State Legislature Special Election Mega Thread

[Former Kentuckian]

The next competitive election is the Connecticut seat on the 27th.

KY HD-49 may surprise.

Belcher is almost for sure reclaiming her seat, Likely D.

Trump won 75% of the vote in that seat. It's a long-shot, at best.

Trump won 75% of the vote in that seat while Belcher won 49.58% the same year. She shouldn't be underestimated.

[Former Kentuckian]

About Belcher: not only is she a force of nature, the Dan Johnson scandal still has people shaken and there's a feeling of regret over him winning by a tiny margin in 2016. He was a psycho: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Johnson_(Kentucky_politician)

[Former Kentuckian]

About Belcher: not only is she a force of nature, the Dan Johnson scandal still has people shaken and there's a feeling of regret over him winning by a tiny margin in 2016. He was a psycho: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dan_Johnson_(Kentucky_politician)

I hope the KY Dem party is organizing hard on the ground over there. With his widow running, this should be an exceedingly easy pickup.

Linda has been canvassing with Alison Lundergan Grimes and Andy Beshear, canvassing with unions, and she's also been the only one to show up to candidate forums. Like her husband Dan, Rebecca is doing the bare minimum and mostly relying on passing around pamphlets and social media posts about abortion and guns.

https://www.facebook.com/LindaLHBelcher/

[Former Kentuckian]

Also, keep an eye on KY HD-89. It's an insanely tough district for Democrats, but they have a fantastic, energetic recruit (someone I know personally) in Kelly Smith: https://www.facebook.com/KellySmithKY/ What she gets on February 27 will be a better barometer of the political mood in Kentucky than Belcher's district.

[Former Kentuckian]

Trump is more unpopular in CT, though.

And yeah, Belcher will win.

That particular Kentucky House district was ruthlessly gerrymandered by the Democrat party. So it was supposed to be a tough district. By rallying the people the GOP was able to break the vicious gerrymander and win a majority in the chamber.

You don't know anything about Kentucky, Linda Belcher, or the psycho who won this seat in 2016.

[Former Kentuckian]

Apparently there was controversy and the County Clerk was turning away people who were eligible to vote. Alison Lundergan Grimes had to intervene.

[Former Kentuckian]

3 Special Elections Tomorrow, all of which were previously held by Republicans:

State                District             Trump      Clinton    Romney     Obama
Kentucky             HD-89                79         17         77         21
New Hampshire        Belknap-03           54         41         49         50
Connecticut          HD-120               47         49         46         53

Given the national environment, it would be expected that the Connecticut seat is an easy D pickup, the Kentucky seat is an easy R hold, and the New Hampshire seat is competitive.

The Democratic candidate in the Kentucky election has run an absolutely stellar campaign, but that seat is just impossible for Democrats to win, and Democrats usually don't even contest it. It contains portions of Madison County and Laurel County, and contains all of Jackson County. Jackson County, to borrow a phrase from another poster, is a hive of villainy. It's very rural, very white, and very Trumpian. It'll be a success for Kentucky Dems if Smith breaks 30%, no joke.

[Former Kentuckian]

Polls will close at 6 ET in Kentucky, will close no later than 8 ET in New Hampshire, and will close at 8 ET in Connecticut.

For NH, twitter accounts such as @WMUR collect results. Kentucky/Connecticut - uh, good luck searching, the state isn't being helpful here.

I MIGHT go to the election night party for the Kentucky one. If I do, I'll liveblog the results.

[Former Kentuckian]

Final margin in KY:

GOP holds KY's #HD89, winning it 67%-33%. Trump carried #HD89 by 62%, so that's still a net swing of 28% toward Dems.

(28% is also the average swing toward Dems in all 2018 special election so far combined, per @DKElections.)

LOL @ MT Treasurer saying this would be close.

MT's at 1-1 right now. CT will break the tie. Polls close at the top of the hour.

First time in my adulthood, and possibly ever, that a Democrat has ever received over 30% in that district. Democrats usually don't even contest that seat.