NY Primaries Prediction Thread '13

[Eraserhead]

Okay, I wanted to get these out last night but better late than never I guess:

NYC Mayor (R)

Lhota 56%
Catsimatidis 36%
McDonald 8%

Lhota wins all five boroughs (with Catsimatidis coming in second in all of them).

NYC Mayor (D)

de Blasio 40%
Thompson 28%
Quinn 17%
Weiner 6%
Liu 5%
Salgado 2%
Albanese 1%
Credico 1%
Berkowitz 0%

de Blasio (barely) avoids a runoff.

By borough:

The Bronx: de Blasio (Thompson in second)
Brooklyn: de Blasio (Thompson in second)
Manhattan: de Blasio (Quinn in second)
Queens: de Blasio (Thompson in second)
Staten Island: de Blasio (Quinn in second)

NYC Comptroller

Spitzer 50.2%
Stringer 49.8%

I think strong support (and decent turnout) from blacks and hispanics save Spitzer at the end of the day. It should be very close though (not really buying that last Quinnipiac poll).

By borough:

The Bronx: Spitzer
Brooklyn: Spitzer
Manhattan: Stringer
Queens: Stringer (closest borough)
Staten Island: Stringer

NYC Public Advocate

James: 36%
Squadron: 27%
Saujani: 19%
Guerriero: 18%

By borough:

The Bronx: James (Guerriero in second)
Brooklyn: James (Squadron in second)
Manhattan: Squadron (Saujani in second)
Queens: Squadron (James in second)
Staten Island: Squadron (Guerriero in second)

Okay, this one is admittedly a shot in the dark. None of the candidates are extremely well known and I think the polling that was done is basically useless.

Don't know enough about the other races listed by the OP to try and predict them.

[Eraserhead]

NYC Public Advocate

James: 36%
Squadron: 27%
Saujani: 19%
Guerriero: 18%

By borough:

The Bronx: James (Guerriero in second)
Brooklyn: James (Squadron in second)
Manhattan: Squadron (Saujani in second)
Queens: Squadron (James in second)
Staten Island: Squadron (Guerriero in second)

Okay, this one is admittedly a shot in the dark. None of the candidates are extremely well known and I think the polling that was done is basically useless.

Don't know enough about the other races listed by the OP to try and predict them.

Just curious. Is this office also subject to the 40% runoff rule, or is that just the Mayoralty?

Yep, this office is also subject to the 40% runoff rule.

[Eraserhead]

Eh, I guess I forgot about Sidque Wait in the Public Advocate race. I'm not gonna bother changing my whole prediction though. I can't really imagine him getting more than 1 or 2%.