Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Another new poll (OGM, for the "Kurier" and "Kleine Zeitung"):

[Tender Branson]

With all 12 expected new interim cabinet members now named by the media (not officially confirmed yet), it has quite an ÖVP-lean - followed by the SPÖ and FPÖ.

Also, 6 women and 6 men.

Small change: Ratz will not remain as Interior Minister after all.

According to the "Krone", the cabinet will be sworn into office tomorrow at 11am by VdB.

ÖVP-affiliated or appointed to their previous posts under ÖVP-leadership:

* Chancellor: Brigitte Bierlein
* Foreign & EU Minister: Alexander Schallenberg
* Interior Minister: Wolfgang Peschorn
* Finance Minister: Eduard Müller
* Education Minister: Iris Rauskala
* Economy Minister: Elisabeth Udolf-Strobl
* Agriculture & Environment Minister: Maria Patek

SPÖ-affiliated or appointed to their previous posts under SPÖ-leadership:

* Vice-Chancellor & Minister for Justice: Clemens Jabloner
* Social Minister: Brigitte Zarfl
* Defense Minister: Thomas Starlinger
* Women, Families & Youth Minister: Ines Stilling

FPÖ-affiliated or appointed to their previous posts under FPÖ-leadership:

* Transport & Infrastructure Minister: Andreas Reichhardt

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ now has a problem with the likely new Interior Minister Andreas Pilsl, calling him „an ÖVP-man from the old black power circles“.

https://orf.at/stories/3125393

That‘s the 2nd guy they are complaining about, after the current Kurz-appointed minister Eckart Ratz has rolled back several of former FPÖ-minister Kickl‘s policies ...

Looks like the swearing-in tomorrow could be postponed ...

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ now has a problem with the likely new Interior Minister Andreas Pilsl, calling him „an ÖVP-man from the old black power circles“.

https://orf.at/stories/3125393

That‘s the 2nd guy they are complaining about, after the current Kurz-appointed minister Eckart Ratz has rolled back several of former FPÖ-minister Kickl‘s policies ...

Looks like the swearing-in tomorrow could be postponed ...

So, Pilsl will not become Interior Minister ...

Wolfgang Peschorn will.

Cabinet now complete, according to the APA.

https://orf.at/stories/3125412

https://derstandard.at/2000104218071/Bierlein-Neue-Regierung-ist-komplett-Wolfgang-Peschorn-Innenminister

[Tender Branson]

Here is the complete new technocratic interim government of Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein, which President Alexander Van der Bellen will swear in tomorrow at 11am.

This is the first time in ca. 250 years that Austria will get a female leader (after Empress Maria Theresia).

For the first time, a cabinet will have gender parity (the previous record was 40% women in the government of Chancellor Gusenbauer).


Note: Tender, what the hell did you expect will happen when you post an image with a clear (C) note?

[Tender Branson]

Note: Tender, what the hell did you expect will happen when you post an image with a clear (C) note?

It's an infographic from the APA. Everyone posts these kinds of graphics. Stop acting like copyright-Nazis, please.

[Tender Branson]

Yeah, yeah ... will do that in the future (even if highly annoying).

Anyway, the Cabinet Brigitte Bierlein I was sworn in today and here are pictures of it:

Link (APA)

Link (Office of the President)

Chancellor Bierlein delivering her declaration of government:



Source: APA/Fohringer

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Bierlein is in office for just a few hours now, but the sexism has already started:

If you type in her name in Google, what does appear ?

* Bierlein face
* Bierlein botox
* Bierlein lifting
* Bierlein surgery
* Bierlein wig

She's not the youngest anymore for sure, but that's disgusting ...

[Tender Branson]

Just watched the swearing-in ceremony and her first speech of government and here are some important things:

* Van der Bellen said: "No doubt about it, I'm very happy that today, the first female Chancellor takes office and that half of the cabinet are women. In the future, nobody can say anymore IT IS NOT POSSIBLE, because it is possible."

* Bierlein also mentioned the young women of Austria to get active and not hide their ideas they have in the economy etc. and take part in politics and she said she wants a tolerant, open Austria in the EU and worldwide. She also said "This government will serve you, the people, as best as possible."

* The first cabinet council meeting will be on Wednesday and it will likely be about the election date and mediation between what date the different parties want.

* The next meeting of parliament will be on June 12, so that the new cabinet can introduce themselves to MPs by delivering speeches. It is likely that the election date can be passed then as well.

https://orf.at/stories/3125543

[Tender Branson]

Today, a meeting of major party officials took place to discuss the election date (LOL, not even on this topic they can agree).

It's becoming clearer and clearer that the federal election will take place on September 29. This is the date that SPÖ+FPÖ want and they have a majority in parliament. The ÖVP wants to vote as early as September 1, but this is still holiday season.

I think that SPÖ+FPÖ will pass this date next week in parliament.

Which means that the regular 5-year Vorarlberg state election will be held a week earlier, on September 22, because Governor Markus Wallner doesn't want to vote together with the federal election.

https://derstandard.at/2000104333839/SPOe-und-FPOe-beharren-laut-OeVP-auf-dem-29-September

[Tender Branson]

What just happened ?

?

[Tender Branson]

What just happened ?

?

I was referring to what did Strache & Kurz do to get tossed from office ?

Well ... there are now 12 pages about it.

Please start reading here.

Or here.

[Tender Branson]

The latest gimmick is that the federal election will likely be held on September 29 and the regular Vorarlberg state election on October 13, giving them more time for their own campaign instead of being drowned out by the federal election campaign.

On the other hand, both elections on the same date would have been better because it would increase turnout.

Also, the first cabinet council meeting of the interim Bierlein government took place today, but nothing big was discussed, just the latest labour market data and that Sri Lanka was declared a non-safe country for asylum seekers in Austria up for deportation, as Sri Lanka re-introduced the death penalty.

The bigger discussion right now is about police brutality, after videos emerged where some police officers beat down climate protesters recently.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ leader Norbert Hofer says he will campaign heavily on measures to combat climate change over the next months and turn the FPÖ green:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/norbert-hofer-will-die-blauen-gruen-machen/400515406

[Tender Branson]

Marine Le Pen was probably not the first, because Hofer already said in 2016 during the Presidential election that he, unlike Strache, does believe in man-made climate change and he also highlighted how he has solar panels on the roof of his home and is a small "organic farmer" at home, growing his own vegetables etc.

[Tender Branson]

New Ö24 poll (May 31-June 4):

38% ÖVP (+6.5)
23% SPÖ (-4.0)
17% FPÖ (-9.0)
  9% Greens (+5.2)
  9% NEOS (+3.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  3% Others (+1.0)

Chancellor:

46% Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP)
19% Pamela Rendi-Wagner (SPÖ)
19% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

Should Kurz become Chancellor again after the election ?

59% Yes
41% No

Which coalition do you prefer after the election ?

26% ÖVP-Greens-NEOS
21% ÖVP-FPÖ
19% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
  8% ÖVP-SPÖ
  6% SPÖ-FPÖ

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Beben-59-wollen-Kurz-als-Kanzler/383337152

[Tender Branson]

Is there enough time for Strache to found a new party (or rename an existing one) and contest the election? I'm thinking of a scenario where he gets kicked out of FPO and then he founds a new party.

Frankly I don't see why he would. His political career is over anyway, and I don't think he has any reason to try to get revenge on the FPO.

Correct.

And besides, Strache and the FPÖ are still on family-oriented terms. Strache just yesterday or so said that the FPÖ is a "big family" and that he fully supports the current leadership under Hofer, Vilimsky, Haimbuchner and Kickl.

Obviously, some within the party want him to get out for good, but others still remember that the party would not be where it is right now without Strache's leadership over the years and as a result has a solid base of at least 15-20% support. Remember that Strache started with 3% in 2005 and got the party back to 26% and even now, despite the scandal, it still polls around 18-20% ...

[Tender Branson]

New Unique Research poll for "Profil" magazine (May 31-June 5):

37% ÖVP (+5.5)
21% FPÖ (-5.0)
20% SPÖ (-7.0)
10% Greens (+6.2)
10% NEOS (+4.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  1% Others (-1.0)

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-oevp-kurz-nationalratswahlen-10813406

[Tender Branson]

Besides Sebastian Kurz (who is still quite popular), President Alexander Van der Bellen has seen a huge jump in his approval rating for handling the government crisis well and the new interim Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein also starts with high approval ratings according to the new "Profil" poll:

Alexander Van der Bellen: 79% approve, (was at ca. 50-40 before the crisis)

(ÖVP-voters: 89%, FPÖ: 58%, SPÖ: 91%)

Brigitte Bierlein: 55-10 approve (31% don't really know her yet)

(ÖVP-voters: 60%, FPÖ: 36%, SPÖ: 72%)

[Tender Branson]

Alexander Van der Bellen: 79% approve, (was at ca. 50-40 before the crisis)

Why is there such a visible difference?

Everyone acknowledges that VdB did a good job during the government crisis, even FPÖ voters, who were heavily critical of him since 2016.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP has announced they will vote with the SPÖ and others in parliament during the next months to kill the controversial pro-smoking law that they passed together with the FPÖ:

https://orf.at/stories/3125874

The ÖVP was never really comfortable with that law, but passed it because of compromises with the FPÖ in their coalition contract.

[Tender Branson]

The new Interior Minister has clarified today that young people who had their asylum requests rejected, but who are in a current apprenticeship with a company, can still be deported.

The Greens, NEOS, SPÖ and parts of the ÖVP wanted to end this practice, because they think that many companies are in need of young asylum seekers without a criminal background.

But Interior Minister Peschorn said that "the law of the country is pretty clear: an apprenticeship or work does not protect someone from deportation if the asylum status is revoked and because the country of origin is safe again."

In other words: He has no other choice than to follow the law, unless the parties change it.

https://derstandard.at/2000104512177/Peschorn-will-auch-kuenftig-Lehrlinge-abschieben

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard" newspaper (June 5-6):

38% ÖVP (+6.5)
22% SPÖ (-5.0)
19% FPÖ (-7.0)
10% Greens (+6.2)
  9% NEOS (+3.7)
  1% NOW (-3.4)
  1% Others (-1.0)

https://derstandard.at/2000104553538/Umfrage-Nur-Kurz-schlaegt-Bierlein-in-der-Kanzlerfrage

[Tender Branson]

Turns out that there have been meetings between ÖVP-FPÖ in the last days and they have agreed to pass their already-worked-out tax reform/tax cut plans in parliament during the next few months + pension increases + plastic bag ban that they already agreed upon before their coalition broke apart.

Good to see that there is still some consensus left after the difficult last weeks. Previously, it was not clear what will happen to all the finalized proposals of ÖVP-FPÖ after their coalition ended.

https://derstandard.at/2000104554681/OeVP-und-FPOe-wollen-hoehere-Mindestpensionen-noch-gemeinsam-beschliessen

https://derstandard.at/2000104584355/Plastiksackerl-Verbot-kommt-nun-doch

[Tender Branson]

If they could also pass direct democracy legislation that would be great, but I'm guessing neither party is really that supportive of that.

Definitely not.

It takes a while to prepare legislation like this and even under their regular coalition it was only planned for 2022 ...