Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Former FPÖ Interior Minister Herbert Kickl's cousin, Daniela Kickl, has decided to run for the Greens in the coming election.

Daniela Kickl has long been heavily critical against Herbert and was present at many demonstrations against him.

She will run on the Greens Vienna list and would probably need to be ranked in the top-5 there to make it into the Austrian parliament, assuming the Greens win some 20 seats in September.

https://derstandard.at/2000104608157/Herbert-Kickls-Cousine-Daniela-will-fuer-die-Gruenen-antreten

[Tender Branson]

This week will clarify things about the coming election ...

Today is a public holiday here, but already tomorrow the relevant multipartisan committee in parliament will debate the election date and with the votes of SPÖ+FPÖ, September 29 will almost definitely be announced as election date.

On Wednesday and Thursday, parliament will have regular sessions. The interim Bierlein government will present itself, parliament will vote to dissolve and agree on the election date, several initiatives will be voted on that were agreed by ÖVP+FPÖ in the past and other topics such as rolling back the smoking ban.

If the election date is set for 29.09.2019, small parties (like the Greens) can start collecting the necessary 2.600 signatures to be on the ballot, beginning on July 9 and hand in the signatures by August 2.

ÖVP, SPÖ and FPÖ have already agreed on their frontrunners (Kurz, Rendi-Wagner and Hofer) and while NEOS will have internal primaries again, it is pretty sure that Meinl-Reisinger will be their lead candidate again.

That leaves the Greens and NOW without lead candidates. The Greens could have a double-ticket, like the German Greens, and might co-operate with NOW.

https://orf.at/stories/3126165

[Tender Branson]

Kurz+ÖVP will already launch a poster campaign this week and some say it looks like Leni Riefenstahl made it:



Source: free ÖVP poster.

"SPÖ+FPÖ have forced new elections. The people will decide. Our way forward has just begun."

[Tender Branson]

Funny:

The FPÖ is still using Strache‘s Facebook page with almost 1 million followers, as if nothing has happened ...

Just in the last few days they posted pictures of Strache, baby and wife on Fathers Day + attack ads against the ÖVP + how Kurz wants to create a „chaos coalition“ with the Greens and NEOS etc. etc.

The website has 9 admins, so they must still be in contact with Strache if they regularly post new pictures from him.

[Tender Branson]

Rot-Blau would be SPÖ-FPÖ.

ÖVP is cyan.

Which is nuts, because it was the FPÖ/Strache who first acted to blow up the coalition and then Kurz himself who did it.

But Kurz is doing a good job at framing it in a way that SPÖ and FPÖ are responsible.

[Tender Branson]

The election date has been set for September 29, with the votes of SPÖ and FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Ewa Dziedzic, Green member of the Bundesrat and who has been mentioned as part of a Doppelspitze in the coming election, has married (despite her family back in Poland being archconservative PiS voters):

 https://www.twitter.com/dziedzic_ewa/status/1138042510067023872

[Tender Branson]

In the 1st day of parliament this week, the election date was confirmed.

https://www.thelocal.at/20190612/austria-set-for-early-elections-on-september-29

Also, with the votes of SPÖ+FPÖ+NOW+NEOS, the KAICIID (King Abdullah Center in Vienna) will be closed down. The ÖVP voted against.

https://derstandard.at/2000104769750/Aussenministerium-will-NR-Beschluss-zu-Abdullah-Zentrum-umsetzen

Also with the votes of SPÖ+FPÖ+NOW, the biocide Glyphosat was banned in Austria (while the EU has not done so and extended the use at least until 2022). Glyphosat is cancerous, kills off bees and other important insects and leads to abnormalities among newborns (see Argentina).

https://www.politico.eu/article/austria-moves-to-ban-glyphosate-this-year/

https://derstandard.at/2000104746897/Glyphosat-Mehrheit-im-Nationalrat-fuer-Verbot-in-Oesterreich

[Tender Branson]

Austria to shut Saudi-backed centre

VIENNA (Reuters) – Austria’s government said on Wednesday it plans to shut a Saudi-funded centre for religious dialogue in Vienna after parliament urged it to try to prevent the possible execution of a teenager in Saudi Arabia over acts committed when he was a minor.

The King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz International Centre for Interreligious and Intercultural Dialogue (KAICIID), which was opened in 2012, has long been a lightning rod in Austria for criticism of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record.

Austria’s parliament backed a motion calling on Vienna to quit the treaty on which KAICIID is based and to revoke an agreement that bases it in the Austrian capital.

The motion also called on Austria’s provisional government and the Foreign Ministry to “use all political and diplomatic means available” to prevent the execution of Murtaja Qureiris, an 18-year-old who rights groups say is on trial, accused of offences related to taking part in anti-government protests.

KAICIID and the Saudi embassy in Vienna were not immediately available for comment.

“This is a signal for human rights in Saudi Arabia, which hopefully will be copied by many, not just in Europe,” lawmaker Peter Pilz, author of the motion, said on Twitter.

https://www.euronews.com/2019/06/12/austria-to-shut-saudi-backed-religious-dialogue-centre-in-rights-protest

[Tender Branson]

The BZÖ wants to try again a last time and run in the coming election, after not doing so in 2017:

https://derstandard.at/2000104731795/Das-BZOe-will-zur-Nationalratswahl-wiederauferstehen

LOL.

[Tender Branson]

What's the reasoning for the FPÖ to ban Glyphosat? This is nothing you would especially expect a right-wing populist party to do. Fighting the EU?

I bolded the important part of what you wrote.

There's a big wing within the FPÖ who has no problems accepting climate change as a fact and the FPÖ also usually is a pro-environmental party. Even more so with Hofer now than with Strache.

The biggest roadblock in the way to banning glyphosate was always the business- and farmer-friendly ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

Latest development:

The FPÖ is apparently trying to pressure H.C. Strache to not take his EU parliament seat.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/druck-auf-strache-zu-verzichten-dafuer-soll-philippa-ins-parlament/400523107

Instead, the FPÖ wants him to become a stay-at-home dad for his newborn son, while his wife Philippa will run on the Vienna FPÖ-list in the coming election so that she can enter parliament and be the breadwinner in the Strache household.

[Tender Branson]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

I'm currently undecided between ÖVP, SPÖ, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.

[Tender Branson]

I'm currently undecided between ÖVP, SPÖ, Greens and NEOS - but I have a tendency for the Greens.

When another 2015 happens, you're to blame.

I can oppose mass immigration and vote Green at the same time (especially, since they have learned from their mistakes of the past and shut up about importing people from Africa and the Middle-East right now and focus on what matters and what the party was founded on: environmentalism).

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-Greens-NEOS is the most likely option right now. I think the Greens will come around and enter the coalition if offered the choice to govern and if Kurz sends more moderate signals on certain topics.

ÖVP-FPÖ 3.0 is also quite likely.

Even ÖVP-SPÖ could be likely, but probably only if the SPÖ gets soundly defeated and Rendi-Wagner is replaced with someone else.

---

Also: The Greens will announce their lead candidate(s) today. Signs are pointing towards party leader Werner Kogler, who has led the Greens to a surprisingly high 14%+ in the EU elections and who gets extremely good support from the Green base because of it. It is likely that if Kogler runs, there will be a German-style Doppelspitze with a woman as his backup.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Gruene-geben-Spitzenkandidaten-bekannt/384453595

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, do you think a new OVP FPO coalition is fairly possible soon?  I thought with all the bad blood developing over the Strache affair, plus FPO actually voting to unseat Kurz etc that that would not be very likely at all in the near future at any rate.

They could find ways to get back together again, but I assume only if Kickl does not become Interior Minister again.

[Tender Branson]

The Greens will announce their lead candidate(s) today. Signs are pointing towards party leader Werner Kogler, who has led the Greens to a surprisingly high 14%+ in the EU elections and who gets extremely good support from the Green base because of it. It is likely that if Kogler runs, there will be a German-style Doppelspitze with a woman as his backup.

Green-leader Werner Kogler has decided not to take his seat in the EU parliament and become frontrunner for the September election instead.

https://orf.at/stories/3126769

Good choice.

Kogler is a folksy guy and a good debater.

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna-FPÖ just voted to grant Philippa Strache the 3rd spot on their election list for September, guaranteeing her entry into the Austrian parliament (assuming she accepts the deal and H.C. Strache refuses to take his EU parliament seat):


Credit: Austrian Press Agency, open domain.

If elected, Philippa Strache will become the animal rights spokesperson for the FPÖ in parliament because their old MP will retire. Philippa is also a former SPÖ-voter and parliamentary aide for the SPÖ, before H.C. turned her blue.

https://derstandard.at/2000104891170/Philippa-StracheJetzt-steigt-Frau-Strache-in-die-politische-Arena

https://derstandard.at/2000104897130/FPOe-Wien-macht-Philippa-Strache-zum-Fixstarter-fuer-Nationalrat

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-Kickl says that the party will end up with 20%+ in the election and could even end up close to the 26% they got in 2017 if the election campaign goes well for them ("Norbert Hofer leading the party into the election is the best thing that could happen.")

He also said that this time he won't be the FPÖ's campaign manager and therefore not responsible for their campaign posters and that ÖVP-FPÖ could be possible again. He said that Kurz personally wanted to continue the previous government, but was pressured into kicking Kickl out of government by the so-called "old, black ÖVP types" (meaning their Governors in the states).

https://orf.at/stories/3126958

[Tender Branson]

Now, this is a way to combat the spread of the worst brand of Islamism.

A very good way, yes. Now of course, take careful note which party repeatedly votes for symbolic things that don't actually change anything (bans on burqas or headscarfs in primary schools, for instance), but - as the only parliamentary party - voted against this.

Who are you going to support?

Greens, no question. For all the flaws the only left-wing party in this country that has both chances of entering parliament (so excluding KPÖ), that's not a personal vanity project (so excluding Pilz/Jetzt) and that (so excluding SPÖ) is not implicit in the system of instiutionalised patronage and corruption under the name of Proporz that has plagued this country for ever. I have nothing positive to say to any party to the right of those.

And that doesn't bother you a OVP-Green-NEOS coalition?

I can't see that happening - why would the Greens enter such a formation? They have just painfully re-gained those voters that left them for the SPÖ in 2017, the best way to lose them once and for all is to go into government with Kurz. They have nothing to gain and absolutely much to lose from that. ÖVP-Greens cooperations are possible in pitch-black states where no government is possible without the ÖVP, but on the federal level? They're diametrically opposed on a great number of issues, it would make no sense.

You really don't see that coming seriously? The medias are playing this narrative

It doesn't make sense to me, no. Kogler himself called it extremely unlikely yesterday ("I lack the fantasy needed to imagine that"), which is not a surprise, given Kurz has spent the last two years acting completely contrary to the Green's interests.

https://www.tt.com/politik/innenpolitik/15756081/gruenen-chef-kogler-fuer-koalition-mit-kurz-fehlt-mir-die-fantasie

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

[Tender Branson]

Notice for Kalwejt, regarding the posting of pictures/copyright:

In the future, I will post pictures here from the APA (Austrian Press Agency) and from the Federal Chancellery, who grant their pictures to be posted on websites for political education purposes for free, if the source and name of the photographer are mentioned below the picture.

Punkt 3:

Soweit nicht ohnehin das Recht auf freie Werknutzung, insbesondere gemäß § 42 UrhG besteht, erteilt der Bund die

nicht übertragbare,
nicht ausschließliche,
zeitlich und räumlich unbeschränkte
Bewilligung das Bildmaterial des Fotoservice, an dem dem Bund die Rechte zustehen, kostenfrei

zu nicht kommerziellen Zwecken,
zu redaktionellen Zwecken von Medien und
zu Zwecken im Bereich der politischen Bildung
zu vervielfältigen, zu verbreiten, zu senden, öffentlich vorzuführen oder im Internet zur Verfügung zu stellen.

Eine darüber hinausgehende Nutzung, insbesondere für Werbezwecke, ist nicht zulässig.

Punkt 4:

Bei Veröffentlichung des Fotomaterials muss das abgebildete Sujet der Bildquelle und dem jeweiligen Fotografen zugeordnet werden können. Das gilt auch für Sammelbilder. Das Fotoservice des BKA ist als Bildquelle und mittels Schrägstrich nachgesetzt, der Name der Fotografin bzw. des Fotografen zu nennen. Beispiel: BKA/Andy Wenzel.

http://fotoservice.bundeskanzleramt.at/nutzungsbedingungen.html

For example:

[picture]

Source: BKA/Andy Wenzel

It also says so on the English-version of the Chancellery:

Copyright

Federal Chancellery of Austria 2019

Reproduction is authorised, provided the source is acknowledged, save where otherwise stated. Any restrictions on use shall be clearly indicated.

https://www.bundeskanzleramt.gv.at/en/copyright.html?lang=en

[Tender Branson]

Maybe.

But let's take a different approach:

What do you prefer after the election to happen really ?

* Another ÖVP-FPÖ coalition ?
* ÖVP-Greens-NEOS ?

For me there is only 1 choice here.

I prefer neither ÖVP nor FPÖ to be anywhere near any form of government ever; but this isn't about my preference, rather than about political reality. The fact is that the bridge between Kurz (at least in his present incarnation; if he again does a 180° and stick to that all summer things might look different) and the FPÖ are far smaller than the bridge between Kurz and the Greens. The stronger the Greens get, i.e. the closer they get to the SPÖ, the less incentive they have to enter this government - taking one look at Germany points to the advantages of being in opposition. The weaker the Greens get, i.e. the further away from the SPÖ, the less mathematically possible does ÖVP-Greens-NEOS become - Red-Blue can lose about five points between each other and still have a majority. Right now this doesn't look likely of course, but three months is a very long time. Ibiza could be forgotten in September, the SPÖ could get their sh**t together, the Greens could lose their momentum, the ÖVP's business with party finances could blow up...

In my opinion, at the present day, no formation is particularly likely, and in basically all cases this has to do with the person of Sebastian Kurz.

The SPÖ will not get their act together in 3 months and the FPÖ will still get punished a lot IMO. They will definitely lose more than 5% combined and more like 5% each, if not more.

I think an election result of 35-40% ÖVP, 20-24% SPÖ, 17-21% FPÖ, 8-14% Greens and 6-8% NEOS is almost set in stone right now. Which means SPÖ+FPÖ would never ever get a majority this time.

I also think that getting a new coalition could really take a while this time, like in Sweden.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, this is sickening:

[Tender Branson]

Wow, this is sickening:

why ?

it's just a pray... what is your problem with that ?

Just a pray ? Kurz and his cult-like followers are setting the guy up to be a modern Jesus or Messiah, who is out to clean Austria from all the evil.

A prayer session in a Mega-Church in Oklahoma feat. Ted Cruz could not top that and we are talking about Austria here, where state and religion is supposedly seperated ... !

The fact that Kurz is willing to tie himself to these ultra-Christian stuff is highly disturbing IMO.

[Tender Branson]

The Greens have announced that there will be no co-operation or fusion with NOW for the election.

https://www.sn.at/politik/innenpolitik/liste-jetzt-bedauert-nein-der-gruenen-zu-kooperation-71807263