Iowa GOP Straw Poll - 11 August 2007

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Romney, thus putting a used car salesman on the road to winning the GOP nomination.

He will win but nobody cares about this thing anymore. I'm rooting for Paul or Cox to take it though.

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Here's a chart made by a survey of 30 Iowa Republicans. A 1st-place prediction is worth 5 points, a 2nd worth 4 points, etc.:


From the looks of this, Romney has the most to lose, and Paul has the most to gain. This would also appear to be good news for Tancredo's anti-immigration campaign.

Paul is behind Cox? wtf?

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Here is my shot in the dark prediction:

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Paul
4. Tancredo
5. Brownback
6. T. Thompson
7. Hunter
8. Cox
9. F. Thompson
10. Giuliani
11. Keyes
12. McCain
13. Gilmore

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I hope McCain wins for some reason. That would be funny.

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As everyone has said Romney wins, what's at stake is how much does he win by? If that gap isn't very big he could be in some trouble.

I worked this out in Excel, and, after it gave me some crazy predidction of Romney winning 70% of the Straw Poll Vote, it eventually settled on a 6-7% winning margin of Romney.

Here is my shot in the dark prediction:

1. Romney
2. Huckabee
3. Paul
4. Tancredo
5. Brownback
6. T. Thompson
7. Hunter
8. Cox
9. F. Thompson
10. Giuliani
11. Keyes
12. McCain
13. Gilmore

I know Keyes has said that he will be running a draft campaign in the Iowa Straw Poll, but do you really think he will beat McCain? Also, is Gilmore still on the Straw Poll ballot?

Honestly I'm not sure about either of those points you raised. That's why it's a total shot in the dark prediction.

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Oh, I won't know the results until 5. I'll be waiting for the entire day in anticipation.

Why? Hoping really hard for a Paul upset?

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I really hope Paul comes in second but I don't see it happening right now.

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Everyone that cares about the Republican party - Hope for a huge upset tomorrow (Romney losing).

Would you be happy even if it was Paul who beat him?

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Everyone that cares about the Republican party - Hope for a huge upset tomorrow (Romney losing).

Would you be happy even if it was Paul who beat him?

A write in effort for a pile of horse feces could beat him for all I care.

Paul will never be a major contender for the nomination so he's not a threat. Romney is. He must be stopped.

Still if it came down to Paul and Romney for some reason, you know you would force yourself to vote for Romney.

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Updating my prediction based on some more information:

Romney: 46%
Huckabee: 15%
Tancredo: 12%
T. Thompson: 10%
Brownback: 7%
Paul: 6%
Hunter: 2%
Cox: 2%

Just curious... what information?

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One of the Ron Paul organizers was on saying that they had a lot of support from out of state. Meaning people were driving in and volunteering but not many from in the state. They still think they'll be in the top 5 though.

Well, those organizers could try to convert people who got their ticket and transportation from the Romney camp. Also, let's not forget how much available money Paul has to spend so he could buy tickets for people.

Ron Paul spending money on people? I think not!

Also worth noting is that I hear Paul's wife has had to go to the hospital. I'm not sure if that is going to have an impact or not.

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They are playing some rockin' tunes tonight!

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haha they showeed a Fox News sign in that little Republican montage.

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Haha the Paul people are marching.

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Wow Paul is an extreme conservative on abortion. This guy got the Libertarian nomination? Uggh.

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The people in the stands clearly despise Paul.

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Good night for Huckabee (I called that one right). Tommy Thompson will leave the race after this and my god Duncan Hunter is a joke. I really hope Hunter has the sense to leave the race but that may not be the case.

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I think its time for the wise words of George Stephanopoulos concerning Ron Paul

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HTCnt1TnFHs&mode=related&search=

Stephanopoulos is a jerk. That was very unprofessional.

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Duncan Hunter has said on CNN that the straw poll was just the start of his campaign in Iowa and that he'll do really well there. So he's staying in, the state where he'll do the best IMO is South Carolina but that will be only a few percentage points.

Who is this guy kidding? Give it up.

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Does anyone know how many votes Keyes got?

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Was Keyes actually on the ballot?  I thought he just had a bunch of supporters there to attract publicity.  Not even sure if those supporters were Iowans (and thus, whether they were eligible to vote in the straw poll anyway).

Oh I thought he was on the ballot but I'm probably wrong about that.