Texas Megathread Mk. II : Big Dem State Legislature gains

[Former Kentuckian]

Lupe Valdez and Andrew White both competed for the AFL-CIO endorsement and Valdez was chosen. Aside from her appeal with Latinos and those in Dallas County, this could also give her some leverage in the primary:

Lupe Valdez, Andrew White woo union members at AFL-CIO: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/01/20/texas-democrats-lupe-valdez-andrew-white-woo-union-members-back-bids-governor

AFL-CIO endorses Valdez: chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/AFL-CIO-political-arm-endorses-Lupe-Valdez-12515105.php

[Former Kentuckian]

Some dirt on Andrew White has, inevitably, surfaced. He donated $2,500 to the Kentucky Republican Party several years ago: https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/01/white-suggests-gop-donation-was-business-career/

[Former Kentuckian]

Some dirt on Andrew White has, inevitably, surfaced. He donated $2,500 to the Kentucky Republican Party several years ago

I doubt that's going to have any significant impact on his chances - it was thirteen years ago.

I still think that Valdez is the strongest candidate in the primary and was going to beat White anyway.

Regardless, taking on Abbott is a fool's errand.

It's a small scandal, but it's something annoying he's going to have to explain from now on, and it's especially annoying for him after just losing the AFL-CIO endorsement.

And, yeah, Abbott is invincible but Texas is slowly becoming more Democratic and the only way to build the party is to run candidates and get people involved. Lupe will be the nominee and I'm glad Texas Democrats and left-leaning independents will have her and Beto to vote for.

[Former Kentuckian]

Lupe Valdez took a bruising over the weekend, losing some ground against Andrew White:

https://www.dmagazine.com/frontburner/2018/02/lupe-valdez-andrew-white-endorsements/

http://politics.blog.mystatesman.com/2018/02/05/knocked-for-a-lupe-morning-news-chronicle-houston-glbt-caucus-snub-valdez-for-andrew-white/

On top of that, Andrew White loaned his campaign $1 million and raised $139,000 in donations in January. Lupe Valdez hasn't reported her January earnings yet, but was reportedly raising between $350 and $500 a day last month: https://www.texastribune.org/2018/02/05/white-raises-11-million-january-including-1-million-loan-himself/

[Former Kentuckian]

Who are the African-American political and activist leaders supporting?

State Rep. Garnet Coleman, who is Black, endorsed Andrew White and said, "We don’t want people to believe that the Democratic Party is against the white males — and we’re not." (https://www.texastribune.org/2017/12/07/andrew-white-son-late-gov-mark-white-announces-gubernatorial-bid/).

The Texas Coalition of Black Democrats seems to be supporting Cedric Davis: http://texascoalitionofblackdemocrats.com/tcbd-black-candidates/

That's about all I could find. So much of the media attention has been on Andrew White's appeal to white voters and Lupe Valdez's appeal with Latino voters.

[Former Kentuckian]

State Rep. Garnet Coleman, who is Black, endorsed Andrew White and said, "We don’t want people to believe that the Democratic Party is against the white males — and we’re not." (https://www.texastribune.org/2017/12/07/andrew-white-son-late-gov-mark-white-announces-gubernatorial-bid/).

What a hot take. LMAO.

Wonder if Rep. Jackson-Lee and Al Green will get involved and endorse someone. That would give a clearer picture of how black Democrats are planning to vote.

So far, they've steered clear of the race, but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if they endorsed White based on his lauded Houston Chronicle endorsement comments about the Houston floods: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/recommendations/article/Andrew-White-is-the-Democratic-Party-s-George-W-12549184.php

They could surprise me, though (if they do decide to endorse), since they've literally been completely silent on the race so far.

[Former Kentuckian]

In more under the radar news there is actually a competitive race for the Libertarian nomination for Governor.

Kathie Glass is the front runner and the nominee in 2010, 2014, and for Supreme Court in 2016. Coming from the more conservative wing of the party most notably with her stance on border control. Has the most appeal to Tea Party voters who for whatever wont vote for Abbot.

Kory Watkins is definitely representing the an/cap wing of the party. His campaign seems focused on legalizing marijuana and eliminating property taxes (and then all others). 

Mark Tippetts is a city councilman from Lago Vista. Tippetts' campaign is largely based around opposing Trump and any border wall. He has Mark Miller (2016 candidate for Railroad Commissioner and endorsed by all the major newspapers) and Mary Ruwart in his corner which can go a long way. If he can he get his name out more and build up a bigger social media presence he may be worth keeping an eye on as a potential nominee.

Finally we come to Patrick Smith, another an/cap. He claims to be running for "Not-Governor" i.e. governing by 100% by the Non-Aggression Principle.

Currently I am in the process of trying to get all four to come out to Huntsville where our county's LP will host a Gubernatorial debate in Maech

You'd think Tippetts would be the frontrunner since he's actually held office

[Former Kentuckian]

Andrew White will be airing his first ad. I'm starting to think he'll win the primary: https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/politics/texas/article/White-to-put-up-first-ad-in-Democratic-primary-12605838.php

Lupe Valdez has the endorsement of Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins (but Dallas Mayor Mike Rawlings isn't endorsing): https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/Dallas-County-judge-backing-Lupe-Valdez-for-12605515.php

[Former Kentuckian]

The Austin Chronicle gave a half-hearted endorsement of Lupe Valdez over Andrew White: https://www.austinchronicle.com/news/2018-02-16/chronicle-endorsements/

[Former Kentuckian]

White is already on the air with an ad. Lupe has just filmed her first ad. Not sure how she's affording to our it, though. She had raised a little over $100,000 by the end of January, while White had about $1.3 million (including the million he loaned his campaign).

[Former Kentuckian]

Dems saw nearly 300% increase in turnout compared to 2014 while Reps saw 84% increase on day 1 of early voting in Tarrant county (Fort Worth/Arlington).

https://twitter.com/TXElects/status/966105527892758533

However, the number for Dems weren't great in Bexar county (San Antonio) as there was a 16% decrease in turnout while Reps saw a 38% increase compared to 2014.

https://twitter.com/TXElects/status/966141778914136065

Why's voting up so high for Dems in Harris and Tarrant Counties, but down in Bexar County? Is it the fault of the local party there, or is it due to lackluster local candidates? Or something different altogether?

[Former Kentuckian]

Dems saw nearly 300% increase in turnout compared to 2014 while Reps saw 84% increase on day 1 of early voting in Tarrant county (Fort Worth/Arlington).

https://twitter.com/TXElects/status/966105527892758533

However, the number for Dems weren't great in Bexar county (San Antonio) as there was a 16% decrease in turnout while Reps saw a 38% increase compared to 2014.

https://twitter.com/TXElects/status/966141778914136065

Why's voting up so high for Dems in Harris and Tarrant Counties, but down in Bexar County? Is it the fault of the local party there, or is it due to lackluster local candidates? Or something different altogether?

Okay, that source is now saying they were wrong and voting is actually up for Democrats in Bexar County over 2014: https://mobile.twitter.com/TXElects/status/966425582648033280

[Former Kentuckian]

Lupe Valdez FINALLY hired a campaign manager (a day before early voting began): Bill Romjue. Romjue is just coming off of working on Doug Jones' Senate campaign as a strategist. She has also hired hired Gabby Adler of Gumbinner & Davies, JMM Strategy Group, Kevin McKeon of Putnam Partners, Michelle Mayorga and Margie Omero of GBA Strategies: https://www.mysanantonio.com/news/local/article/Lupe-Valdez-hires-a-big-name-to-help-Democratic-12624786.php

Valdez also made some waves by sitting out the first debate-style candidate forum. Valdez's campaign said it was because she had already made plans to campaign in southern Texas, but I think it was because she's not good at interviews or debating (she famously flunked all major endorsement interviews from the local newspapers and made a major flub about taxes during a live interview with the Texas Tribune in front of an audience): https://www.chron.com/news/politics/texas/article/Empty-podium-sparks-questions-in-Democrats-debate-12628765.php <- She also made some controversy by announcing she'll be doing some events in California in the days leading up to the election instead of being in Texas.

[Former Kentuckian]

Lupe Valdez is out with her first ad and it's very good, imo: https://youtu.be/3yl-h6lZBMU

[Former Kentuckian]

Lupe Valdez is out with her first ad and it's very good, imo: https://youtu.be/3yl-h6lZBMU

Apparently that's John Leguizamo narrating. I had no clue.

[Former Kentuckian]

In other news, Joaquin Castro is backing Lupe Valdez: https://www.dallasnews.com/news/2018-elections/2018/02/26/us-rep-joaquin-castro-backs-lupe-valdez-texas-governor

[Former Kentuckian]

Lupe publicly cast her ballot yesterday with Fox 4 News on hand: http://www.fox4news.com/home/governor-candidate-lupe-valdez-casts-her-vote

[Former Kentuckian]

Most recent fundraising news for Lupe Valdez and Andrew White:

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Source: https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/politics/article/Democratic-candidate-for-governor-White-raises-12711751.php

[Former Kentuckian]

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Warms my heart, seriously.

[Former Kentuckian]

Do y'all think Lupe Valdez's visit to the California Dem convention in the last stretch of the primary will hurt her? I usually tune out social media chatter but there are a lot of Dems on Twitter and Facebook who seem mad at her for flying out there instead of staying in the state to campaign. Think word of mouth might hurt her on election day?

[Former Kentuckian]

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Yeah, Abbot isn't in any danger of losing. at worst he's still going to win by 10%.

I'd love if the Dem nominee could replicate Hillary's 2016 numbers from the general in Texas. I'm rooting for the Dem to simply get above 40% lol

[Former Kentuckian]

Will NYT be showing results for this?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/us/elections/calendar-primary-results.html
Should show up sometime later tomorrow. 

Politico is covering the results, too: https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/texas/?lo=ap_a1

[Former Kentuckian]

Is Texas fast, slow, or somewhere in the middle when it comes to reporting results?

[Former Kentuckian]

Super annoying to see Lupe Valdez so close to 50% but know that a run-off is inevitable.

[Former Kentuckian]

Super annoying to see Lupe Valdez so close to 50% but know that a run-off is inevitable.

Who wins primary runoff, Valdez or White?

Not sure, but I do know White has money for a run-off and Valdez doesn't. White has about a million in the bank. Valdez has less than $100,000, if I remember correctly.