Austrian Elections & Politics 5.0 (Burgenland state election - January 26)

[Tender Branson]

Does a lawyer from Vienna and a detective from Munich have something to do with the Ibiza trap ?

https://www.bild.de/politik/ausland/politik-ausland/oesterreich-heisse-spur-im-ibiza-beben-war-es-dieser-anwalt-62095558.bild.html

The picture is getting clearer:

The lawyer from Vienna (in fact, the lawyer of the lawyer) said yesterday that it was "participation in a project in the interest of civil society", basically confirming that his client played a role in setting up the trap and the videos on Ibiza.

The suspected lawyer and the detective already tried to hand over material to the SPÖ about Strache ahead of the 2017 election, but the SPÖ guy refused the offer.

They probably also offered samples to various media in the German-speaking countries, so that's probably why Böhmermann already knew about the videos months ago ...

Here is the lawyer (on the right), Ramin Mirfakhrai (with Iranian migration background) + the Munich-based detective with Vienna roots Julian Hessenthaler (on the left):



Strache has filed a lawsuit against the 2 guys in the meantime.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Ibiza-Videos-Anwalt-gesteht-Mitwirkung/381610952

[Tender Branson]

Ramin Mirfakhrai (with Iranian migration background)

This is hilarious:

The name Ramin is of Arabic origin and means "Rescuer From Hunger And Pain. Brings Joy."

[Tender Branson]

Philippa Strache has abandoned her husband and moved back in with her parents and their newborn son Hendrik:

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Philippa-Strache-ist-mit-Kind-ausgezogen/381024623

#Cuck

Meanwhile, Philippa Strache has denied rumours that she has moved out and said that she's "of course" still together with H.C.

https://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Philippa-Strache---Ich-bin-nicht-ausgezogen---55789794

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ & FPÖ are more and more likely to get rid of Kurz (and even the whole cabinet) on Monday:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/parlament-neben-kanzler-droht-auch-tuerkisen-ministern-die-abwahl/400505644

VdB should probably compile a list of interim Chancellor and expert ministers over the next 2 days ...

[Tender Branson]

If Kurz is no longer Chancellor after next week, I would think that would hurt the OVP's chances to hit the high 30's in support levels in the September election, without the prestige of a popular incumbent chancellor leading the party.

Obviously, a number of factors will come into play by September - but yeah, if Kurz gets removed by parliament tomorrow, it could hurt him because as Chancellor he has a unique position to present himself (international meetings with other leaders etc.)

On the other hand, it could not impact him all too much, because Kurz is still very popular with voters overall.

[Tender Branson]

Shocking new developments about the Ibiza scandal:

It is possible that the Austrian Intelligence Service BVT (then led by ÖVP Interior Minister Sobotka) itself has commissioned the video material against Strache and Gudenus.

There are interesting links between the detective Julian Hessenthaler and the BMI, who at the time referred to the Austrian BMI as one of his "most precious clients". The reference on his website was deleted after the scandal broke, but apparently the reference was re-established by experts.

Another clue would be that FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl then raided the BVT after taking office and confiscated a lot of USB-sticks and other material. Maybe he was already aware of compromising material by the BVT against the FPÖ ?

Going further: Maybe it was the ÖVP's plan from the start to blow up the FPÖ at some point, after they passed the most important issues in parliament already and then to weaken the party for their own gain ? Or to get rid of them ? It would also explain why Kurz demanded Kickl to resign immediately, so that Kickl could not investigate further in the BMI/BVT what really happened.

https://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Steckt-Geheimdienst-BVT-hinter-Skandal-Video/381770100

So far, these are only rumours by the tabloid Ö24 and Kickl himself, but if true it would be a MEGA-scandal.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz just said while voting in the EU election that he fully expects to be voted out of office tomorrow by SPÖ-FPÖ-NOW.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz just said while voting in the EU election that he fully expects to be voted out of office tomorrow by SPÖ-FPÖ-NOW.

Who are the most likely candidates to become PM? Will they almost entirely come from the left or could VdB choose someone from the OVP?

As there has been no such case before, he could choose anyone. But considering the ÖVP won the election last time, you could assume that VdB would first ask a ÖVP person if they want to become interim Chancellor ... former EU commissioner Franz Fischler has been mentioned for example. Or former SPÖ President Heinz Fischer.

[Tender Branson]

The party NOW wants to merge with the Greens again ahead of the Sept. federal election and after their disappointing 2% today.

https://orf.at/stories/3124481

The Greens seem to be open about it, but probably only if Peter Pilz is not part of it.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ party committee has just voted unanimously to impeach Kurz tomorrow in parliament.

[Tender Branson]

The impeachment process against Kurz + maybe the whole government will begin at 1pm and last the whole afternoon with debates about it.

The SPÖ will introduce a bill to remove Kurz and his cabinet, while NOW will only introduce a bill to remove Kurz.

The FPÖ will not introduce their own bill and will also not abstain, but will vote on the other motions instead.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ will vote with the SPÖ to oust Kurz AND the whole cabinet.

Kurz impeachment vote set for ca. 4.30pm

[Tender Branson]

Do you think the impachment is going t help or hurt Kurz in the end? On one hand, the opposition comes off as incredibly petty, voting out a caretaker government. On the other hand, Kurz is losing the podium of power.

It will help him. Voters are opposed to his removal by a 70-30 (!) margin.

He can now play the victim card over the next months and form a ÖVP-Greens-NEOS government.

[Tender Branson]

Kurz and his cabinet were just voted out of office by SPÖ+FPÖ+NOW.

ÖVP+NEOS voted against.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1133028849548185601?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwc...

185 no-confidence votes were held in Austria since WW2, all of them failed.

The 186th today did not.

President VdB will meet with all party leaders tonight to discuss things.


Please, for the love of God, stop posting copyrighted images. If you're not sure about states of the image, just don't post it.

[Tender Branson]

So...what now?

So...

While the whole cabinet lost the confidence vote, they are still technically in office until President VdB officially removes them from office too. That is to avoid a political vacuum.

But this will only last a few days, because VdB already has a list of his own with potential cabinet members + interim Chancellor, who will be sworn in in a few days.

VdB will also speak to the press at 9pm, after meeting with all party and parliamentary group leaders (he's quite busy today, he also met with Greta Thunberg).

Once this new government is in place, they will set the election date (in September), so parliament can OK the date.

Kurz will then end up like Jon Snow: after being declared dead today by the opposition he will return from the "dead".

Then, in September, Austrian voters will pull out the daggers and "kill" the SPÖ for their actions today (I assume they will get ca. 20-24% in September, while a recovered FPÖ gets that support as well and the ÖVP close to 40%).

Kurz will then form a ÖVP-Greens-NEOS government, showing the middle-finger to both SPÖ and FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

So...what now?

President VdB has just spoken to the nation and said:

* He will dismiss the whole cabinet tomorrow at 11:30am.

* He will then immediately re-appoint them for the next few days, so there is no vacuum.

* Finance Minister Löger will become the new Chancellor for these few days, until VdB can present his new interim Chancellor and cabinet. Kurz will take a seat in parliament in the meantime for the coming months.

* VdB wants to find and present his Chancellor + cabinet by Sunday.

[Tender Branson]

The chances are high that VdB will pick a woman as the new Chancellor:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/van-der-bellen-sucht-eineeinen-neuen-regierungschefin/400508101

It would be the first female Chancellor, even if it would be just for 6 months.

Also, Kurz announced today that he will not take a seat in parliament as was speculated before, but go on a 4 month long campaign tour through Austria to meet people in every corner.

[Tender Branson]

Christine Haberlander (pronounced „Huh-buh-lun-duh“) would be a great choice for Chancellor in my opinion:



https://www.christine-haberlander.at

Young, female, ÖVP and with government experience (she’s the current Vice-Governor of Upper Austria).

[Tender Branson]

I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.

To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.

The vote-of-no-confidence against Kurz maybe helped the SPÖ a bit in their urban areas, but not in the rural areas, where many older SPÖ-voters also like Kurz and are disappointed with the actions of their party. I think voters will punish the SPÖ for this.

My preliminary prediction for September, also based on the EU trends:

38-40% ÖVP
20-25% SPÖ
18-22% FPÖ
  8-12% Greens (combined, with NOW)
    5-7% NEOS
       1% KPÖ
       1% Others

Most likely: 38% ÖVP, 24% SPÖ, 20% FPÖ, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Others.

[Tender Branson]

I feel that the SPO was caught in a dead if you do and a dead if you don't the situation.
Looking at it, they could either leave Kurz to use his political position during the election or take him out but face the wrath of the electorate.
I still think that jumping on the VONC was the better choice for SPO.
Anyway, it's clear that the SPO needs to do some self-reflecting after they inevitably lose to Kurz again.

To be clear though, I do not think Kurz should have been VONC'd as the resignation of Strache was more than enough.

The vote-of-no-confidence against Kurz maybe helped the SPÖ a bit in their urban areas, but not in the rural areas, where many older SPÖ-voters also like Kurz and are disappointed with the actions of their party. I think voters will punish the SPÖ for this.

My preliminary prediction for September, also based on the EU trends:

38-40% ÖVP
20-25% SPÖ
18-22% FPÖ
  8-12% Greens (combined, with NOW)
    5-7% NEOS
       1% KPÖ
       1% Others

Most likely: 38% ÖVP, 24% SPÖ, 20% FPÖ, 10% Greens/NOW, 6% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Others.

Do you have any ideas as to who could succeed Wagner if the SPO performs badly in the September elections?

They WILL perform badly and no, not really. Certainly not Doskozil or Kaiser, as they want to remain Governors of their states. Maybe an unused fresh-face unionist from the FSG out of the states. It’s what they would need to find their way back ...

[Tender Branson]

The election date will be decided by the new, incoming interim government that VdB appoints over the next days + the parties.

They will need a consensus date, because Sept. 1 and 8 are still during the summer holidays and therefore out.

Which means Sept. 15, 22 and 29 are the likely dates.

The ÖVP apparently favours Sept. 15, the SPÖ Sept. 22 and the FPÖ has no particular wish. NEOS is siding with the ÖVP and wants Sept. 15, because this is also what President VdB said ("early September").

Btw: Israel votes on September 17th.

https://derstandard.at/2000104041104/Gerangel-um-Wahltermin-15-oder-22-September-moeglich

[Tender Branson]

So, the 340.000 university students in Austria elected their student parliament over the last days.

This is similar to a regular parliamentary election, just in each university, and is done every 2 years.

Here are the results (changes compared with 2017):



AG = ÖVP
GRAS = Greens
VSStÖ = SPÖ
JUNOS = NEOS
FLÖ = Independents (left-wing)
KSV-LiLi = KPÖ 1.0
KSV-KJÖ = KPÖ 2.0
RFS = FPÖ
No Ma'am = The Party (satire)

Turnout: 26% (+2) ... damn lazy students.

The current government is VSStÖ, GRAS & FLÖ with 29/55 seats (frontrunners below):



They would have 31/55 seats now and could continue their government to represent students.

https://orf.at/stories/3124896

[Tender Branson]

Looks like 4 names are on President VdB's shortlist for Chancellor:

* Elisabeth Kornfeind (current Austrian ambassador in Belgium)
* Michael Linhart (current Austrian ambassador in France)
* Andreas Riecken (a high-ranking official in the Foreign Ministry)
* Gerhart Holzinger (former Constitutional Court Chief Justice)

VdB wants someone who has close EU ties and experience - for the coming EU negotiations.

It's possible that VdB could present his interim cabinet tomorrow already (today is a public holiday).

[Tender Branson]

Former FPÖ Interior Minister Herbert Kickl (literally, and in full campaign-mode already):

"The ÖVP is behind the Ibiza-video that brought down Strache and the ÖVP-FPÖ government !"

https://orf.at/stories/3125060

This comes as the interim Interior Minister Eckart Ratz is now cancelling several directives from Kickl, such as the lower voluntary pay for asylum seekers doing community work to just 1.5€/hour, or by re-naming asylum centers in Austria from "departure centers" to "acceptance centers" again. Ratz is also cancelling Kickl's police press directive, which mandated police to publish the nationality of every violent offender in their press release section.

Kickl: "They are going back to the same old, devastating pro-immigration policy now !"

[Tender Branson]

 Gotta love the disconnect between student support for the RFS and support for the FPO in Austria as a whole. Surprising that the AG is leading faction, but I guess thats just because there are so many left leaning groups. But perhaps among the strong majority of non-voting students there is a closer match to the political leanings of the rest of Austria.

Not really: All studies show that students are much more leftist than the overall population, voting a lot more Green and Liberal and far less for the FPÖ. Even among the general population, the FPÖ-share drops to 3-5% among those with a university degree. The FPÖ does a lot better with those who are not attending university after 12 years of school, especially among those who enter an apprenticeship and who start to work directly after school. Since most older Austrians chose an apprenticeship when they were younger, instead of a university education, that explains the high FPÖ-share in elections. Even today, the mostly small-business Austrian economy requires much more technicians and apprenticeship-based craftspersons than university-trained people and even a lot of parents these days want their children to enter an apprenticeship or vocational school, because in their opinion it better fits the current labour market and their chances to get a job. Not many parents want their kids to study philosophy etc. - where unemployment is high after a completed university degree. As a technician with a completed apprenticeship, you will immediately get a job these days.