Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

The Europride was held in Vienna and 500.000 people attended.

President Van der Bellen was the 1st European President to address the crowd (or so it was said):

https://twitter.com/vanderbellen/status/1139986414060412935

https://twitter.com/LGTBNews/status/1140225715713040384

[Tender Branson]

The public ORF broadcaster has decided to allow the Greens to take part in the upcoming TV debates for the election, despite the fact that they are not in parliament right now:

https://www.krone.at/1943399

The FPÖ is not amused.

[Tender Branson]

"EU-No !", which failed to get onto the ballot for the EU elections, will try again in September for the federal election under the name "ÖXIT: Platform for Homeland, Environment, Neutrality and Direct Democracy."

It will be relatively easy this time to get on the ballot, because unlike in the EU election where you needed 2.600 signatures Austria-wide, you can also contest the election in single states as well, with signatures ranging from 100-500 in each state. They got some 2.400 for the EU election.

https://orf.at/#/stories/3127242

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+Greens decided today that the Vorarlberg state election will be held on Oct. 13:

https://derstandard.at/2000105066301/Vorarlberg-Wahl-fix-am-13-Oktober

[Tender Branson]

H.C. Strache already planning his comeback:

* There has been a deal between the FPÖ and the Straches, which both sides accepted

* H.C. Strache will not take his EU seat and stay mostly "quiet" for the next year

* Instead, he got a consulting job for the FPÖ, worth 10.000€ per month

* His wife Philippa will run for parliament this fall, worth 9.000€ per month

* This will compensate for the 20.000€ per month H.C. earned as Vice-Chancellor

* If the state prosecution does not charge Strache with anything, Strache will return as FPÖ-lead candidate for the important 2020 Vienna state election (but only assuming the state prosecution announces so several months before the state election). Otherwise, Dominik Nepp will become lead candidate.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/heinz-christian-strache-plant-sein-comeback-in-oesterreich-a-1272827.html

[Tender Branson]

New SORA/Integral poll for the public ORF broadcaster:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1141332946433036288
For the first time since 2002, a majority for ÖVP+Greens.

Also, a new high for the Greens. Not an all-time high, but certainly for the past few years.

[Tender Branson]

I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.

[Tender Branson]

APA/OGM's new "trust index" of major politicians shows that for the first time, Kurz is no longer the most trusted politician in the country.

His numbers have gone down by a lot and he was overtaken by interim Chancellor Bierlein and President VdB:



The chart shows the balance of "I have trust" minus "I have no trust" in this politician.

Werner Kogler and Beate Meinl-Reisinger have decent numbers for leaders of small opposition parties, Pamela Rendi-Wagner not so much and Peter Pilz is down and out.

Interesting also that Norbert Hofer has gone from roughly balanced to a strong negative saldo after taking over the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

After 2 weeks into her job, Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein has attended her first EU summit yesterday:



Source: BKA/Andy Wenzel (free)

[Tender Branson]

I think that turnout could hit 81-85% this time.

Why ?

Because until now, early elections always had higher turnout than the election before ...

1970: 91.8%
1971: 92.4%

1994: 81.9%
1995: 86.0%

1999: 80.4%
2002: 84.3%

2006: 78.5%
2008: 78.8%

2013: 74.9%
2017: 80.0%
2019: ?

I think this year is very similar to the 1999 -> 2002 situation.

Also, the fact that the Greens could enter parliament again and increased enthusiasm among the young crowd due to the climate change strikes are speaking in favour of higher turnout this time.

[Tender Branson]

I mean, he's a traitor to Austria. That's worth a death penalty (if that wasn't already abolished yet).

The only European country which still has the death penalty is Belarus.

And Austria is among the least likely countries to bring it back.

Yes, support is only 10%.

[Tender Branson]

Will Bierlein return to the court after the election or is this the "crown" of her career in public service?

Bierlein would have retired as Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court anyway in July after their final session for the year, because there's an age limit of 70.

She turns 70 on Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

https://www.twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1142408320382316544

[Tender Branson]

While the other parties are preparing their election campaigns, the SPÖ is ironing in Burgenland:

https://www.twitter.com/blau_gelb_dani/status/1142319827769602049

[Tender Branson]

What would an OVP/Green coalition government be like from the point of view of policy? How much would change with the FPO being replaced by the Greens as the junior partner?

A couple things:

* First, an ÖVP-Green coalition might not happen for 2 reasons: because it's not possible electorally (something like 35% ÖVP, 11% Greens) or 49%-49% for the government and opposition blocks but you need a few additional surplus seats for a stable government - or because the main actors are opposed to such a coalition. On the other hand, an ÖVP-Green government would make the most sense (together with NEOS, if they are needed) because it would be the most centrist, the most non-controversial and stable coalition with no headwinds from Europe.

* Second, not trying such a coalition would be incredibly stupid on the part of Kurz and the ÖVP. Why ? If Kurz would opt for the FPÖ again, they get a stronger coalition partner with more demands and controversial people again. Plus, Europe would cry out again. With the Greens entering parliament again and probably finishing around 10-14%, the chances of big demands are lower than with the FPÖ as coalition partner. Especially on the topic of migration, asylum and security. The FPÖ would claim it is "their" topics again, where they want to be in charge. The Greens on the other hand have learned their part over the last years and largely shut up on the topic of immigration and focused on environment and social topics instead. By entering parliament again and then shouting aloud again: "WE WANT MORE IMMIGRANTS IN AUSTRIA !" they would risk being kicked out of parliament again, or being demonized again by the public and other parties. The Greens will therefore make moves towards the center and the ÖVP will also move to the center during such coalition talks.

* Third, if the people involved in the talks are willing to create such a government it should be easier than in the past, especially after the disaster talks between ÖVP-Greens in 2002 - then led by Schüssel and Van der Bellen. Van der Bellen is now President and will certainly look for a better ending this time for his Greens. He will act as mediator and will be a huge factor in creating such a government. Besides, all the ÖVP-Greens governments in the states (such as in Vorarlberg, Tyrol, Salzburg, Upper Austria) were all successful and were re-elected. If the Greens can get their Vienna-group in line and the ÖVP their farmers and business wings, then a coalition could be coming by Christmas. I think they will find some compromises on the economy, debt, taxes and especially the environment.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:



Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SPÖ could lose almost all their strongholds to the ÖVP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:



Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SPÖ-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the ÖVP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the map of winners by district in the EU election:



Considering a 5.5% swing based on current polls, the SPÖ could lose almost all their strongholds to the ÖVP in September, which would be a catastrophe for them:



Only Vienna as a whole, Linz, Steyr and Villach + suburbs could remain as SPÖ-wins.

They could lose all their former industrial, working-class districts in Styria (mining, steel) to the ÖVP and could not win a single (!) district in Burgenland.

To be fair, polls are predicting what, 38-23 for the ÖVP?

If the results was reversed, you would see the opposite, a completely red map with a handful of pockets of cyan.

Not really, there would be more rural ÖVP areas in such a case than urban SPÖ areas in the upcoming case, as the rural areas seem to still be more loyal to the ÖVP in such wave elections.

[Tender Branson]

How is the SPO-FPO government in Burgenland seen these days by the public and the party cadre?

There will be state elections in January next year. They were called a few months earlier than normal (May), but that is usually not uncommon. But with Ibiza, it is more likely now that the SPÖ dumps the FPÖ next year, despite the government being mostly OK (it’s not like the FPÖ has much to say there ...)

[Tender Branson]

Brand-new ATV/Hajek/POS poll (n=800 eligible voters aged 16+, June 24-28, MoE = +/- 3.5%):

38% ÖVP (+6.5)
20% FPÖ (-6.0)
20% SPÖ (-6.9)
11% Greens (+7.2)
  9% NEOS (+3.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  1% Others (-1.1)

Link

[Tender Branson]

Also from the new ATV poll:

The 10 most important issues in the coming election campaign.

31% climate change, environmental protection
24% immigration, integration, asylum
19% affordable housing
18% pensions
16% health care
16% old-age care
11% corruption
10% crime
  9% education, kindergarten, universities
  7% creation of new jobs

https://derstandard.at/2000105602103/43-Prozent-der-Oesterreicher-wollen-mehr-Geld-fuer-das-Bundesheer

That's pretty good for the Greens, because until now "immigration, integration, asylum" has always topped the list of most important issues by a big margin.

But considering June has set new heat records all over Europe and also here in Austria (June was 6°C hotter (!) than the average June of the past 30 years), the Greens can only benefit from the changing climate ...

[Tender Branson]

Looks like Green phenomena has swept to Austria as well. Obviously they take most votes from the SPÖ.

If Kurz wins the election, I hope he forms a coalition with the NEOS to establish a centrist, pro-EU government.

ÖVP-NEOS will likely not be possible ... but ÖVP-Greens could be.

[Tender Branson]

The coming week will see a final rush of policy proposals being brought before parliament, now that there’s room for fluid majorities due to the ÖVP-FPÖ government collapse.

We could see several important topics being passed, ranging from higher pensions to strengthening bi-national LGBT marriages, banning glyphosate, the re-introduction of a public smoking ban, raising old-age care money, a plastic packaging ban, increasing the time for paternal leave or a return of the 20.000+ job offensive from the SPÖ that the government killed. Most of the initiatives will likely be passed by varying majorities by different parties.

Parliament will then enter summer recess and return to work in September, slightly ahead of the election.

https://www.vn.at/titelblatt/2019/06/28/plastiktasche-wird-geschichte.vn

[Tender Branson]

Kurz wants to make Austria Hydrogen-country #1:

The ÖVP will present their climate plans tomorrow, which include 500 million € in support for companies who settle in Austria to develop hydrogen cars or better hydrogen power units.

A major hydrogen business cluster should be established in the country, where companies can share their know-how on the topic and the hydrogen grid to re-fill the cars should be significantly expanded.


Source: Wikipedia

On the other hand, the ÖVP also wants to promote e-cars and to make Austria 100% carbon-neutral by 2045.

The ÖVP is against any additional taxes though to burden the middle-class, or further bans.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5652197/OeVP-setzt-fuer-das-Klima-auf-Wasserstoff

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is attacking 6-year old Linda who gave a letter to Kurz recently, in which she wrote that she's disappointed how "people have taken on Kurz".

The 6-year old girl calls herself "a devoted fan of Kurz since age 4 already" and says "she's unhappy that she cannot vote yet, but wishes him all the best for the coming election".

The SPÖ calls bullsh*t and says the letter and video is staged and that Kurz instrumentalizes small children for his political campaign ...



Source: Kurz's Instagram page

This is all pretty funny, because the SPÖ had small kids on 2 of their EU campaign posters.

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Spott-nach-Fanpost-von-Maedchen--6--an-Kurz-48780382

[Tender Branson]

The party "NOW" is falling apart:

Today, 5 of their original 8 (and currently 7) MPs announced that they will either not run again for parliament in the September election or run for the Greens. At least one, Alma Zadic, has said that she will try to get a spot on the federal Green list (which the Greens confirmed). That's not a sure thing yet, because the Greens have an internal IRV primary system for their lists. The other 4 have just said they will not run again, or will return to their previous jobs.

That means only party founder Peter Pilz and Daniela Holzinger are left to run in the coming election, because the 6th (Martha Bissmann) was kicked out of the party last year. It's likely that Holzinger and party leader Maria Stern also leave the party and Pilz is left on his own ...

Anyway, Pilz said that they will still run in the election and will present a new list with different people by the end of July ...

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5653299/Fuenf-von-sieben-Abgeordneten-treten-nicht-mehr-fuer-Jetzt-an