Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

President Alexander Van der Bellen has decided on a new Chancellor for the next 4-6 months.

https://orf.at/stories/3125115

All parties have accepted his choice and VdB will announce the name today at 3pm.

My guess would be Michael Linhart, a top diplomat or Gerhart Holzinger, the former Supreme Court Justice. On the other hand I hope VdB has the balls to present a female Chancellor.

[Tender Branson]

Most likely: 38% ÖVP, 24% SPÖ, 20% FPÖ, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Others.

Why would the ÖVP do better than in the EP election?

A) Kurz is on the ballot.

B) Greens and NEOS will not be as strong as in the EP election, which means +4% or so for Kurz.

[Tender Branson]

B) Greens and NEOS will not be as strong as in the EP election, which means +4% or so for Kurz.

I don't see how it means that. Wouldn't it benefit SPÖ and FPÖ just as much as ÖVP (FPÖ possibly more given that euroskeptical voters tend to turn out worse in EP elections)?

Mostly going by polls. The latest poll for the federal election already has the ÖVP at 38% and the Greens and NEOS not as strong.

[Tender Branson]

President Alexander Van der Bellen has decided on a new Chancellor for the next 4-6 months.

https://orf.at/stories/3125115

All parties have accepted his choice and VdB will announce the name today at 3pm.

My guess would be Michael Linhart, a top diplomat or Gerhart Holzinger, the former Supreme Court Justice. On the other hand I hope VdB has the balls to present a female Chancellor.

The "Presse" reports that the current Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court, Brigitte Bierlein, will become Chancellor.

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5636831/Praesidentin-des-Verfassungsgerichtshof-Brigitte-Bierlein-wird

[Tender Branson]

Brigitte Bierlein („beer-line“) officially appointed the 1st female Chancellor of Austria by President Van der Bellen.

She and the new technocrat cabinet will be sworn in on Monday.

[Tender Branson]

Clemens Jabloner (another judge, law professor and good friend of Bierlein) will become Vice-Chancellor and Minister for Justice, while Alexander Schallenberg - a top official in the Foreign Ministry - will become Foreign Minister.

[Tender Branson]

Van der Bellen apparently wanted to be the one who appoints the first woman Chancellor, while at the some time avoiding accusations of being not impartial by ultimately going for someome who's known for being somewhat  close to the ÖVP/FPÖ.

Correct.

Bierlein comes from a conservative background, but as Chief Justice of the Constitutional Court has also had quite moderate positions on gay marriage, asylum, welfare payments etc.

I think she’s OK for the next couple months, even though I was hoping for a younger female Chancellor, such as Christine Haberlander.

[Tender Branson]

September 29 looks like the date for the early election.

This is what both SPÖ and FPÖ want (the later, the better for them) and they have a majority in parliament.

The ÖVP (they want to vote as early as possible, on September 1/8/15) is furious, saying that SPÖ & FPÖ are already preparing a secret coalition.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/rot-blaue-mehrheit-fuer-29-september-als-wahltermin/400510150

[Tender Branson]

  An SPO FPO coalition.  That  would be intresting to see.  In this fantasy scenario of mine Hofer helps clean up the FPO image and brand, and the SPO comes close to the FPO in the asylum immigration side of things, and the FPO comes closer to the SPO on taxation, government spending etc. Burgenland goes national.

Not going to happen.

A) the SPÖ doesn't want it.

B) they will not have a majority this time.

[Tender Branson]

Most Austrians prefer a threesome after the election:

ATV/Unique Research poll about coalition preferences

25% ÖVP-Greens-NEOS
21% ÖVP-FPÖ
19% SPÖ-Greens-NEOS
  7% ÖVP-SPÖ
  5% SPÖ-FPÖ

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20190531_OTS0112/atv-frage-der-woche-ein-viertel-der-oesterreicherinnen-sieht-dreier-koalition-oevp-gruene-neos-in-der-kommenden-regierung

[Tender Branson]

Finland-born Iris Eliisa Rauskala will become the new Minister for Education:

https://derstandard.at/2000104156446/Praesidialsektionschefin-Iris-Rauskala-soll-Bildungsministerin-werden

[Tender Branson]

Which party is Iris Rauskala of?

Same question for the new chancellor. And what were their roles previously?

De-facto none.

But both are close to the ÖVP, so is the new Foreign Minister Schallenberg.

Jabloner is closer to the SPÖ.

For their previous roles, see above. Rauskala is a top official in the Education Ministry.

[Tender Branson]

The technocrat cabinet of Chancellor Brigitte Bierlein will be smaller than the original ÖVP-FPÖ government, probably just 12 members instead of 16.

4 are already named, 8 or so to go.

The posts of Strache and Blümel and the 2 state secretaries will not be re-staffed, but merged with other ministries for the next months.

The coming 4 months also offer a rare window of Swiss-style multipartisanship, where such things as tougher campaign finance laws and oversight could be passed.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/bierleins-beamtenregierung-soll-parteispenden-neu-regeln/400511215

[Tender Branson]

New Demox Research poll published in the „Presse“ (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% ÖVP
22-23% SPÖ
18-19% FPÖ
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 26% FPÖ, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

[Tender Branson]

New Demox Research poll published in the „Presse“ (n=1.000, conducted in the past few days):

37-38% ÖVP
22-23% SPÖ
18-19% FPÖ
10-11% NEOS
    8-9% Greens
    1-3% Others

2017 result: 31.5% ÖVP, 27% SPÖ, 26% FPÖ, 5% NEOS, 4% Greens, 6.5% Others

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637522/Warten-auf-das-Kabinett-Bierlein

If those were the election results we could see an OVP/NEOS coalition and the FPO could be discarded. It would be like an Austrian version of a standard issue CDU/FDP coalition. Someone enlighten me as to whether ist fair to describe NEOS as basically an Austrian version of the FDP

I don’t think these are the eventual election results, because I think that the roles of NEOS and Greens will be reversed in the end.

The Greens are benefitting from the current climate change movement of Greta Thunberg (she was in Vienna yesterday for her strike), while there are some who are flirting with NEOS in the polls right now, but who will end up voting ÖVP in the voting booth.

[Tender Branson]

A new Research Affairs poll for Ö24 confirms the DEMOX poll above, with the FPÖ and SPÖ crashing and burning:



2/3 people think the sacking of Kurz by SPÖ-FPÖ was wrong and more than 70% say it hurt our reputation abroad.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Wen-waehlen-Sie-Umfrage-Rekord-fuer-Kurz/382648855

[Tender Branson]

Kurz = Jesus

https://twitter.com/v_schwarz/status/1134562746257813504

[Tender Branson]

Some say Jesus, others say ...

[Tender Branson]

Elisabeth Udolf to become new Minister for the Economy:

So far, there's gender parity in the new cabinet: 3 women and 3 men.

[Tender Branson]

Additional names have been more or less confirmed today:

* Social Minister: Brigitte Zarfl (SPÖ-affiliated)
* Women, Families & Youth Minister: Ines Stilling (SPÖ-affiliated)
* Finance Minister: Eduard Müller (ÖVP-affiliated)
* Transport & Infrastructure Minister: Hartwig Hufnagl (FPÖ-affiliated)

Eckart Ratz (ÖVP-affiliated and appointed by Kurz himself) is likely to remain as Interior Minister.

That means only a Defense- and Agriculture Minister are left to choose.

https://derstandard.at/2000104181458/Drei-neue-Namen-fuer-Bierleins-Kabinett-kolportiert

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5637704/Neue-Namen-der-BierleinRegierung

[Tender Branson]

Are the Austrian Greens as far to the left as the German Greens?

There is no big difference I would say.

[Tender Branson]

If there is no OVP-NEOS majority what is the most likely coalition? Any chance NOW run together with the Greens?

If ÖVP-NEOS or ÖVP-Greens is not possible (and this will likely be the case), ÖVP-Greens-NEOS will happen.

The 3 parties are already signalling their intention for a common government, without openly saying so.

And yeah, the Greens might integrate some of NOW's members on their election list, without actually merging ahead of the election. Peter Pilz himself will certainly not be part of the Green list. Too deep are the personal frictions between him and his former party and the Greens certainly do not want a disturbing force like him ahead of the election.

[Tender Branson]

New "Profil" magazine poll:

"Do you want Strache to make a comeback in politics after some time ?"

68% No
22% Yes

FPÖ-voters:

67% Yes
28% No

https://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-polit-comeback-strache-ibiza-10809714

[Tender Branson]

Another new poll today (Unique Research for the "Krone"), same story:

ÖVP gaining, Greens gaining, NEOS gaining. SPÖ losing a lot, FPÖ losing a lot. NOW losing a lot.

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1134824882682966021

[Tender Branson]

If there is no OVP-NEOS majority what is the most likely coalition? Any chance NOW run together with the Greens?

If ÖVP-NEOS or ÖVP-Greens is not possible (and this will likely be the case), ÖVP-Greens-NEOS will happen.

The 3 parties are already signalling their intention for a common government, without openly saying so.

And yeah, the Greens might integrate some of NOW's members on their election list, without actually merging ahead of the election. Peter Pilz himself will certainly not be part of the Green list. Too deep are the personal frictions between him and his former party and the Greens certainly do not want a disturbing force like him ahead of the election.

What would a government like that even look like, policy-wise? OVP and Greens don't really share anything meaningful in common, do they? And even NEOS would tightly restrict Kurz's move of the OVP to the right.

We will see a much different Kurz after the election: Once he has won the election with ca. 35-40% and NEOS/Greens with about 8% each, he will say "Immigration is not the main issue any longer and the policies I implemented with the FPÖ over the past 2 years have been enough to decrease new asylum requests to a much lower level and we can focus on the future now under a strengthened and dominating ÖVP".

And such a coalition would probably be quite popular too (see Salzburg here), because voters don't see it as polarizing as ÖVP-FPÖ.

In other words: Kurz will move so much to the center before and after the election to court the NEOS and Greens that they will most likely say yes to such a coalition. Kurz's conservative policies were only possible with a willing FPÖ. Under the new government, the focus will shift away from immigration and more to the economy, education, transparency and of course ecological issues such as climate protection.