidentally it's also the last I'll ever read.

Yeah, I've never used it before but I guess there is a first time for everything.

[Eraserhead]

Good news for McCain. He isn't completely dead yet.

[Eraserhead]

I'm a twenty-something trapped in an old mans body.

Is that why you play GTA?

[Eraserhead]

http://Thursday, October 2nd.

Obama: 48 (NC)
McCain 43 (-1)

That's more like it.

[Eraserhead]

People are expecting a Palin debate bounce? lolz

[Eraserhead]

People are expecting a Palin debate bounce? lolz

Don't be mean to people losing their last hope, man.

sorry

[Eraserhead]

It might be noise or the beginnings of a trend.  We'll see.

I have never once heard you say an Obama gain of a point (or an Obama gain of ~0.07 for that matter) may be the beginning of a trend.

I think I've posted a number of times to ignore McCain increases mid-week, because he's tended to go up mid-week.  I'm interested in things that go against patter, like a smaller Obama lead on weekends.  And I'm more concerned if McCain drops in the Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday Gallup polls.

In short, if nothing in the race changed, I'd expect Obama to be either holding or increasing on this poll today.  That didn't happen.  That might be noise, or it might be something else.

lol. J.J.

[Eraserhead]

So much for JJ's "trend"...

[Eraserhead]

is it time to talk about the 'Biden Bump' it appears that ever tracking poll has moved towards Obama 1 point since the debate day.

 

Probably. Biden was a class act in that debate.

[Eraserhead]

Finally over 50

[Eraserhead]

Awesome. I just wish Rasmussen was showing similar numbers.

[Eraserhead]

Or they both do and will soon be regressing to the mean.

This is probably more likely.

[Eraserhead]

Or they both do and will soon be regressing to the mean.

Actually, the odds are 1 in 400 that this will happen.

Based on what?

J.J.'s 267th rule of elections.

[Eraserhead]

The race is probably Obama +4. This eleven point "lead" is absolutely unrealistic.

I'd say 5-7.

[Eraserhead]

So if we forget about DailyKos and forget about Battleground, the remaining 4 polls are remarkably close now. Rasmussen and Zogby has Obama at +6, Gallup at +7 and DiegeoHotline at +8.

That's "remarkably close"?

[Eraserhead]

Obama 51 (+1)
McCain 41 (-2)

A thing of beauty.

[Eraserhead]

October 15, 2008

RV
Obama 50 (-1)
McCain 43 (+1)

LV (new voter formula)
Obama 52 (-1)
McCain 44 (+1)

LV (traditional)
Obama 49 (-2)
McCain 46 (+1)

Boo!