WV-SEN 2018: Haunted Manchin

[Former Kentuckian]

Looks like Manchin and Ojeda are hosting two events together, this makes me happy!

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/an-evening-with-richard-ojeda-tickets-46090640346

https://www.eventbrite.com/e/victory-at-tamarack-with-richard-ojeda-tickets-46090659403?aff=erelpanelorg

Looking at the description of these events, I'm not sure if Ojeda is actually going to be there(given his dislike of Manchin) or if Manchin is just hosting an event on his behalf to perhaps try and make amends with him.

Ojeda's Facebook page is making me think Ojeda will be there by saying things like "Celebrate with us." If he wasn't going, I think they'd say so while trying to sell the tickets on Facebook.

[Former Kentuckian]

I'm very familiar with West Virginia and it's hard for me to imagine many people taking this seriously, much less actually going through with it and writing Paula Jean in. As others in this thread and elsewhere said, a lot of Paula Jean's numbers in the primary were from protest votes and Dixecrats who still haven't switched their registration (a big problem Democratic campaigns in WV and Kentucky have to deal with). While there were some sincere Paula Jean voters, not all were. And just because those sincere voters supported her in the primary doesn't mean they're going to write her in. Especially considering WV's problems at the moment, such as the coup that pushed out the WV Supreme Court. Democrats and those leaning Democrat are acutely aware of how serious things are in the state right now, and though Manchin is a federal politician and has little to do with state issues, he's a part of the puzzle state Democrats are trying to put together in November.

It should also be noted that Paula Jean has, rather unceremoniously, shot whatever future political career she may have had square in the back of the head. She was never going to be a US Senator or anything, but there was some rumbling about maybe her running for a State Delegate seat or something small. No more. The state Democratic Party was never fond of her in the first place, but they tolerated her. They're going to be out for blood now.

[Former Kentuckian]

I’m not sure how much of a spoiler she’ll be with 3 votes.

Let's hope you are right. There is no mountain party nominee, so I could see her grabbing 3-4% of the vote.

I don't think it'll be an issue. The Mountain Party usually gets a few percentage points from protest points because 1) they're conveniently on the ballot and 2) they run familiar personalities in the state like Charlotte Pritt and Bob Henry Baber. The Mountain Party would have to actually go out of their way to educate people about writing in Swearengin, and most voters are lazy or already baked-in (and the Mountain Party is resource-strapped anyway). The majority of voters are going to be in a hurry and already have an idea of which of the two well-known candidates they're supporting. I find it hard to imagine many will take the time to write-in an unknown.

Besides, the Mountain Party issued its slate of candidates in June and have remained mum on Swearengin since she announced her write-in adventure despite being active on their social media.

[Former Kentuckian]

Looks like it wasnt 2018 Swearengin was aiming for....

https://twitter.com/paulajean2018/status/1032463548205740032

Omg dude, you just made my day, thank you so much!!

She tagged the WV Democratic Party in that tweet so methinks she may have had a little talk with them