2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

BTW: A renewed SPÖVP coalition in Salzburg is basically guaranteed ...

[Tender Branson]

Final result in Carinthia (all postal votes counted):

BZÖ: 44.89% (17 seats)
SPÖ: 28.74% (11 seats)
ÖVP: 16.83% (6 seats)
Greens: 5.15% (2 seats)
FPÖ: 3.76%
KPÖ: 0.53%
Others: 0.10%

Turnout: 81.78% (+3.15%)

Breakdown of postal votes only (6% of all ballots cast):

BZÖ: 35.06%
SPÖ: 31.15%
ÖVP: 22.24%
Greens: 7.73%
FPÖ: 3.23%
KPÖ: 0.55%
Others: 0.04%

[Tender Branson]

Looks like a late swing to the BZÖ. Crazy.

Probably the Haider-effect, or bad opinion polls.

[Tender Branson]

Some new approval ratings for important Austrian politicians, according to the institute OGM for the newspaper Profil, conducted March 9, among 500 voters aged 16+:

President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ): 82% Approve, 12% Disapprove (will decide in Mid-2009 if he runs for a second term next year, with these numbers he's probably easily re-elected)

President of the Parliament Barbara Prammer (SPÖ): 51% Approve, 17% Disapprove (if Fischer retires, she's a likely candidate for the SPÖ and the first female candidate for the SPÖ in a Presidential election)

Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ): 57% Approve, 28% Disapprove (has seen better ratings before, probably suffered because of the election losses of the Carinthia and Salzburg SPÖ recently)

Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Josef Pröll (ÖVP): 67% Approve, 26% Disapprove (has always been popular, a younger liberal and competent face of the ÖVP, probably boosted by the improved result of the Carinthian ÖVP)

Minister of Education Claudia Schmied (SPÖ): 52% Approve, 28% Disapprove (currently in a bitter fight with the teachers, because she wants them to work 2 hours more per week, otherwise teachers will be fired because of the limited budget, teachers are of course pissed, but the Austrian population is on her side, according to polls - similar to Obama's fight with the US Teachers Union)

FPÖ-leader Heinz-Christian Strache: 29% Approve, 60% Disapprove (his next big fight will be the Vienna State and City elections, where he wants to beat long-time mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) and become mayor. Probably not happening though, but he's got a boost because of the good result in last years federal elections)

http://www.ogm.at/pdfs/Bundespolitiker_Maerz09.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal Gallup poll for the newspaper Profil:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 31%
FPÖ: 19%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

[Tender Branson]

What will the likely government in Carinthia be?  Or has it already been determined?  A 19-17 majority seems too narrow for an SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens coalition, so I'd imagine there would be either a two party coalition including the BZÖ (and not including the Greens, probably BZÖ-ÖVP) or a BZÖ minority government.  I'm not sure if there's any history for minority governments (as opposed to single-party majority governments or majority coalition governments) in Austria or its states, however.  There may be a lot.  I just don't know.

According to the newspaper Kleine Zeitung, BZÖ-chair Uwe Scheuch has invited ÖVP and SPÖ to coalition talks and has stated that he wants negotiations to be finished by April 3.

ÖVP-chair Josef Martinz has said that a coalition with the BZÖ is now likely. The SPÖ on the other hand will likely move into opposition.

.....

Meanwhile, run-off elections will be held today to determine several mayors in Salzburg and Carinthia, including Salzburg City and Klagenfurt.

In Salzburg City, mayor Heinz Schaden (SPÖ) will be up against Harry Preuner (ÖVP). Turnout will be low (~50%). Preuner would just be the second ÖVP mayor in the capital since World War 2.

In 3 other Salzburg cities, run-offs will be held as well.

In Klagenfurt, BZÖ-candidate Christian Scheider and SPÖ-candidate Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz are in a bitter fight.

In 36 other Carinthian cities, run-offs will be held as well.

[Tender Branson]

What will the likely government in Carinthia be?  Or has it already been determined?  A 19-17 majority seems too narrow for an SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens coalition, so I'd imagine there would be either a two party coalition including the BZÖ (and not including the Greens, probably BZÖ-ÖVP) or a BZÖ minority government.  I'm not sure if there's any history for minority governments (as opposed to single-party majority governments or majority coalition governments) in Austria or its states, however.  There may be a lot.  I just don't know.

According to the newspaper Kleine Zeitung, BZÖ-chair Uwe Scheuch has invited ÖVP and SPÖ to coalition talks and has stated that he wants negotiations to be finished by April 3.

ÖVP-chair Josef Martinz has said that a coalition with the BZÖ is now likely. The SPÖ on the other hand will likely move into opposition.

.....

Meanwhile, run-off elections will be held today to determine several mayors in Salzburg and Carinthia, including Salzburg City and Klagenfurt.

In Salzburg City, mayor Heinz Schaden (SPÖ) will be up against Harry Preuner (ÖVP). Turnout will be low (~50%). Preuner would just be the second ÖVP mayor in the capital since World War 2.

In 3 other Salzburg cities, run-offs will be held as well.

In Klagenfurt, BZÖ-candidate Christian Scheider and SPÖ-candidate Maria-Luise Mathiaschitz are in a bitter fight.

In 36 other Carinthian cities, run-offs will be held as well.

Update:

Salzburg-City: Mayor Heinz Schaden (SPÖ) wins with 54% of the vote.

Klagenfurt: Christian Scheider (BZÖ) wins with 64% of the vote.

[Tender Branson]

Latest IMAS poll of voting intentions for under-30-year-olds:

[Tender Branson]

Austria must have the most right wing youth in Europe. Pretty sad for what once was the cultural centre of Europe. 43 % voting for the extreme right.

I´ve not seen any polls from other countries, surveying under-30's - but it's probably one of the highest rates. What about Poland ? Maybe they could approach 60% for Center-Right as well ?

Interesting breakdown of the poll: Voters over 50 are most likely to back the Government (SPÖVP) with 38% backing the SPÖ and 34% backing the ÖVP (probably because these 2 parties are responsible for their retirement money ).

The overall results for all age groups: SPÖ 30%, ÖVP 26%, FPÖ 21%

More details later when the IMAS report is posted on their site ...

But what percentage actually vote? (just a guess that this might be a case of general disillusionment and apathy, with a sizeable share heading into angryland instead. Might be wrong).

In the last Parliamentary Elections in October 2008, turnout among under-30s was about the same as for the overall population (~80%). Voting participation and engagement of young Austrians is very high, that's why the voting age was lowered to 16, partly because of the lobbying of youth groups.

Yes, but this is Austria. Remember the country we are talking about here.

Also I mimic what Al said.

I´m also inclined to say that most young voters here are just disillusioned with the SPÖ-ÖVP coalition, which is not proposing much for young voters - rather than being really far-right. People like H.C. Strache (FPÖ) have a much easier time in convincing younger voters, because Strache is actually campaigning in bars and discos, voicing concern about youth problems and providing a younger capaign team than either SPÖ or ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal Market poll for the newspaper Der Standard:

SPÖ: 31%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 2%

http://derstandard.at/?url=/?id=1237228052682

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

The new BZÖ-ÖVP coalition in Carinthia was announced today and will be sworn in on March 31.

[Tender Branson]

Latest EU Parliament poll for Austria by Market/derStandard:

SPÖ: 30%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 15%
Greens: 9%
Martin: 8%
BZÖ: 6%
Others (Libertas, KPÖ, etc.): 3%

Today, the 2 coalition parties SPÖVP have announced their frontrunners for the EU elections:

SPÖ: Hannes Swoboda
ÖVP: Ernst Strasser

Also:

Greens: Ulrike Lunacek
FPÖ: Andreas Mölzer
BZÖ: Ewald Stadler

H.P. Martin will decide in April if he runs again.

[Tender Branson]

New Gallup/Ö24 poll for the EU Parliament Elections:

SPÖ: 30-32%
ÖVP: 29-31%
FPÖ: 15-17%
Greens: 9-11%
Martin: 7-9%
BZÖ: 4-6%

66% of those polled said that they will vote in the June 7 elections, 22% won't.

Under-30-year-olds and Greens are most likely to vote (70% vs. 91%), while only 61% of BZÖ voters said that they are voting.

PS: Turnout in the 2004 EU Parliament Elections was only 42%.

http://www.oe24.at/welt/weltpolitik/66_wollen_zur_EU-Wahl_gehen_0445131.ece

Hopefully, FPÖ+BZÖ voters really stay at home.

This might explain why the Center-Left does really well in European Election polls here, compared with recent national election results.

SPÖ+Greens+Martin = 49%
ÖVP+FPÖ+BZÖ = 51%

Recent National Elections:

Center-Left = 43%
Center-Right = 57%

[Tender Branson]

Latest SORA poll for the Upper Austria state elections in the fall:

ÖVP: 41%
SPÖ: 32%
FPÖ: 13%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 4%

[Tender Branson]

Euro polls are surprisingly weak for the far right. I'm guessing most of the Martin voters are FPO/BZO types despite Martin's own moderation?

Also, is the LIF running? As I recall, they have an MEP who defected from Martin's List.

I think it's more the fact that FPÖ/BZÖ voters are not coming out in numbers like they would in federal elections. They don't like to vote for something they hate. Take my parents for example: They nearly always vote in federal elections, but won't vote in the EU elections. My mum even asked me: "Why should I vote for this circus ? I'd go voting if I could vote for the exit of Austria from the EU."

On the other hand I think Martin benefits from all parties. Remember that Martin got 14% last time and is now polling far below that number. People who want to vote for FPÖ/BZÖ are also voting that way. But some may sure see Martin as a protest vote and don#t want to support the Far-Right either. But there are no reliable polls to support this.

The LIF won't run, nor will MEP Karin Resetarits, Martin's former colleague (now in the Liberal Fraction), except Libertas convinces her to run.

[Tender Branson]

New federal poll by Public Opinion Strategies/Peter Hayek (1004 Austrians 16+, MoE=3.1%):

SPÖ: 32%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

New EU Parliament poll by Public Opinion Strategies/Peter Hayek (1004 Austrians 16+, MoE=3.1%):

ÖVP: 33%
SPÖ: 31%
Martin: 10%
FPÖ: 10%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 4%
Others: 3%

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24/Gallup poll for the EU Parliament Elections:

SPÖ: 31-33%
ÖVP: 30-32%
FPÖ: 15-17%
Greens: 8-10%
Martin: 6-8%
BZÖ: 3-5%
Libertas: 0-2%

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/SPOe_bei_Europawahl_knapp_vor_OeVP_0448376.ece

Meanwhile, Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann (SPÖ) has invited Obama to visit Austria.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Faymann_hat_Obama_eingeladen_0448380.ece

There's also a new poll about the 2010 Presidential Elections, again by Ö24/Gallup:

Austria's President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) currently enjoys a 84% approval rating and would defeat conservative candidate Erwin Pröll (ÖVP), Governor of Lower Austria, by 67-18.

79% of Austrians would like to see Fischer running for a second term. He'll decide later in the summer if he will ...

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Fischer_entscheidet_nach_dem_Sommer_0448359.ece

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/Gallup poll on E-Voting in Austria:

51% favor the introduction of E-Voting
34% are against
15% are undecided

SPÖ/FPÖ/BZÖ are against the introduction, Greens are strongly against.

Only the ÖVP is for it.

I´m also strongly against it.

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal poll by Gallup/Ö24:

SPÖ: 34%
ÖVP: 33%
FPÖ: 18%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 6%

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Proell_und_Schmied_stuerzen_kraeftig_ab_0451027.ece

Latest Upper Austria poll by Market for the fall state elections:

ÖVP: 42% (-1.4 compared with 2003)
SPÖ: 32% (-6.3)
FPÖ: 14% (+5.6)
Greens: 9% (-0.1)
BZÖ: 3% (+3.0)

Hypothetical direct vote for state governor:

Incumbent Gov. Josef Pühringer (ÖVP) - 67%
Erich Haider (SPÖ) - 15% (not related with Jörg Haider)

Governor Pühringer has a 73% job approval rating according to this poll.

http://www.rundschau.co.at/rsooe/home/story.csp?cid=6522593&sid=75&fid=55

[Tender Branson]

The new (old) SPÖVP coalition in Salzburg was finalized and announced today.

Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ) will remain the Governor of my state.

(A few weeks ago it almost looked like the ÖVP might enter a coalition with the FPÖ ...)

http://derstandard.at/?url=/?id=1237229916368

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal poll by OGM for the weekly News:

SPÖ: 31%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 22%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 2%

http://www.news.at/articles/0916/10/239321/news-ogm-umfrage-proell-faymann-kanzler-direkt-wahlfrage

Latest EU parliament poll by OGM for the weekly News:

ÖVP: 32%
SPÖ: 30%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 9%
Martin: 6%
BZÖ: 5%
Others: 1%

http://www.news.at/articles/0916/10/239322/enges-match-1-platz-eu-wahl-oevp-umfrage-spoe-front

[Tender Branson]

New Berndt poll for the Vorarlberg state elections in the fall:

ÖVP: 48% (-7 compared with 2004)
FPÖ: 16% (+3)
SPÖ: 15% (-2)
Greens: 13% (+3)
BZÖ: 3% (+3)
Others: 5% (nc)

[Tender Branson]

There's also a new OGM approval ratings poll for the Vienna "state" elections 2010 out:

Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) has a 67-30 approval rating.

Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ), who wants to become mayor (LOL !) has a 30-64 rating. The FPÖ won't get more than 30% in the elections, it's their absolute maximum. The SPÖ meanwhile will not drop below 40% ...

Johannes Hahn (ÖVP leader) has a 45-29 rating.

Maria Vassilakou (Green leader) has a 25-29 rating.

I´m really looking forward to any actual poll in party voting intentions.

The results of the 2005 Vienna "state" elections:

SPÖ: 49.1%
ÖVP: 18.8%
FPÖ: 14.8%
Greens: 14.6%
KPÖ: 1.5%
BZÖ: 1.2%

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/OGM federal elections poll:

SPÖ: 33%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Grüne: 9%
BZÖ: 6%
Others: 1%

On April 29, the Wahlkabine will be online again with questions for the EU parliamentary elections. It will be in English for the first time ever.

http://www.wahlkabine.at

[Tender Branson]

BREAKING NEWS !

The first poll so far by IMAS for the battle of Vienna next year was released in today's "Krone".

If the Vienna state (city) elections were held today:

SPÖ: 42% (-7 compared with 2005)
FPÖ: 26% (+11)
ÖVP: 18% (-1)
Greens: 13% (-2)
BZÖ: 1% (nc)

Who Vienna voters want as their Mayor:

Incumbent Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ): 45%
Johannes Hahn (ÖVP): 13%
Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ): 10%
Maria Vassilakou (Greens): 5%
Neither/Other/Undecided: 27%

http://www.krone.at/krone/S150/object_id__143285/hxcms/index.html

That's a big blow for Heinz-Christian Strache (FPÖ) who wants to become mayor of Vienna, saying how rotten Vienna is under Mayor Häupl. Strache wants to deport criminal and unemployed foreigners from Vienna and install vigilante groups to patrol the streets of Vienna so they can stop criminal foreigners ...

2010 looks much like a 1996 re-run, allthough you should always add about 1-3% to the FPÖ's standing in the polls and subtract 1-3% from the SPÖ, because the FPÖ usually underpolls before the election and the SPÖ overpolls:

http://www.wien.gv.at/statistik/daten/pdf/grstimmenanteil.pdf

I think it's very unlikely that the Vienna-SPÖ will ever get below 35% and the FPÖ above 30%.