IA State Fair kernel poll

[Tender Branson]

The fair has only started.

There will be thousands more votes ...

[Tender Branson]

Next years results of the Iowa fair straw poll will be more important.

Trump beat Hillary by 11 points in August 2016 and by 10 in the election.

http://www.iowastatedaily.com/news/politics_and_administration/state/trump-grassley-win-iowa-state-fair-straw-poll/article_745d7640-687c-11e6-b5d1-47067467e47f.html

[Tender Branson]

Good numbers for Pete.

[Tender Branson]

How this works:

(btw, can kids "vote" there as well ?)

[Tender Branson]

After 2 days, the fair has already more votes than during 2 weeks in 2015 ...

[Tender Branson]

Of course they have 2 jars for every candidate ...

Once "Biden 1" is full with kernels, they take this one for counting and replace it with "Biden 2" so people can vote and don't have to be sent away.

[Tender Branson]

After Day 3:

52% D
48% R

97% Trump
  3% Welp

25% Biden
16% Buttigieg
16% Warren
12% Harris
  7% Sanders
  4% Gabbard
  4% Booker
  3% Klobuchar
  2% Yang
  2% Steyer
  2% O'Rourke

Biden dropping a bit, Buttigieg and Sanders rising slightly.

Everyone else with 1% or less.

https://whotv.com/2019/08/08/cast-your-kernel-results-4

Some 15.000-20.000 votes have been cast (no actual numbers shown yet).

[Tender Branson]

The results of last year's Iowa State Fair were pretty damn close to the actual Governor election results: Reynolds+3

[Tender Branson]

Based on current trends I guess that 60-70.000 votes will be cast at the State Fair.

That would be ca. 1/3 of the expected caucus turnout next year ...

So, should be pretty indicative of the eventual results (obviously, not all Fair visitors are from Iowa and I'm still not sure if kids can vote or not).

[Tender Branson]

3% Welp

Purpose or Freudian slip?

Purpose.

[Tender Branson]

Update:

17.000 votes cast in 3 days.

Another 8 days to go.

[Tender Branson]

Final Sunday numbers (there’s another week, but I expect Monday to Thursday numbers won’t be as good as weekends):

23k votes cast so far.

[Tender Branson]

Can someone please explain why this is an unscientific poll?

The fair attendees seem like a random distribution of Iowa voters.

A) They could let children vote.

B) Fair-goers are not just from Iowa.

C) Nobody knows the composition of fair-goers: they could skew older or lean Republican (= this poll is not weighted to represent the Iowa electorate)

[Tender Branson]

Update with ca. 30.000 votes cast (Monday 9pm):

Biden 24%
Buttigieg 16%
Warren 16%
Harris 11%
Sanders 9%
Booker 4%
Gabbard 4%
Klobuchar 3%
Steyer 3%
Yang 2%
O'Rourke 2%

Not much change, except for Harris who is down 2% to 11% and Republicans up to 49% (+1).

[Tender Branson]

In the additional Iowa SOS's State Fair poll, about 2.000 people have voted so far:

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/statefair/strawpoll/statefairresults.aspx

Voting is also unscientific, but done on IPads and not by throwing corn kernels into glasses.

The results are not so different to the WHO-TV straw poll though.

Trump also gets some 96-97%, but gets far less votes than Republican Joni Ernst for Senate. In the Democratic Senate race, 2 women are clearly ahead:

Among U.S. Senate candidates, Theresa Greenfield leads the Democratic field with 45% of the vote. Kimberly Graham is second, with 35%.

For POTUS (D), it's:

Biden garnered 19% of the votes for Democrats during the first four days of the State Fair. Warren is close behind with 17%. Pete Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders are third and fourth, with 12% and 11%, respectively.

In the WHO-TV, poll it's 24% Biden, 16% each for Warren and Buttigieg, 11% Harris and 9% Sanders, with 30.000 votes cast.

[Tender Branson]

Is this a debate qualifying poll

LOLno.

But good for publicity, for example for Pete.

[Tender Branson]

Pete rising !

Biden 23%
Buttigieg 17%
Warren 16%
Harris 11%
Sanders 8%
Booker 4%
Gabbard 4%
Steyer 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 2%
O'Rourke 2%

[Tender Branson]

This might be a reason for his gain:



Pete has:

* stopped by the Kernel poll
* campaigned at the Fair yesterday
* unveiled a rural investment plan

BTW: ca. 35K votes have now been cast.

[Tender Branson]

With 38.000 votes, Biden dropping further and Rs overtake Ds:

[Tender Branson]

Here is the trendline:

https://twitter.com/RidgeKnapp/status/1161726773178044416

Biden has dropped from 35% when the Iowa Fair started to 23% now.

[Tender Branson]

9am update with more than 40.000 kernels cast:



It seems the weekend vote leans Democratic, while the weekday vote leans Republican.

Democrats can hope to pull even or ahead again over the coming (final) weekend.

[Tender Branson]

Thursday 9pm update:

Biden 23%
Buttigieg 18%
Warren 15%
Harris 11%
Sanders 8%
Booker 4%
Gabbard 4%
Steyer 3%
Klobuchar 3%
Yang 2%
O'Rourke 2%

[Tender Branson]

Do you think there's a "reverse Gayley-Effect" going on with Buttigieg ?

People not telling pollsters their real intention, but voting for Pete in the actual elections that matter ?

[Tender Branson]

Behind the two old people (the left one is a former IA Governor) you can see that almost 47.000 votes have now been cast, but there's no movement any longer:

[Tender Branson]

Update (Republicans +4 vs. Democrats now):



Trump's numbers are pretty solid, considering he's at 51% of all votes cast.

He only got 40% of the vote in the Des Moines area in 2016 against Hillary.