AZ: Rasmussen: McCain up 9 in his home state

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Arizona President by Rasmussen on 2008-06-25

Summary: D: 40%, R: 49%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


McCain leads by twenty-seven points among men but trails by six among women.

The Arizona Senator is supported by 81% of Republicans and enjoys a twelve point lead among unaffiliated voters. Obama gets the vote from 75% of Democrats.

Overall, McCain is viewed favorably by 60% of Arizona voters, Obama by 47%.

[Tender Branson]

yeah, I did get 49+40=89.

But McCain should be stronger - even in that circumstance. It basically reflects that poll which shows that in spite of all the acrimony in the Dem race - more Dems were satisfied with Obama than Reps with McCain.

It´s interesting that Obama does better than Kerry, despite losing Independents by 13 as well as losing more Democrats to McCain than winning Republicans from McCain. I don´t know the internals of this poll, but I think that Democrats and Republicans must account for about the same percentage to get these results. Lets compare this July 2004 SurveyUSA poll from AZ and SurveyUSA's February survey. In the 2004 poll, the composition was 44R, 31D and 25I - about what the 2004 Exit Poll from AZ showed (44-30-26). The July 2004 poll also showed Bush beating Kerry 53-41, which is about as accurate as it can get. Their February 2008 poll meanwhile suggested a composition of 41R, 37D - with McCain leading Obama by 12 then. The 2004 AZ exit poll showed a 14-point turnout advantage for the Republicans, the 2006 exit poll a 8-9% advantage. Could it be that in the last 2 years Democrats narrowed the gap to lower single digits ? If yes, these Rasmussen results make perfect sense, if not and turnout is like 2004 or 2006, I think they are heavily underestimating McCain.

[Tender Branson]

yeah, I did get 49+40=89.

But McCain should be stronger - even in that circumstance. It basically reflects that poll which shows that in spite of all the acrimony in the Dem race - more Dems were satisfied with Obama than Reps with McCain.

It´s interesting that Obama does better than Kerry, despite losing Independents by 13 as well as losing more Democrats to McCain than winning Republicans from McCain. I don´t know the internals of this poll, but I think that Democrats and Republicans must account for about the same percentage to get these results. Lets compare this July 2004 SurveyUSA poll from AZ and SurveyUSA's February survey. In the 2004 poll, the composition was 44R, 31D and 25I - about what the 2004 Exit Poll from AZ showed (44-30-26). The July 2004 poll also showed Bush beating Kerry 53-41, which is about as accurate as it can get. Their February 2008 poll meanwhile suggested a composition of 41R, 37D - with McCain leading Obama by 12 then. The 2004 AZ exit poll showed a 14-point turnout advantage for the Republicans, the 2006 exit poll a 8-9% advantage. Could it be that in the last 2 years Democrats narrowed the gap to lower single digits ? If yes, these Rasmussen results make perfect sense, if not and turnout is like 2004 or 2006, I think they are heavily underestimating McCain.

After a random check of my E-mails a couple of minutes ago, I saw that Rasmussen finally responded to one of my requests concerning this poll. I asked him what the party identification of this poll was like:

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[Tender Branson]

Notice, six per cent for Barr, more than "not sure."

McCain is working hard to send voters to Barr!

Not "Barr", it was about "Generic Other" = (Barr, Nader, McKinney, Generic Protest candidate ...)