2009 State and European Parliament Elections in Austria

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile the Chamber of Labor elections in the states of Salzburg and Vorarlberg took place during the last 2 weeks. All the votes are counted in Vorarlberg and the ÖVP Union won comfortably. In Salzburg, half the votes are counted and the Social-Democrat FSG has increased their share to about 70%. The FPÖ Union just increased their share by 4%, far worse than I anticipated. These union elections are indicators as to how the state elections will play out this year. I voted for the FSG and also intend to vote for the SPÖ (lean) or Greens in the March 1 state elections.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Carinthia poll by Hayek:

BZÖ: 38%
SPÖ: 36%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%
Others: 2%

Also, Gallup for Ö24:

BZÖ: 41%
SPÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 13%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 5%

Another (SPÖ-internal) by SORA:

SPÖ: 41%
BZÖ: 38%
ÖVP: 10%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 3%
Others: 2%

...

GO, SPÖ !!!

[Tender Branson]

Any nationwide polls?

No new polls this weekend ... (But scroll up and you'll find the latest.)

[Tender Branson]

Any nationwide polls?

A new national poll is out (Market for the newspaper Standard):

SPÖ: 34%
ÖVP: 29%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 10%
BZÖ: 6%

[Tender Branson]

Latest Carinthia poll by Hayek:

BZÖ: 38%
SPÖ: 36%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%
Others: 2%

Also, Gallup for Ö24:

BZÖ: 41%
SPÖ: 35%
ÖVP: 13%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 5%

Another (SPÖ-internal) by SORA:

SPÖ: 41%
BZÖ: 38%
ÖVP: 10%
Greens: 6%
FPÖ: 3%
Others: 2%

...

GO, SPÖ !!!

Is an SPO-OVP anti-BZO coalition conceivable (maybe with the Greens, too, if necessary)?

So far they have not made any coalition preferences, but it`s not unlikely.

Maybe they'll continue the current BZÖ-SPÖ-ÖVP coalition ...

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia poll by Market for News Online:

BZÖ: 39%
SPÖ: 36%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%
Others: 1%

Still hoping for the SPÖ to overtake the BZÖ and the FPÖ to fall below 5% ...

New Salzburg poll by Market for News Online:

SPÖ: 44%
ÖVP: 37%
Greens: 9%
FPÖ: 8%
BZÖ: 2%

A few weeks ago I would have voted for the SPÖ for strategic reasons (the race was closer), but given the current 7-point lead I'll probably vote Green again ...

[Tender Branson]

New (internal) Gallup poll for the ÖVP:

SPÖ: 39-40%
ÖVP: 36-37%
FPÖ: 13-14%
Greens: 7-8%
BZÖ: 2-3%

500 Salzburg State voters aged 16+ surveyed between Feb. 2-4, 2009. MoE = 4%

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal Profil/OGM poll:

SPÖ: 32%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

[Tender Branson]

Latest federal Profil/OGM poll:

SPÖ: 32%
ÖVP: 30%
FPÖ: 21%
Greens: 9%
BZÖ: 7%
Others: 1%

That's pretty damn depressing, for several reasons.

Yes. But just wait for next year, when the Vienna State (City) Elections take place:

H.C. Strache, who will be the mayoral candidate for the FPÖ, recently said in the Pressestunde that in Vienna the FPÖ is polling at more than 30% right now in their internal polls, with the SPÖ at 40% or below. There are no independent polls as of now to prove this, but I think it's not impossible. The day Vienna elects H.C. Strache as mayor would be a very sad day. Thankfully Johannes Hahn of the City-ÖVP has ruled out any form of work with the Strache-FPÖ, not to mention SPÖ and the Greens. But Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) - in office since 1994 - will not be mayor forever, and 2010 seems to be the year when the FPÖ will launch a strong campaign against him ...

[Tender Branson]

2 new federal polls I´ve just found:

Gallup/Ö24

SPÖ: 34%
ÖVP: 31%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 11%
BZÖ: 7%

Fessel-GfK/Kronen Zeitung:

SPÖ: 33-34%
ÖVP: 31-32%
FPÖ: 17%
Greens: 9-10%
BZÖ: 5%

[Tender Branson]

New Profil/OGM poll on 2 social issues in Austria:

Abolish the subject "Religion" in schools and replace it with the subject "Ethics" (currently you can choose between Religion (Catholic, Evangelic & Islam - in some schools - and Ethics, as was the case in my high school):

Support: 30%
Oppose: 62%

Liberalization of the current gun laws (to make it easier to get handguns):

Support: 9%
Oppose: 89%

It seems Austrians are very Anti-Gun and not in line with H.C. Strache (FPÖ) on this issue, who proposed an easing of gun laws recently, so that cab-drivers, tobacconists, jewelers etc. can arm themselves against "foreign" criminals ...

http://www.wienweb.at/content.aspx?menu=4&cid=160549

[Tender Branson]

I support the first one.

And I don't completely oppose the second one....but I'm not too big a fan.

I support the status quo, that you can choose between the subjects. I oppose the second one.

There's also another question that was asked by OGM that I´ve just found:

Do you think Homosexuality is curable ?

85% No
10% Yes
5% Undecided

[Tender Branson]

I support the first one.

And I don't completely oppose the second one....but I'm not too big a fan.

I support the status quo, that you can choose between the subjects. I oppose the second one.

There's also another question that was asked by OGM that I´ve just found:

Do you think Homosexuality is curable ?

85% No
10% Yes
5% Undecided

I'm actually somewhat surprised. I would have believed maybe 70% NO in Austria.

Austria's politicians are trailing society when it comes to recognizing gay unions or marriage.

The Greens are strongly pushing it, while SPÖ and ÖVP seem to have other priorities, and BZÖ and FPÖ against.

Latest polls from 2004 (Gallup) and 2006 (Eurobarometer) show 70% of Austrians in favor of Civil Unions and a majority for Marriage Rights (50%-44%).

Especially, when it comes to adoption of children by gay couples, Austria ranks third among the 27 EU-countries in support, just trailing the Netherlands and Sweden. 45% support it and 49% oppose it.

[Tender Branson]

Latest GMK Salzburg poll:

SPÖ: 39-41%
ÖVP: 36-38%
FPÖ: 13-16%
Greens: 5-7%
BZÖ: 2-4%

[Tender Branson]

New (internal) IGF poll for the SPÖ:

SPÖ: 41%
ÖVP: 36%
FPÖ: 12%
Greens: 8%
BZÖ: 3%

[Tender Branson]

With 1 week to go, the polls are tightening a bit, allthough Gov. Burgstaller (SPÖ) beats out her ÖVP counterpart in every poll by wide margins. The Social-Democrats also receive better grades for campaigning and "being most in touch with the citizens".

But the latest Market poll for the newspaper Standard shows:

SPÖ: 43%
ÖVP: 39%
FPÖ: 9%
Greens: 7%
BZÖ: 2%

I doubt that the FPÖ will only get 9%, because they almost always underpoll. It's more likely that the FPÖ will receive 16%, with the BZÖ about 4%. This will also lead to a lower share for the SPÖ, making the race for #1 more interesting. But lets hope this poll is the final result and Salzburg voters show the middle finger to the rightwingers FPÖ/BZÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, in a Profil-interview Austrian President Heinz Fischer (SPÖ) has declared his support for full marriage rights of homosexual couples, not only civil unions, which is the mainstream opinion among coalition politicians.

According to recent news articles and Interior Minister Maria Fekter (ÖVP), it is now certain that Austrian Parliament will pass a civil union law this autumn that'll be active by Jan. 1, 2010.

Only the Greens have been for full marriage rights so far, while the SPÖ favored civil unions and the ÖVP was split (the more liberal wing incl. Vice Chancellor Josef Pröll for civil unions and the more conservative wing incl. General Secretary Fritz Kaltenegger against).

http://www.news.at/articles/0908/10/234475/es-standesamt-fischer-ehe-homosexuellen

[Tender Branson]

New Carinthia poll by Market for the newspaper Standard:

BZÖ: 39%
SPÖ: 37%
ÖVP: 12%
Greens: 7%
FPÖ: 5%

[Tender Branson]

After watching the TV debates yesterday, here are my official endorsements for Sunday's
elections:

In my home state Salzburg, I'll vote for the Green Party, mainly because of their environmental and social stances (and especially because of Cyriak Schwaighofers good debate yesterday), and against Gov. Gabriele Burgstaller (SPÖ), because - allthough she's done a brilliant job over the last 5 years - she's not ruled out a coalition with the fascist and xenophobic FPÖ.



In Carinthia, I support Reinhart Rohr and the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), because Gov. Dörfler (BZÖ) is a sick joke and turning into some kind of Carinthian George W. Bush:

[Tender Branson]

Burgstaller cooperating with the FPO would just be a moronic political move. I can see the election results in my head...

2009:

SPO: 40
OVP: 38
FPO: 10
Grune: 7

I think that FPÖ+BZÖ will get close to 20% on Sunday, maybe (16+4). Burgstaller not ruling out a coalition with the FPÖ probably has to do with the fact that the SPÖ owes a great share of its vote in 2004 and probably again this Sunday to blue-collar low income workers, who tend to vote for the FPÖ. By saying she's not ruling out a coalition beforehand, she strategically wants to appeal to these voters again. If she ruled out right away, those voters would have gone to the FPÖ in a second. Nonetheless, I think that the current SPÖ-ÖVP coalition will continue.

There's also a new poll out by IGF for the newspaper "Salzburger Fenster":

SPÖ: 41
ÖVP: 35
FPÖ: 14
Greens: 8
BZÖ: 2

BTW: The State and town ÖVP was targeting me today by sending me 2 letters including a ÖVP-pencil and a ÖVP-cereal bar ...

I've also received a letter by Gov. Burgstaller, but nothing from the Greens, FPÖ or BZÖ so far ...

[Tender Branson]

A new Gallup/Ö24 poll shows the SPÖ closing in on the BZÖ in the final days before the vote:

BZÖ: 37-41
SPÖ: 36-40
ÖVP: 11-13
Greens: 5-7
FPÖ: 5-7

2 things not in favor of the SPÖ winning on Sunday:

20% have not yet made up their mind and most of them are former SPÖ voters who went for Haider's FPÖ in 2004. If they break heavily for the BZÖ, the BZÖ wins.

The BZÖ-led government has sent out a 40-page campaign info to ALL households in Carinthia recently.

[Tender Branson]

BZO is collapsing because of the death of Haider?

The BZÖ is hardly collapsing, at least not in Carinthia. Remember that the unified FPÖ got 42% of the vote in the 2004 state elections. Together with the FPÖ they would get about 45% on Sunday ...

Nobody knows if Haider would have reached 50%, but probably not ...

[Tender Branson]

Latest Gallup/Ö24 poll for Salzburg:

SPÖ: 38-40%
ÖVP: 36-38%
FPÖ: 12-14%
Greens: 6-8%
BZÖ: 3-5%

Gallup always seems to expect a tighter race in Salzburg than other polls show (5-7% SPÖ advantage). Allthough, if FPÖ and BZÖ increase their combined vote to about 15-20%, I'd trust Gallup more. If the 3 Center-Right parties are below 55%, I think the SPÖ will win, if they are getting between 55% and 60%, the ÖVP could overtake the SPÖ.

On the other side, a indicator that this will not happen is the fact that Gov. Burgstaller (SPÖ) leads Haslauer (ÖVP) by 49-26 in a direct vote for governor.

Also interesting the late BZÖ surge, but maybe not enough for the 5% treshold ...

[Tender Branson]

3 Center-Right parties are below 55%

The FPÖ and BZÖ are centre-right?

The ÖVP is center-right, FPÖ+BZÖ far-right.

...

New European Parliament Elections poll for Austria by Market for the newspaper derStandard:

SPÖ: 35% (+2 since 2004)
ÖVP: 35% (+2)
Greens: 11% (-2)
H.P. Martin: 9% (-5)
FPÖ: 8% (+2)
BZÖ: 2% (+2)

Second poll after Gallup that shows a tied race between SPÖ and ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Interesting official campaign logo of Carinthian FPÖ frontrunner Mario Canori: