2020 Poll Hype Thread

[Tender Branson]

Memerson:

https://twitter.com/emersonpolling/status/1221510728856801286

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I'd rate the chances of a final Quinnipiac IA poll tomorrow or Monday at 75%.

Quinnipiac usually does that.

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Right decision to cancel the poll, even if it looks terrible for Selzer/DMR/CNN !

Callcenters cannot simply leave out Pete’s name when reading the list of candidates to respondents and expect nobody will notice !

Do a poll properly, or don’t do it at all !

[Tender Branson]

Right decision to cancel the poll, even if it looks terrible for Selzer/DMR/CNN !

Callcenters cannot simply leave out Pete’s name when reading the list of candidates to respondents and expect nobody will notice !

Do a poll properly, or don’t do it at all !

Breaking News: Atlas' biggest Buttigieg supporter opposes releasing poll numbers called under question by Buttigieg supporter

Shocking!

I would say the same about scrapping the poll, if another candidate voiced concerns over conduct ...

[Tender Branson]

Leaks:

Apparently, the poll showed Warren gaining and Bernie collapsing.

https://www.inquisitr.com/5868908/selzer-poll-bernie-sanders-free-fall

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NBC has no IA poll today, it’s a national one:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/meet-the-press/nbc-wsj-poll-country-remains-divided-over-trump-s-impeachment-n1128326

[Tender Branson]

The CNN/Univ. of NH poll for NH will probably be out on Monday:

The University of New Hampshire Survey Center assured CNN — which, along with WMUR-TV, sponsors its pre-primary polling — that everything would work as it should. Unlike the Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, which is captained by Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer and contracts with an outside call center to conduct interviews — UNH conducts its polling in-house and closely monitors its procedures.

But while they’re confident their final New Hampshire survey will be released without incident, it doesn’t mean it will accurately predict the winner of Tuesday’s primary.

Between the crowded field of candidates, the compressed timeline after an ambiguous Iowa result and Granite Staters’ historical penchant for last-minute commitments, the performance of this year’s New Hampshire polls could exceed its notorious reputation for volatility.

Even UNH pollster Andrew Smith said it’s “a fool’s errand” to try to nail the results with the final poll.

“If we’re getting out of the field on Sunday night [before the primary], we’re asking people who they’re going to vote for when half of them don’t know who they’re going to vote for yet,” Smith said. “It’s kind of a crapshoot, to tell you the truth.”

Smith and UNH haven’t published a new poll since Iowa, but other pollsters have tried to fill the void. Two Boston media outlets with reach into New Hampshire, The Boston Globe and WBZ-TV, are working with Suffolk University, also in Boston, to conduct a nightly tracking poll of the race. The survey began in the immediate run-up to Iowa and has been showing changes in the race here since.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/08/new-hampshire-polling-iowa-111798

[Tender Branson]

There are a few new NH polls that came out. It's important to remember that these are pre-debate numbers. They give us a good idea on where things stand going into the debate, and maybe we'll have some post-debate polls Monday.

According to the aggregate, Sanders 26%, Buttigieg 22.5%, Warren 13%, Biden 13%, Klobuchar 8%. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/nh/new_hampshire_democratic_presidential_primary-6276.html

I don't think that Pete will gain much further in the polls.

But this has nothing to do with the debate, but with the fact that he just gained 10% already since Iowa.

If he wins, it will probably not show up in the final polls - but on election day - if many independent women secure his victory.

[Tender Branson]

The CNN/UNH is a daily tracking poll:

https://scholars.unh.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1573&context=survey_center_polls

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Another national poll today by Quinnipiac:

https://twitter.com/quinnipiacpoll/status/1226899878107725824

It seems they are not releasing a final NH poll.

[Tender Branson]

Another national poll today by Quinnipiac:

https://twitter.com/quinnipiacpoll/status/1226899878107725824
It seems they are not releasing a final NH poll.

We've enough NH Polls out I think. National Polls are interesting especially now after Iowa. My bet is that Sanders is leading or is tied with Biden. Also, both of these Polls will be "Qualifying Polls" and may get Bloomberg into the Nevada Debate.

Bloomberg has just 1/4 necessary polls so far, so even if he scores in both today, he needs another one.

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Only 80.000 out of 620.000 Democrats will caucus.

That makes it quite difficult for pollsters to produce credible numbers.

They don’t want to end up as a laughingstock, so most are probably skipping this contest.

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https://twitter.com/monmouthpoll/status/1229449777676460032

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Does anyone know when the Marist poll is released?

In 5 hours.

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Brian Stelter (CNN) says 2 qualifying polls will be out today:

# Marist/PBS/NPR
# NBC/WSJ

To date Bloomberg has eschewed most TV interview requests and has sidestepped the debate process since he hasn't qualified for any of them. Due to a change in the qualification rules, removing the requirement for individual donors, he is eligible for Wednesday's NBC/MSNBC/Nevada Independent debate -- but he needs to top 10% in one more state or national poll. The deadline is Tuesday night, and he has multiple chances to qualify, according to my sources.

NPR, PBS NewsHour and Marist will release a poll at 5am Tuesday, an NPR spokeswoman confirmed Monday night.

NBC News and its polling partner, the WSJ, are also in the field with a poll, and the results will be released later in the day on Tuesday, two sources said.

There could be other polls, too, but these are the two I know about. Bottom line: Bloomberg seems likely to qualify. The NBC moderators and producers are preparing accordingly. If he is on stage, it will be his biggest test yet...

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/17/media/michael-bloomberg-primary-debate/index.html

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/monmouthpoll/status/1230173307804246017

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There could be CBS/YouGov polls coming today, or not.

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https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/1259867477816770561

By „California“, I hope they mean the special election tomorrow ...

Why would they poll the general election there ?

My guesses:

OH: Biden+1
TX: Trump+2
CA: Biden+30

[Tender Branson]

I have a poll: I cannot post links yet because I am new, so go to the allcounted website and search in the survey search bar "2020 Election Poll". Thank you! Results will be counted if we get enough people to make an accurate count.

I finished your survey.

I entered Boulder, CO as my location - even though I'm from Austria.

[Tender Branson]

Texas Quinnipiac Poll is incoming today:

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1268196279747739649

49-45 Trump !

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AZ will be Biden +7 and IA Biden +1.

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New AR TalkBusiness/Hendrix College poll coming this weekend.

[Tender Branson]

New AR TalkBusiness/Hendrix College poll coming this weekend.

I guess this is the first AR poll for the 2020 election ...

My guess:

54-37-2 Trump/Biden/Others

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Iowa Poll!

Biden +1

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Iowa Poll!

Biden +1

Their last one was Trump+10, so that would be quite a jump.

It’s going to happen, mark my words !

+/- 2%