Census 2020 apportionments to be released by April 30; redistricting by Sept 30

[Tender Branson]

Why did Biden stop the CVAP numbers? Was there fear that SCOTUS would allow that data to be used for apportionment purposes? I think that you had informed me the CVAP numbers out there are stale and very inaccurate in some places. Without good numbers, how can you get the the Goldilocks point that makes you a good VRA warrior?

The Census Bureau already has to figure out the total population based on 67% self-response and the remaining 33% coming from often dubious efforts to count people, so how should they produce a citizen-only population if citizenship wasn’t even part of the questionnaire ?

Data on non-citizens is very limited and can only be produced by the annual ACS, which is a survey of a few hundred thousand households and no complete enumeration.

All of this is more reason for the US to adopt a CVSR.

[Tender Branson]

Why did Biden stop the CVAP numbers? Was there fear that SCOTUS would allow that data to be used for apportionment purposes? I think that you had informed me the CVAP numbers out there are stale and very inaccurate in some places. Without good numbers, how can you get the the Goldilocks point that makes you a good VRA warrior?

The Census Bureau already has to figure out the total population based on 67% self-response and the remaining 33% coming from often dubious efforts to count people, so how should they produce a citizen-only population if citizenship wasn’t even part of the questionnaire ?

Data on non-citizens is very limited and can only be produced by the annual ACS, which is a survey of a few hundred thousand households and no complete enumeration.

All of this is more reason for the US to adopt a CVSR.

What does CVSR stand for?  What is it?

A CVSR is a Central Vital Statistics Registry that most European countries have (in Austria, it’s the ZMR/PSR).

Once people get born, their data is entered immediately (incl. citizenship and place of main residence), when they move it is registered and when they die it is registered.

With such an up-to-date registry you can conduct a census every year at 1/10th the cost of a traditional census (or even less costly).

[Tender Branson]

Why did Biden stop the CVAP numbers? Was there fear that SCOTUS would allow that data to be used for apportionment purposes? I think that you had informed me the CVAP numbers out there are stale and very inaccurate in some places. Without good numbers, how can you get the the Goldilocks point that makes you a good VRA warrior?

The Census Bureau already has to figure out the total population based on 67% self-response and the remaining 33% coming from often dubious efforts to count people, so how should they produce a citizen-only population if citizenship wasn’t even part of the questionnaire ?

Data on non-citizens is very limited and can only be produced by the annual ACS, which is a survey of a few hundred thousand households and no complete enumeration.

All of this is more reason for the US to adopt a CVSR.

What does CVSR stand for?  What is it?

A CVSR is a Central Vital Statistics Registry that most European countries have (in Austria, it’s the ZMR/PSR).

Once people get born, their data is entered immediately (incl. citizenship and place of main residence), when they move it is registered and when they die it is registered.

With such an up-to-date registry you can conduct a census every year at 1/10th the cost of a traditional census (or even less costly).

Worth noting such a registry is far from infallible. Many of my friends live in the mainland, in places like Madrid or Barcelona; yet they remain registered in the Canaries for various reasons (most notably, flight discounts to come home)

While you are meant to register at your new house, and a majority of people do it, there is a minority who moves without changing the registration

That doesn't mean the registry is flawed though ...

People are still registered with their main residence somewhere, unlike in the US where a lot of people go unnoticed.

European bureaucracy is also structured in a way that you have to show up in at least some register somewhere, be it the CPR, the foreigner registry, the housing registry, the tax registry, the school registry, social insurance registry, pension payment registry, car registry or what else.

Austria for example used and will use and examine about 20 main registers in it's 2011 and 2021 register census to weed out "Karteileichen" (database bodies, or people that do not exist or are not in the country any longer). After comparison of all of those registers in 2011, slightly less than 1% of the ZMR reference date stock was flagged as "needs to be checked further" because of evidence that this person doesn't live any longer in the country or at all. Of those 70.000 clearing cases, a governmental letter was sent to their main residence and about 60% of them were actually returned after several letters. That left an error rate of about 30.000 out of 8.4 million people, or about 0.4% of the total population.

These are mostly people who went abroad, but didn't de-register in their town.

As a result, Austria now clears its ZMR central population register frequently and produces an annual mini-census, without the quality checks mentioned above. That minimizes the cumulative errors for a 10-year time span. The 2021 Census will cost only 10 Mio. €, instead of almost 500 Mio. € for the last traditional paper census in 2001.

These population registers therefore allow for a more competent census.

In Spain, it's pretty much the same thing as here, but I guess Spain still uses the traditional census despite having a national population register as well.

It's also easier for elections: with a CPR, you can easily screen for every voting-age and voting-eligible person in the country, who are then automatically registered to vote.

[Tender Branson]

These population registers therefore allow for a more competent census.

In Spain, it's pretty much the same thing as here, but I guess Spain still uses the traditional census despite having a national population register as well.

It's also easier for elections: with a CPR, you can easily screen for every voting-age and voting-eligible person in the country, who are then automatically registered to vote.

Yeah, this is all correct, I guess you are right

For the record, like you say Spain does do a more traditional census as well I think

However it is worth noting that Spain's apportionments get done by the CPR based off your registration, which update on a yearly basis. This is also why reapportionment here happens basically every time an election gets called. And like you say, it also allows for automatic voter registration at whichever adress you are registered on.

This does create some niche scenarios where people who move shortly before election day have a hard time figuring out where they have to vote but I guess it's a very small number of cases.

That's indeed a very small number of people.

And even if you are registered with your main residence in the Canaries or Vorarlberg and move to Madrid or Vienna around the election, you can request a postal ballot and it's sent to your new address.

Most people often just move a few km and can drive into their neighbouring former town to vote.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.
But not this year.
The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.
State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).
It’s Indiana’s problem.
IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.
They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

We've gone from having high quality data on 12/31 to waiting 9 months to release it to all the bodies required to use this information, which also screws over everyone filing for elections in 2022.

The campaign period is way too long anyway.

There’s basically constant campaigning from one election (2020) to another (2022) ...

The primaries should be held not earlier than September, then 1 or 2 debates, and then the GE in early November.

Filing shouldn’t start in 2021, but in July 2022.

[Tender Branson]

Fresh 2020 Census Count numbers would be out today, by law, usually.
But not this year.
The Bureau said yesterday that the deadline will not be met and while not mentioning a date of release, the new numbers will likely be out between February and April.

Just talking for my state, there's a big problem with that.
State legislature shuts up shop for business in April, meaning if the Census doesn't release data until April, you'd have to wait until the 2022 session for the legislature to pass a bill with the new districts for federal and state. But people are required to file for primaries in January and February.

That’s really not the Census Bureau’s problem .... (They had enough on their own).
It’s Indiana’s problem.
IN and it’s legislature could also work in September, right ? Other people have to work the whole year as well and not stop in April.

Well how it always worked in the past is the Census was released on time and they released new districts in a year that ends in 1, all complete by April.
They could have a special session later in the year to do it, but that means the state has to spend extra money not previously earmarked because the federal government bureaucrats can't meet a date of release. It's okay, we can just send the Census Bureau a bill for the costs, right?

What was the census bureau supposed to do? Do a rushed job and give the states messed up census data?

On December 31st Tender Branson stated in the census thread on page 51 that the Census Bureau said the data quality was high as he posted a press release from them saying as much. If releasing now is a rush job with messed up census data, then the press release was incredibly premature.

We've gone from having high quality data on 12/31 to waiting 9 months to release it to all the bodies required to use this information, which also screws over everyone filing for elections in 2022.

The campaign period is way too long anyway.

There’s basically constant campaigning from one election (2020) to another (2022) ...

The primaries should be held not earlier than September, then 1 or 2 debates, and then the GE in early November.

Filing shouldn’t start in 2021, but in July 2022.

If you're on this board you should be smart enough to know how sh**t works. People plan campaigns NOW by talking to people in the background and seeing if they would back them or not, hiring a small number of staff, go out and meet and greet. There's a lot of shaking and jostling on who is going to be the candidate among people that never see a ballot. Democrats in Indiana did not have a stated governor candidate for 2020 until the summer of 2019 and this was considered the latest ever for that to occur.

My state we're supposed to be 11 months away from filing for 2022 primaries. It closes in about a year from now. This is all prep for primaries the first Tuesday in May. No one knows what geographically they're running for and won't until very late in the game.

I know how sh#t works.

Many states are just very inflexible when it comes to adapting to unforeseen circumstances such as delayed census numbers.

They must be bipartisan, move back the filing deadlines and primaries if they want districts based on the new numbers. If not, they can use the old data for 2021 and 2022.

The candidate talking to potential supporters and early campaigning can be done already behind the scenes anyway. This has nothing to do with the filing deadlines. If they move the filing deadlines to a later date. It’s not impossible.

There are several states who have their primaries as late as mid-September (MA, NH etc.) - no need to have such early primaries and deadlines ...

[Tender Branson]

Delayed municipal elections in N.C. due to the "high quality data on New Year's Eve" not being published until 9 months later.

A) nobody cares about a random NC municipal election. They can adapt to the release.

B) "high quality data on New Year's Eve" doesn't really matter, because yeah, it was high-quality - but data collection only ended in late October and it takes 4 months to come up with the results of the population count even in years without Covid.

[Tender Branson]

Delayed municipal elections in N.C. due to the "high quality data on New Year's Eve" not being published until 9 months later.

A) nobody cares about a random NC municipal election. They can adapt to the release.

Just like nobody in those random North Carolina municipalities gives a sh**t about the opinion of an Austrian when it comes to their democracy.

(The city of Raleigh by the way, very random, you're demonstrating your intelligence on our country and discussing these issues there.)

"high quality data on New Year's Eve" doesn't really matter, because yeah, it was high-quality - but data collection only ended in late October and it takes 4 months to come uphttp://ballot-access.org/2021/02/18/illinois-2022-primary-date-may-be-moved/ with the results of the population count even in years without Covid.

So how can they say you have high quality data on 12/31 if they knew they were collecting data in late October and, per you and your own post, can't produce results from that data until late February? I work on federal government contracts with deadlines, and that would not pass muster with the feds if I tried that.

Wow, Raleigh.

So important.

That’s a city of just 400k people, smaller than the state of Carinthia - which has municipal elections next Sunday.

That’s like me talking about a municipal election in nearby Maishofen.

[Tender Branson]

Delayed municipal elections in N.C. due to the "high quality data on New Year's Eve" not being published until 9 months later.

A) nobody cares about a random NC municipal election. They can adapt to the release.

Just like nobody in those random North Carolina municipalities gives a sh**t about the opinion of an Austrian when it comes to their democracy.

(The city of Raleigh by the way, very random, you're demonstrating your intelligence on our country and discussing these issues there.)

"high quality data on New Year's Eve" doesn't really matter, because yeah, it was high-quality - but data collection only ended in late October and it takes 4 months to come uphttp://ballot-access.org/2021/02/18/illinois-2022-primary-date-may-be-moved/ with the results of the population count even in years without Covid.

So how can they say you have high quality data on 12/31 if they knew they were collecting data in late October and, per you and your own post, can't produce results from that data until late February? I work on federal government contracts with deadlines, and that would not pass muster with the feds if I tried that.

Wow, Raleigh.

So important.

That’s a city of just 400k people, smaller than the state of Carinthia - which has municipal elections next Sunday.

That’s like me talking about a municipal election in nearby Maishofen.

Last I checked, this is a thread and forum about American politics. Nobody cares about your thoughts on Austria and nobody asked them to bring them here. If you can't discuss things in a civil manner and with respect for other people, then you should leave. You certainly aren't contributing anything to this discussion or this forum.

Dude, nobody cares what you think.

I have contributed far more to the topics here, while you just bump in here to this topic randomly to attack me without any substance ...

[Tender Branson]

I have contributed far more to the topics here, while you just bump in here to this topic randomly to attack me without any substance ...

Your "contribution" here is an unprovoked attack on those of us who care about the effect that delayed census data will have on a prominent city in a closely-contested swing state; your comment is even more outrageous because you have clearly missed the obvious context here: Raleigh was only named as a single example of a problem that is not just affecting municipalities throughout North Carolina, but will also certainly cause similar problems nationwide.

This thread was literally created for the purpose of discussing the Census Bureau's altered schedule for the release of redistricting data, and the problems being caused by this unprecedented delay. Elsewhere in this thread we're talking about states like Virginia and New Jersey using their outdated maps into this new decade (which in any other circumstances would be totally unconstitutional) and other states like Ohio filing lawsuits demanding early data access in order to meet their own constitutional deadlines.

While these discussions have mostly focused on statewide redistricting, it's absolutely relevant here to discuss how prominent municipalities are being affected as well. These cities are facing a serious dilemma, too: should they hold elections on the legally required election date using illegal outdated district maps, or should they illegally delay their elections and hope they will be able to draw new districts in time? They're forced into an impossible situation and face lawsuits not just from their own citizens, but from both their state and federal governments as well.

How in the hell is this discussion not relevant here? How do you possibly believe you have the right to arbitrate what information is sufficiently "important" for inclusion here when it's entirely relevant to the ongoing discussion here? This is a thread about the political consequences of an altered redistricting process in the United States... on a discussion board for political geography and demographics... on a forum literally called TALK ELECTIONS... associated with and until recently literally named after a WEBSITE DEDICATED TO THE ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY OF THE UNITED STATES!

How could you possibly believe this is in any way comparable to you butting into our conversation to rant about an Alpine Austrian village of three thousand people that literally none of us here have ever even heard of?

How would you feel if you were talking about Austria in a thread on the International Elections board and someone jumped into the thread, apropos of nothing, to post the following:

Wow, Austria.

So important.

That's a nation of just 9 million people, smaller than the state of North Carolina - which has municipal elections next Sunday.

That's like me talking about a municipal election in nearby Asheville.

Do you not understand how this is belligerent, inappropriate, and in general something only a total asshole would do?

You absolutely deserve to be called out for your toxic and disrespectful attitude. If you don't think our discussion is "important" enough for you, then frankly why are you even here in such an "unimportant" thread? Why are you even a member of this community if you are so eager to proclaim your disdain for the stuff we're literally on this website to discuss? Your attitude is unacceptable and does NOT belong here. Xahar is right -- if you stay so belligerent, then don't stay on the forum. If you are going to be an ass then you do not belong here.

10.000 people.

Your lengthy post only shows how you guys (who clearly have a problem with me) are obsessed with every little thing I post.

Why would you care about such things ?

Get a life.

I will comment on what I want and how I want and I won’t let you guys tell me what to do ...