2020 Poll Hype Thread (user search)
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Author Topic: 2020 Poll Hype Thread  (Read 192781 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #75 on: July 23, 2020, 01:14:01 PM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on July 23, 2020, 12:41:33 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on July 23, 2020, 12:07:19 PM
FL - Quinnipiac:

50% Biden
41% Trump
 3% Others (both Jorgensen & Hawkins are on the ballot in FL, but were probably not polled)
 6% Undecided

Is this your pick?

Biden 48
Trump 44 is mine

Biden +13 are the actual results.

I win.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #76 on: July 26, 2020, 06:55:01 AM »
CBS News / Face the Nation will have a new "Battleground Tracker" later today.

This could either mean a couple new polls from swing states, or an update of their 50-state model, or both.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #77 on: July 28, 2020, 01:39:45 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on July 28, 2020, 11:07:55 AM
Monmouth Poll for Georgia tomorrow:

GA (Monmouth):

47-47 Trump/Biden

49-44 Perdue/Ossoff

Assuming they polled the Senate Special Runoff:

49-42 Collins/Warnock
50-42 Collins/Lieberman

(Collins is ahead in the primary, if they polled it)
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #78 on: July 31, 2020, 11:55:16 PM »
Quote from: LCameronOR on July 31, 2020, 01:08:00 PM
A crowfunding effort to poll Louisiana at the presidential and senate levels has been launched:
 
[tweet]

A poll out of LA is long overdue.

The state has never been polled so far.

My guess:

48-41-3-8 Trump/Biden/Others/Undecided
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #79 on: August 04, 2020, 10:37:01 PM »
IA - Monmouth:

Biden+1
Greenfield+4
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #80 on: August 06, 2020, 10:57:50 AM »

Nice.

It must be noted that Quinnipiac has never polled those states before for a Presidential or Senate election.

Only SC for the Democratic primary this year.

My guesses:

ME: Biden+13, Gideon+4 (Biden+2 in the 2nd CD)
KY: Trump+16, McConnell+13
SC: Trump+4, Graham+2
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #81 on: August 10, 2020, 10:30:07 PM »
My guesses:

MN (Emerson): Biden+10
KS (SurveyUSA): Trump+10
US (Monmouth): Biden+6 (HLV: Biden+5, LLV: Biden+7)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #82 on: August 12, 2020, 11:54:10 AM »
Quote from: Lucas Whitefur on August 12, 2020, 08:08:31 AM
I'm excited for that Kansas poll. Hopefully Bollier is leading.

Don’t get too excited ...

Kobach was the only way for her to be tied or ahead.

Now, it’s Marshall+8.

And Trump+10.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #83 on: August 20, 2020, 11:36:04 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on August 20, 2020, 11:34:47 PM
Any word on when we'll be getting a barrage of quality post-DNC polling?

Polls during the conventions are meaningless.

Only in 3 weeks the dust has settled and they can be taken seriously again.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #84 on: August 25, 2020, 10:52:09 AM »
UNF doing presidential election polling work for The New York Times’ The UpShot

Quote
The University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab is polling swing states in the Nov. 3 presidential election for The New York Times’ website The UpShot.

The research lab’s Faculty Director Michael Binder told members of the Meninak Club of Jacksonville business and civic group Aug. 24 that UNF pollsters will build on data gathered for The UpShot in June.

Binder said the UNF lab is a subcontractor in The New York Times’ project to gauge registered and likely voters’ taste for President Donald Trump and Democratic challenger Joe Biden’s policies.

UNF will poll likely voters in Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Pennsylvania, Binder said. The UpShot also could add Texas to the UNF list.

Aug. 21-22 data from poll aggregation website FiveThirtyEight.com shows Trump leading Biden 47.3% to 46.4% in historically Republican-voting Texas.

The New York Times created The UpShot in April 2014 to examine “politics, policy and everyday life in new ways.”

The project engaged in live, real-time polling on election night for 2018 midterm elections, among other initiatives.

Binder said Aug. 24 that stemmed from the UpShot’s success doing data-driven journalism during special election races in 2017.

“The New York Times thought, ‘Well, we can essentially generate fake election results by doing these polls and producing them so quickly,’” Binder said. “It was intensely complicated and probably not worth it. What they’re doing this time is they’re targeting battleground states and it’s a moving target.”

Binder said he likes that The UpShot releases the methods used to gather its samples of likely voters. He said that gives readers a better understanding of who is being questioned and how it might impact the accuracy of the poll.

“They were doing some fascinating things with transparency and how this works,” Binder said.

Binder told the Meninak Club The UpShot determines likely voter status based 56% by voting history and 44% on self-reporting on the likelihood they will vote in the 2020 election.

https://www.jaxdailyrecord.com/article/unf-doing-presidential-election-polling-work-for-the-new-york-times-the-upshot

UNF was a bit too Democratic in 2016 and 2018, showing Hillary winning FL by 3-4 points and Gillium by 6, but Nelson only by 1.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #85 on: August 31, 2020, 12:39:11 PM »
Quote from: SaneDemocrat on August 31, 2020, 12:22:32 PM
This race will be hard to analyze because there have been son fewpolls.

There will be a lot after Labor Day.

Nobody is wasting money during the unstable convention times ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #86 on: September 11, 2020, 12:00:50 AM »
New OR poll coming soon (questions held for future release):

https://www.dhmresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/DHM-Panel-Protests-memo_final-September-2020.pdf
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #87 on: September 11, 2020, 08:36:48 AM »
Rasmussen NC Pres. + Senate poll coming today.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #88 on: September 11, 2020, 08:58:24 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 11, 2020, 08:54:03 AM

Huh, those looking for a "surprise" in Oregon look to be disappointed, Trump's approval at 39/59.

That's his approval to the protests in Portland only, not his overall job approval in the state.

But yeah, I don't think OR will be all too close in that poll.

Maybe high single digits for Biden (+8) to about +12.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #89 on: September 11, 2020, 12:21:32 PM »
Talk Business AR-02 poll coming Sunday:

https://talkbusiness.net/2020/09/poll-7-in-10-second-district-voters-give-gov-hutchinson-high-marks-for-job-performance/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #90 on: September 11, 2020, 12:57:14 PM »
Quote from: darthpi on September 11, 2020, 11:05:39 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 11, 2020, 08:58:24 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 11, 2020, 08:54:03 AM

Huh, those looking for a "surprise" in Oregon look to be disappointed, Trump's approval at 39/59.

That's his approval to the protests in Portland only, not his overall job approval in the state.

But yeah, I don't think OR will be all too close in that poll.

Maybe high single digits for Biden (+8) to about +12.

Put me down for Biden +18

Actual result: Biden +12
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #91 on: September 11, 2020, 02:42:55 PM »
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #92 on: September 12, 2020, 03:43:13 AM »
NV: Biden+7
MN: Biden+11
WI: Biden+9
NH: Biden+7
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #93 on: September 16, 2020, 10:15:32 AM »
KY: Trump+13
ME: Biden+14 (Biden+2 in the 2nd CD)
SC: Trump+9

McConnell+14, Gideon+8, Graham+4.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #94 on: September 19, 2020, 02:36:17 PM »
IA - DMR/Selzer:

45% - Trump
43% - Biden
  2% - Jorgensen
  1% - Hawkins
  1% - West
  2% - Others
  6% - Undecided
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #95 on: September 19, 2020, 02:42:02 PM »
Quote from: KaiserDave on September 19, 2020, 02:40:20 PM
Quote from: Tender Branson on September 19, 2020, 02:36:17 PM
IA - DMR/Selzer:

45% - Trump
43% - Biden
  2% - Jorgensen
  1% - Hawkins
  1% - West
  2% - Others
  6% - Undecided

Should probably junk just to be safe because of RBG, but this is a good poll for Joe and I don't expect her death to change much.

That's only my prediction, not the actual poll ...

IA has a huge amount of third parties on the ballot, so I expect no candidate to reach 50% on election day.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #96 on: September 22, 2020, 01:00:27 AM »
WHERE'S MY IOWA SELZER POLL ?!?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #97 on: September 27, 2020, 09:58:16 AM »
MI and WI polls are annoying.

Better poll Alaska, Kansas, South Carolina, Missouri, Arkansas, Louisiana and West Virginia more.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #98 on: September 29, 2020, 10:31:58 AM »
Was Trump +6/+7 in their Sept. 2016 poll.

I predict Trump+2.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #99 on: October 04, 2020, 12:25:35 AM »
If the CBS poll for OH shows a Trump lead, OH will go Trump-blue on the Atlas poll map.

For the first time this year (3 Trump-leads in a row).

https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2020/polls.php
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