Which poster will be eating the most crow after the Election?

[Tender Branson]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

[Tender Branson]

>NV to the right of AZ
>ME-02 to the left of PA

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

I'm actually a bit unsure about NV and ME-2.

Maybe NV will vote Biden, ME-2 for Trump again, creating a 269-269 tie.

In which case Trump would likely be re-elected by the House delegations.

[Tender Branson]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

I think Trump will do somewhat well with the Latinos in certain states and Biden not as well with Whites compared to what polls say.

But not in all.

For example, Biden should struggle to win NV, while doing better with AZ Whites.

I expect Southern/Sunbelt Whites to swing a bit more towards Biden than the Northern Great Lakes Whites. Biden should also do well with the NE Whites for example in NH and Maine.

Combined, this will lead to some really crazy results.

On the other hand, I predicted a slim Hillary-win last time (but easily thought Trump could surprise as well, which he did).

So, this time I'm doing the reversed thing: predict a slight Trump win, while easily thinking that Biden could win in a surprise ...

Let's see how it plays out ...

[Tender Branson]

This is also some sort of a hybrid map, with some elements of a nice Biden win (if it happens), or a surprise Trump win (if it happens).

I will refine this over the next days.

For example I have WA with 60%+ for Biden, indicating a nice Biden win.

I have MI at 50%+ for Biden as well, indicating a nice Biden win as well.

On the other hand, I have NC as a 50%+ win for Trump - indicating a good result for him in the South (NC is the first state to report on election night and I expect something like 51-47 or 50-48 for him there.)

This hybrid map will probably allow my prediction to score well again on the "score" metric, but probably not as well on the "total state wins" metric ...

[Tender Branson]

Biden is up by 9 nationally, Trump isn’t anywhere close to favored lol.

He might be, or he might not be.

I think he's more up by 3-5 in reality, with many swing states behaving in a wild manner.

This year has all the ingredients to produce a really strange map ...

[Tender Branson]

So I see we've learned absolutely nothing from 2018's panic over Nevada.

I would generally see NV going to Biden, but his extremely weak performance there during the caucus (much worse than Hillary) could mean a surprise win for Trump there this time ...

[Tender Branson]

Tender Branson literally predicted a Trump victory out of nowhere today so he’s a candidate

Here's my new prediction:





Ridicule at your own risk.

Explain your reasoning for NV/PA/NE-02/NC

NV is already explained above.

PA is kind of a strange state, with polling very stable, but also not really much more than Biden+5 on average.

I could somehow see it as a 2020 version of Al Gore's home state TN in 2000, which was expected to go to Gore but then Bush won it by a modest margin.

Anyway, if Trump wins it again, it will be by a very small margin again. The numbers might not be there for Biden.

NE-02 and NC could remain Trump because Evangelical voters "thank" him for his conservative Supreme Court pick.

And there's some kind of polling error in those states, but more in PA and NE-02 than in NC.

[Tender Branson]

There are also other - more psychological reasons - why Trump might win again, but I will explain those on Wednesday if he really wins, because I don't want to look like an idiot right now.

(Hopefully, I don't have to explain those reasons at all next week ...)

[Tender Branson]

Ridicule at your own risk.

I think Trump will do somewhat well with the Latinos in certain states and Biden not as well with Whites compared to what polls say.

But not in all.

For example, Biden should struggle to win NV, while doing better with AZ Whites.

I expect Southern/Sunbelt Whites to swing a bit more towards Biden than the Northern Great Lakes Whites. Biden should also do well with the NE Whites for example in NH and Maine.

Combined, this will lead to some really crazy results.

On the other hand, I predicted a slim Hillary-win last time (but easily thought Trump could surprise as well, which he did).

So, this time I'm doing the reversed thing: predict a slight Trump win, while easily thinking that Biden could win in a surprise ...

Let's see how it plays out ...

Wow, that would have been a good analysis after all.

Should have stuck to that.