Hawaii Polls

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I've looked all over and can't find any.  Anybody else want to try and dig some up?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I don't think there have been any done.

Anyway, I would imagine Obama and McCain are well ahead.

Why McCain?  It's either Romney or Paul - it's a relatively low turnout state (Paul) with a lot of Mormons (Romney).  Obama definitely has it, since he went to school there.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I agree that Obama will do well in Hawaii. But it has a very large military population (active and retired). Won't that help Clinton, since she's been very martial the past 2 years?

Aren't most military guys Republicans and hence will vote for McCain in the GOP primary?

Anyway, isn't Hawaii 6% Mormon? That would translate into what, 12% of GOP primary vote? Which in turn would give Romney about 10%. A good base but it doesn't in itself seal the win. I'd expect a lot of Hawaii people to be moderates which would help McCain. I expect Huckabee to suck here though and Paul to over-perform.

Then again, no one cares.

I heard they had a large Mormon population.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

I agree that Obama will do well in Hawaii. But it has a very large military population (active and retired). Won't that help Clinton, since she's been very martial the past 2 years?

Aren't most military guys Republicans and hence will vote for McCain in the GOP primary?

True, I didn't think of that.

Anyway, isn't Hawaii 6% Mormon? That would translate into what, 12% of GOP primary vote? Which in turn would give Romney about 10%. A good base but it doesn't in itself seal the win. I'd expect a lot of Hawaii people to be moderates which would help McCain. I expect Huckabee to suck here though and Paul to over-perform.

Great, another state for the Norman to win  

Hawaii's different ethnic groups have very different voting patterns. I forget exactly what they are but its something like:

Japanese and Native Hawaiian ancestry- Strong Democrats

Filipino ancestry and Mainland (European) Whites- Republicans

I believe it's a tad more complicated than that because the native hawaiians (and possibly some other non-White groups) are heavily pro-incumbent - they will vote for the incumbent regardless of party (hence why Bush did so well there last time, Clinton did very well in 1996, Bush Sr. did about as well as he did nationally in 1992, Carter eeked out a win in 1980, etc). I remember there was some attention given to the fact that Hawaii in 2004 was the only state where whites were the best demographic for Kerry.

But I'm no expert. Related to that, Inks, I have no source for the 6% figure either. Someone on the forum said it was 6% and no one denied it. Someone else said that Nevada showed that the mormon propirtion doubles in the primary. So I'm going by hearsay here, I'm as little a mormon-expert as I am a Hawaii-expert.

Do we have any Hawaiians?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Why McCain?  It's either Romney or Paul - it's a relatively low turnout state (Paul) with a lot of Mormons (Romney).

Paul is not ahead anywhere.  Giuliani and McCain could drop out, and Paul still would not be ahead anywhere.

He got 2nd in Nevada.