Handicapping Kansas

[Eraserhead]

It'll probably look kind of like the '08 race. Santorum is Huckabee, Romney is McCain, Paul is (a somewhat stronger) Paul. Gingrich might have been a slight problem for Santorum but he decided to completely abandon the state.

Final Prediction:

Santorum 51%
Romney 25%
Paul 18%
Gingrich 6%

[Eraserhead]

Santorum to break 50%.

Maybe not.  In a word:  Gingrich.

Gingrich is not competing there at all.

[Eraserhead]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

How is it you think Paul is only going to 4%?  He got 11% in 2008 and he's improved on his 2008 % in every other state before this.

[Eraserhead]

52% Rick
35% Mittens
09% Paul
04% Newt

I think if you reverse Paul and Newt, you might be right.

How is it you think Paul is only going to 4%?  He got 11% in 2008 and he's improved on his 2008 % in every other state before this.

Yes, it would be better if one could have percentages that add up to 110% rather than 100% I admit. Something had to give, and I went with the two front runners dominating. Anyway, I would be amazed if Mittens fell below 30%, and I doubt it will be that low. But who knows. I am flying on instinct.

That was directed more toward JJ than you. 9% for Paul is definitely a bit more realistic.

[Eraserhead]

Santorum wins... ugh!

Santorum: 53%
Romney: 17%
Gingrich: 15%
Paul: 13%


Per. CNN

Those aren't the final numbers. The vote is still coming in.