So are you using Zogby for all of these states, or just for the "light green" (Arizona, Arkansas, South Carolina)?
Do not include Zogby in any analysis. In fact, taking a three-poll average is much better than just one poll.
His brain is fatally flawed if he's using Zogby!
Donīt worry, my brain is fine.
As you may know from the '08 polling board, Iīm not a big fan of Zogby Interactive. I know they are/were far off and I only used them to show Obama "leads" in AZ, AR, SC - because no poll has shown him ahead so far this year. That doesn't mean I think Obama is ahead there at all. I merely wanted to point out groups of states and their likelyhood of going to Obama. Based on a national 3-4 point win for Obama, IA, NM, OH and CO are currently most likey to go to Obama. Then, next in line are Nevada and Virginia. Donīt ask me about Montana, North Dakota, Alaska and Indiana. Some of these states could see wild swings compared with previous elections, or maybe all polls we have seen so far, showing them closer than 2000/2004, were faulty.
well, you sure are an optimistic democrat.
how in the world is south carolina and arizona not McCain. South Carolina has voted republican for every presidential election since 1952 with the exception of 1960 and 1976. there is no way that south carolina will go democrat this year or any time soon.
on arizona, this is McCain's homestate. Yes, it is more democrat than South Carolina, but it is McCain's homestate and it went solid for Bush in 2000 and 2004. Arizona has voted for a republican in every election since 1952 with the exception of 1996. It also is not going democrat any time soon.
We only had 2 polls from SC, it could be within single digits on Election Day, but itīs certainly lean McCain. The same accounts for AZ: Obama could get 43-47% ...
Obama is targeting Mississippi as much as he's targeting Georgia...
I was referring to the ads the Obama-campaign was running in 18 states. MS was not among them, but with amazing African-American turnout it could be within 10 points ...
