Who's going to qualify for the Democratic debates?

[Tender Branson]

The DNC needs to reevaluate this criteria. Candidates like Yang (no matter now nice his platform is) and Williamson have no place on that debate stage. And Gabbard is barely better than them, but at least she’s held some office.

Don’t be such a snob.

Why should holding a previous office be any criteria ?

Anyone meeting the polling and fundraising criteria should be included, no problem.

[Tender Branson]

So apparently 42,000 people have donated to Marianne Williamson. A small football stadium's capacity of people have donated to Marianne Williamson. Let that sink in for a moment.

Not to mention that she will be at a CNN town hall next week, which could give her the additional 20.000 donors to qualify.

[Tender Branson]

16 candidates now qualify for the debates, either via polling, donors or both.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/16-candidates-now-qualify-for-the-first-democratic-primary-debates

Marianne Williamson is very close to qualifying, she only needs fewer than 9.000 donors as of yesterday (she's gaining about 1.000 donors every day now).

Moulton, Swalwell, Gravel and Messam are not qualified yet, but the first two definitely will.

So, with Williamson, Moulton and Swalwell it would make 19 qualified candidates, leaving room for one more: either Bennet or Bullock. If both qualify, probably Williamson gets knocked out of the debates, which would be kinda a shame.

[Tender Branson]

Moulton, Swalwell, Gravel and Messam are not qualified yet, but the first two definitely will.

Moulton has gotten 1% in zero qualifying polls so far, and he just got in the race this week, so his fundraising starts at 0 donors, with about six or seven weeks or however long it is to reach 65,000.  I'd say it's far from definite that he'll qualify by either measure within the allowed time.

If not by polls, Moulton and Swallwell will likely qualify with fundraising quite easily. They have shown that by running for Congress that they can raise a lot. And by running for POTUS, the money will come in even quicker than for Congress. And they still have until mid-June or something to qualify.

https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/04/seth-moulton-enters-2020-race

[Tender Branson]

So, if Williamson qualifies due to fundraising, that would leave Messam and Bennett, as the only declared candidates, who have not qualified

Bennet hasn't actually declared yet.  He did say he intended to run if his cancer treatment was successful, and his cancer treatment was successful, but he hasn't actually gone the extra step of confirming that he will now run for president.

He also forgot Moulton, who could still qualify with polls and/or fundraising as well ...

+ Gravel, if you want to count him as well.

[Tender Branson]

I believe Gravel was at 1% in either gravis, emerson, or both. Are those polls not counted? Can't blame them if they aren't, but...

Gravis, Emerson, PPP, Suffolk, HarrisX (= Scott Rasmussen), rest-Rasmussen, Morning Consult etc.

... none of them count for the debates.

[Tender Branson]

Moulton has set an online fundraising goal of 200.000$ for April, that's 9 days since launching his campaign.

Until the debates, there are ca. 56 days left - so 65 in total. So, if he meets the online goal and the trend continues, he'll get some 1.4-1.5 million $ in online donations until the debates.

Not sure if this is enough to get the 65.000 donations as well to qualify ... (It's a bit less than what Gabbard or Yang raised through the total 1st quarter and roughly what Williamson raised. It really depends on the number of donors though, because both Yang and Gabbard have qualified on donors, while Williamson has not).

Anyway, it seems that if Bullock and Bennet jump in and qualify via polls/donations, that Moulton and Williamson will fight out the last debate slot (but with the advantage for Williamson for now).

[Tender Branson]

Until the debates, there are ca. 56 days left - so 65 in total. So, if he meets the online goal and the trend continues, he'll get some 1.4-1.5 million $ in online donations until the debates.

From the DNC's original press release:

https://democrats.org/press/dnc-announces-details-for-the-first-two-presidential-primary-debates/

it looks like to qualify via polls, it has to be polls released at least 14 days prior to the debate.  However, there's no similar window explicitly mentioned for the fundraising method.  But I figure there kind of has to be.  They can't still be deciding who's going to be on the debate stage just a couple of hours before it starts.  That's impractical.  And in fact, a time window for fundraising seems more necessary than for polls, since the fundraising totals have to be vetted by the DNC for accuracy, whereas the polls are just public releases, where they can plug the numbers into a formula.

So, bottom line, I don't know that the candidates can really count on not making it to 65,000 as late as the day of the debate.

Interesting that they didn't include a cutoff date for donors like they did with the polls ...

Their press release says:

To demonstrate that the fundraising threshold has been reached, candidates must provide verifiable evidence, which they may do by authorizing ActBlue and/or NGP VAN to provide that evidence.

... which, theoretically, can be provided by a campaign on the day of the debates for example. If ActBlue etc. confirms to the DNC the number of donations, they don't need to re-check them.

Still, I think Williamson has the advantage over Moulton for now, because she already has 1 poll as qualification (zero for Moulton) and polls are the first qualifier, while donations are only the 2nd qualifier.

It could also be that both Williamson and Moulton make the debate as 19th and 20th, if Bennet waits too long to jump in.

[Tender Branson]

... which, theoretically, can be provided by a campaign on the day of the debates for example. If ActBlue etc. confirms to the DNC the number of donations, they don't need to re-check them.

I just think this is not very practical if we get to over 20 candidates qualifying and the fundraising numbers are relevant for tiebreakers.  What are they going to do?  Make provisional invitations for candidates, and then an hour before the debate say something like "Oops, looks like Seth Moulton has just pulled ahead of Marianne Williamson in number of donors, and they're competing for the 20th spot, so he's now in and she's out?" All the debates last time had invitations sent out to candidates like a week or so before the debate took place, and I've got to imagine that this time it'll be similar.

That’s probably exactly what’s going to happen if they don’t set a cutoff date for donors, just like they did with the polls ...

[Tender Branson]

The new Monmouth poll of NH only adds to the polls for people who've already qualified.  Candidates like Bennet, Messam, and Williamson failed to reach 1% again, and so still aren't qualified:

Biden 10
Booker 10
Buttigieg 10
Harris 10
Klobuchar 10
O’Rourke 10
Sanders 10
Warren 10
Yang 8
Castro 7
Gillibrand 6
Hickenlooper 5
Inslee 4
Ryan 4
Bullock 3
Delaney 3
Gabbard 3
Swalwell 3
———qualification line———
de Blasio 2
Bennet 1
Kerry 1
Messam 1
Williamson 1

Please drop Kerry from the list and include Moulton, Abrams, Gravel & Sandberg guy with 0 polls.

[Tender Branson]

Gravel is at 32,500.  It took him 34 days to reach that figure so if he maintains the same pace he will hit 65,000 on June 15th.  However, it seems unlikely he'll qualify for either of the summer debates due to the preference for candidates qualifying on polling.  

Another 34 days (June 15th) would be too long though, because the DNC's cutoff date for donors will likely be June 12th (2 weeks before the June 26 debate).

So, Gravel would have to pick up speed with his donations and then there are still Bennet and Moulton. Considering there are already 19 qualified candidates (with Bullock and Williamson), this looks like a longshot.

[Tender Branson]

There’s another 4 weeks left for polls, which means De Blasio and Bennet will likely make it to the debates as 19th and 20th, while Williamson and Moulton will fail as 21st and 22nd.

Gravel and Messam have no chance.

[Tender Branson]

Why would an open-ended poll not count for Bullock ?

Open-ended polls are even more indicative of the support a candidate has, because voters have to volunteer a name rather than being offered a list of candidates ...

[Tender Branson]

I actually think that if by the deadline on June 12th there are still 24 announced candidates, they should do a 3-nighter with 8 candidates each, to remain fair.

They can tighten the rules for the July debate then.

[Tender Branson]

I'm still favouring the 3-nights option.

And they should change that right now, because there are exactly 24 candidates.

Just 8 candidates each night would give the voters a better overview and more time for each candidate to respond to questions.

I think the dropouts will begin right after the first debate anyway, with Gravel and Messam calling it quits, so they can use 2 nights with 10 candidates each for the July debate.

[Tender Branson]

Marianne Williamson has now qualified for the debate via polling and fundraising, which is quite remarkable.

She got 1% in CNN, FOX and Monmouth polls.

[Tender Branson]

It is likely that there will be a final rush of qualifying polls over the next week or two and the DNC will likely break the tie for 20th by using the candidate with the most 1% results ...

[Tender Branson]

HUGE update:

The DNC has clarified to POLITICO that de Blasio's Reuters poll DOES count, but Bullock's ABC/WaPo poll DOES NOT count. That means de Blasio is confirmed to be at three polls, but Bullock falls back down to two polls, and is not qualified for the debates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/democratic-debates-2020-election-1356115

Updated chart:

(...)

WTF ?

Wasn't the WaPo poll open-ended ? Which means this is actually a better indicator of support for a candidate, because names are not read to respondents and they have to volunteer a name on their own ... !

[Tender Branson]

HUGE update:

The DNC has clarified to POLITICO that de Blasio's Reuters poll DOES count, but Bullock's ABC/WaPo poll DOES NOT count. That means de Blasio is confirmed to be at three polls, but Bullock falls back down to two polls, and is not qualified for the debates.

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/06/democratic-debates-2020-election-1356115

Updated chart:

(...)

WTF ?

Wasn't the WaPo poll open-ended ? Which means this is actually a better indicator of support for a candidate, because names are not read to respondents and they have to volunteer a name on their own ... !

Correct, WTF indeed. This is pretty ridiculous of the DNC to do this (especially because, at the same time, they are being lenient with de Blasio and counting his Reuters poll)

If true, the DNC is disgusting (or the ones who set this new criteria are).

Hopefully, a couple more polls will come out next week with Bullock at 1-2% support.

[Tender Branson]

Here is a look at the final polls that might come out (and they have to come out over the next 5 days (Saturday-Wednesday) in order to be used for the June debate qualification. On Thursday, the DNC will already decide which candidates have qualified and who are going to miss the first debate):

A) polls that are used as criteria: Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN (national), The Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa Poll, Fox News, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times, National Public Radio/Marist, Quinnipiac University, Reuters, the University of New Hampshire, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Winthrop University.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

B) the outlook:

* The new Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa Poll will be released today

* NPR/Marist might release a new one (they did yesterday, on abortion etc.)

* FOX, Monmouth and Quinnipiac might, because their last polls are a month ago

* the red ones are disqualified by the DNC (ABC/WaPo) or have already released polls less than a month ago

* the brown ones are unlikely to release a new poll in the coming days, or at least it hasn't been announced that they will

[Tender Branson]

Did Gillibrand pass the Donor threshold? I know the campaign said they were close

Not yet, but she is probably very close. Anywhere between 60K and 65K.

When is the deadline? And are any other candidates close to making it?

The deadline is Wednesday night.

So, just 3 days left for Bullock, Moulton, Gravel and Messam to get their 3 polls or the donation level.

As of right now, I don't see any new qualifying polls coming out until Wednesday - but maybe I'm wrong and Quinnipiac, Monmouth or FOX etc. will release something.

The DNC will then announce the qualified candidates on Thursday and draw lots on Friday in New York City to place candidates into each 10-tier debate.

[Tender Branson]

Quinnipiac and Monmouth ?

Told you so:

Here is a look at the final polls that might come out (and they have to come out over the next 5 days (Saturday-Wednesday) in order to be used for the June debate qualification. On Thursday, the DNC will already decide which candidates have qualified and who are going to miss the first debate):

A) polls that are used as criteria: Associated Press, ABC News, CBS News, CNN (national), The Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa Poll, Fox News, the Las Vegas Review-Journal, Monmouth University, NBC News, The New York Times, National Public Radio/Marist, Quinnipiac University, Reuters, the University of New Hampshire, USA Today, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and Winthrop University.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/2020_democratic_presidential_nomination-6730.html

B) the outlook:

* The new Des Moines Register/CNN Iowa Poll will be released today

* NPR/Marist might release a new one (they did yesterday, on abortion etc.)

* FOX, Monmouth and Quinnipiac might, because their last polls are a month ago

* the red ones are disqualified by the DNC (ABC/WaPo) or have already released polls less than a month ago

* the brown ones are unlikely to release a new poll in the coming days, or at least it hasn't been announced that they will

[Tender Branson]

Too bad Bullock is not in ...

But I agree with this

https://www.twitter.com/GovernorBullock/status/1138853852369838081

Even better would have been the 3x8 debate format ...

[Tender Branson]

They should have released this stuff last weekend ...

[Tender Branson]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GovernorBullock/status/1140990927336423424

Qualified in terms of having 3 polls, but it’s not certain that he also has a debate slot ...