Alcon's all-purpose EARLY VOTING & REGISTRATION thread

[Tender Branson]

Black turnout very high in Georgia early voting

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http://www.ajc.com/news/content/metro/stories/2008/10/02/black_early_voting.html

That might somehow explain Obama's 64-35 lead in the latest SUSA poll among GA's early voters.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2fdaa784-f308-4d21-a3d5-0b0471b397a8

[Tender Branson]

COLORADO - Republicans hold advantage in early balloting, but not by the typical margins.

From the Denver Post:

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What it really means:  Beware of stories like this.  Democrats are energized.  Anti-Bush sentiment sparked enthusiasm, and Obama sparks enthusiasm too.  This news isn't disaster for the Colorado GOP; trailing early voting probably would have been.  Then again, they need good news, and this isn't good news.

These are just numbers for requests, right ? Actual early voting is a different matter ...

There are a lot of people that may request a ballot, but then won't vote.

[Tender Branson]

In Franklin County, OH, 9,280 people voted early so far. The party breakdown:

59% Independents
39% Democrats
3% Republicans

Age breakdown:

18-24: 20%
25-34: 23%
35-50: 28%
51-65: 21%
66+: 7%

http://www.dispatch.com/live/export-content/sites/dispatch/images/2008/10/08/voting_graphic.jpg

[Tender Branson]

NC: 1st early voting day sets mark; black turnout strong

Thursday's first day of early voting drew record numbers across North Carolina, election officials said, as more than 100,000 people turned out.

That exceeded the 2004 figure by about 40 percent, said Gary Bartlett, executive director of the State Board of Elections.

“We blew it away,” Bartlett said Friday, encouraging other voters to take advantage of the early voting period before it ends on Nov. 1. “If not, it will be a long day on Election Day.”

Mecklenburg County also set records, with an updated count showing more than 10,000 voting on the first day, and an additional 7,000 on Friday. Michael Dickerson, the county's elections director, suspects Friday's totals might have been higher if not for the rain.

Across the state, Democrats showed the most first-day enthusiasm. Of the nearly 114,000 first-day voters, 64 percent were Democrats, 21 percent Republicans and 15 percent unaffiliateds.

African American turnout was up significantly. Black voters, who make up about 22 percent of registered voters, were 36 percent of Thursday's early voters.

In 2004, blacks made up 18.6 percent of voters.

Experts estimate that Barack Obama needs a black turnout in North Carolina of between 22 percent to 23 percent to carry the state. No Democratic presidential candidate has carried North Carolina since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

http://www.charlotteobserver.com/408/story/261771.html

[Tender Branson]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, about 320.500 people have now voted early, 85.300 of them are African-American (27%).

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us

[Tender Branson]

According to the NC State Board of Elections, about 320.500 people have now voted early, 85.300 of them are African-American (27%).

http://www.sboe.state.nc.us

How much of a good thing is that for Obama?

It only shows that enthusiasm is high among African-Americans, because they vote early in high numbers. But we don't know if their share in early voting matches the share on Election Day. Probably not ...

[Tender Branson]

Does Missouri have early voting? I haven't heard anything about it either way.

"In Missouri, absentee voting began on Sept. 23 and continues until 5 p.m. the day before the Nov. 4 general election.

State law requires that absentee voters expect to be out of town on election day. Exceptions for religion and other reasons are also made."

[Tender Branson]

Interesting maps of early & absentee voting rules and dates:

Today, early voting starts in AK, ND, CO, TX, ID, AR and FL.





http://www.pewcenteronthestates.org/initiatives_detail.aspx?initiativeID=34044

[Tender Branson]

Texas reports 340.000 voters on the first day of early voting yesterday.

And that's only the 15 largest counties ...

Breakdown:

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct20.shtml

[Tender Branson]

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct21.shtml

Texas 15 largest counties - two days in.

Hmm. Almost doubled compared with '04.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

TX: 1.113.000
GA: 967.000
TN: 807.000

[Tender Branson]

TX also hits 2 Mio. early voters:

2,069,331 in the 15 largest counties as of yesterday, to be exact.

http://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2008/oct27.shtml

[Tender Branson]

Fort Bend has almost more votes cast early now than in the whole 2000 General Election.

[Tender Branson]

The North Carolina Board of Elections today announced that it would extend early voting hours on Saturday, the last day people can cast ballots in the state before Nov. 4.

The emergency decision affects “one-stop” registration and voting sites in the state’s 100 counties, which have experienced long lines since opening on Oct. 16. The sites can now stay open four hours later, until 5 p.m., on Saturday.

According to The Associated Press, more than 1.7 million people, just under a third of the state’s registered voters, had cast ballots by Wednesday evening in the surprise swing state.

The North Carolina decision comes as states around the country have experienced heavy early turnout, with Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida extending early voting hours from eight hours a day to 12 on Tuesday.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/30/north-carolina-extends-early-voting/

[Tender Branson]

FLORIDA -- One dead in early voting election sabotage attempt in Indian River County.  More details.  Developing...

Wow. Republicans are pulling all tricks now to rig the election and to keep voters away!

Must have been Romney-inspired:

[Tender Branson]

Nationally, in 2004, the 18-29 percent of vote was 16%.

http://civicyouth.org/PopUps/FactSheets/FS_Youth_Voting_72-04.pdf

NC, the only state that breaks it down, has it at 13.2% in early voting.

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

My guess is that it will be comparable to 2004 and that will not be a Youth Surge.

The black vote, however, appears to be much higher, about 4-5 points.

What % of the NC electorate in 2004, per the state, was 18-29?  I can't find this information.  I would prefer early voters above even that.  General election voters were 14% 18-29 in NC in 2004, but we already know that the NC exit poll was screwy.

Maybe I can help:

According to the July 2004 Census estimates, 1.405.343 people in NC were aged between 18-29. They accounted for 16.5% of the total population, which was 8.538.378 back then.

The 18-29 age group made up 16.2% in the July 2007 estimates.

http://www.census.gov/popest/states/asrh/tables/SC-EST2007-02-37.xls

[Tender Branson]

Miami-Dade County Exit polling by Bendixen & Associates (8,683 voters)

Bottom-line result: Obama 61%, McCain 39%

The demographics of those interviewed: 55% Hispanic, 25% White, 20% Black

Among all Hispanics voting, Obama was favored by 47 percent, McCain 53
Among White voters, Obama 64 percent, McCain 36
Among African-American voters, Obama 98 percent

http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_columnist_mikethomas/2008/10/exit-polling-da.html

http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politics/blog/2008/10/obamas_hispanic_vote_strong_in.html

Note: Gore and Kerry got 53% in Miami-Dade.

...

Blacks are giving Democrats an edge in early voting

A huge increase in early voting has given Democrats a decided advantage over Republicans in Florida -- a major departure from statewide voting trends four years ago, according to a Miami Herald analysis of early and absentee ballots cast so far this year.

Through Thursday, Democrats cast 46 percent of the 3.4 million early and absentee votes in Florida, while Republicans cast 38 percent.

That's a big shift since 2004, when Democrats were outvoted 44 percent to 41 percent by Republicans in early and absentee ballots, according to a study of Florida voting data.

The recent Democratic gains have been most pronounced in early voting, where Democrats have outnumbered Republicans by 432,000 out of nearly two million voters.

Black voters have made the difference, accounting for 16 percent of the early and absentee voters so far -- with 86 percent of them registered Democrats. In 2004, black turnout for early and absentee voting was a bit more than 10 percent of the total.

Black turnout has been especially high in the state's urban areas. In Broward County, blacks accounted for 39 percent of all early voters at the polls through Thursday; in Miami-Dade County, it was 30 percent. In Orange County, 30 percent of all voters were black; in Duval County, it was 36 percent.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics/campaign-2008/story/751034.html

Interesting: If 30% of Miami-Dade's early & absentee voters have been Black so far, why is Bendixen's Exit poll only showing 20% Blacks in the county ? And the exit poll isn't even including GOP-heavy absentee ballots yet ...

In Miami-Dade, about 407.000 have voted so far (273.000 early + 134.000 absentee) and I expect another 130.000 to be added until early and absentee voting ends.

[Tender Branson]

Another "exit poll" from the FL bay-area:

The Tribune surveyed 330 voters outside polling areas on Wednesday and Thursday in Hillsborough, Pinellas and Pasco counties.

In the Tribune survey, Bay area Republicans more often broke ranks to vote for Obama than Democrats did for McCain. Nineteen percent of Republicans interviewed cast ballots for Obama, compared with just 3 percent of Democrats voting for McCain.

Among Independents, 52 percent cast ballots for Obama compared with 14 percent for McCain. Independents accounted for 20 percent of all voters surveyed.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2008/oct/31/312041/early-voters-discuss-their-choice/

[Tender Branson]

Georgia people! With 1,994,990 people voted through today, black percentage is still at 35.08%. 

I heard they might allow early voting today as well?

So far 43% of all registered Blacks have voted, 34% of Whites and 23% of Others.

The important question will be if Blacks also finish ahead on Election Day and if the share is not reduced to less than 31%. Because with 31%, Obama has a slight chance to win the state.