The Official 2020 Census Thread

[Tender Branson]

Trump ends fight to include citizenship question on census and unveils new plan

President Trump officially dropped his controversial bid to add a citizenship question to the 2020 Census on Thursday. Instead, he announced at a Rose Garden ceremony that he was issuing an executive order that instructs federal agencies to report data to the Commerce Department in order to better tabulate the number of U.S. citizens.

“Today I’m here to say we are not backing down on our effort to determine the citizenship status of the United States population,” Trump told his invited guests, many of whom attended a forum on social media immediately beforehand. “It is essential that we have a clear breakdown of the number of citizens and noncitizens that make up the U.S. population — imperative. Knowing this information is vital to formulating sound public policy, whether the issue is health care, education, civil rights or immigration.”

Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts wrote in June that the Trump administration’s stated reason for including the citizenship question in the census was “contrived,” temporarily blocking it from being included. Acknowledging that whatever new rationale his administration put forth to justify the addition of the citizenship question would face lengthy court fights, Trump detailed his plan B.

“Therefore, we are pursuing a new option to ensure a complete and timely count of the noncitizen population,” Trump said. “Today I will be issuing an executive order to put this very plan into effect immediately. I’m hereby ordering every department and agency in the federal government to provide the Department of Commerce with all requested records regarding the number of citizens and noncitizens in our country.”

Trump said the collected data would be used “to gain a full, complete and accurate count of the noncitizen populations, including databases maintained by the Department of Homeland Security and the Social Security Administration.”

https://news.yahoo.com/trump-ends-fight-to-include-citizenship-question-on-census-and-unveils-new-plan-232435216.html

[Tender Branson]

Question:

How does the Census Bureau make sure that 20 Mio. or so Americans are not left uncounted, in the absence of a CPR (population registry) like we have here ?

Obviously, 75% of US households will respond either online or by mail after they get their forms and after repeat mails to participate.

But what about the other 25% ?

That’s 80 million people.

Many of them will be visited by census takers, but what if they are not at home ? Or do not want to be visited ?

Are statisticians then estimating the missing people by assuming someone is living in this house ? Are they asking neighbors ? What about counting the homeless ?

Isn’t it possible that not only 10 Mio. illegals are not counted but also the very poor, the government-hostile folks and the drug addicted ?

So, basically 20-30 million people will be missing next year.

The US population will probably be around 350 million in reality ...

[Tender Branson]

Leaving behind the ridiculous citizenship question, the Census Bureau seems to be generally on track for the operation next year, says a new GAO (U.S. Government Accountability Office) report:

Census Hiring, Office Needs Appear on Track, GAO Says

The Census Bureau “generally appears to be positioned” to meet its needs for hiring, office space and training related to next year’s census, the GAO has reported.

It said that as of last month, the agency had signed leases for 247 of 248 planned new temporary offices and that while it had experienced early delays when regions were trying to find office space and acquire leases, “Bureau officials said that the deadlines for the later phases of renovations will allow them to make up time lost.” The first wave of offices already is open while the second is set to open in the fall.

The report said that the Bureau has exceeded its schedule for hiring temporary employees, although it faces “challenges in areas such as completing background checks and hiring during low unemployment, especially for partnership specialist positions.”

Also, its training plan—which involves more remote learning than in prior censuses—generally follows leading practices but does not have goals and performance measures, GAO said, adding that without them the agency “will not be able to accurately assess the cost and benefits of its new training approach.”

https://www.fedweek.com/federal-managers-daily-report/census-hiring-office-needs-appear-on-track-gao-says

[Tender Branson]

You might be visited by Census workers in the next weeks, because the Address Canvassing Operation starts:

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-kits/2018/2020-adcan.html

The Address Canvassing Operation serves two purposes:

Deliver a complete and accurate address list and spatial database for enumeration.
Determine the type and address characteristics for each living quarter.

This operation implements methods to improve and refine the U.S. Census Bureau’s address list in advance of the 2020 Census. The Census Bureau needs the address and physical location of each living quarter in the United States and Puerto Rico to conduct and tabulate the census.

An accurate list ensures that residents will be invited to participate in the census and that the census counts residents in the correct location.

Examples (Lorton, Fairfax County, Virginia):

A satellite file from the 2010 Census address operation:



A satellite file of the same area taken recently for the 2020 address operaion:

[Tender Branson]

Study: Most states are prepping for 2020 census, not Florida.

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) has made it clear that he doesn’t have any desire to devote state resources to capture an accurate count in Florida for the 2020 U.S. Census. Now, a new report reveals that the Sunshine State is in the minority of states taking such a hands-off approach.

Florida is one of only 13 states that hasn’t taken any action towards creating a “complete count committee,” according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington D.C.-based think tank.

The census takes place every decade. It’s designed to provide an accurate and official count of all Americans to include fair representation in Congress and federal funding. Congressional seats are apportioned based on population, and the report says that the federal government distributed more than $900 billion to the states through 325 census-guide programs and projects, including Medicaid, highway planning and construction, child care assistance and foster care in 2016.

The Florida Phoenix reported last month that getting a less than complete and accurate count could be costly for Florida when it comes to the state’s congressional representation. The state currently has 27 representatives in the House of Representatives. Early projections indicate that Florida would gain two more seats after the 2020 census. But other studies say that a less than robust count could mean a net gain of only one additional seat.

https://www.floridaphoenix.com/blog/study-most-states-are-prepping-for-2020-census-not-florida

[Tender Branson]

Trump should not attack the Census, considering his constant bragging about JOBS, JOBS, JOBS:

The Census Bureau is hiring 500.000 workers starting this month.

That will temporarily bring down the unemployment rate to ~3% in the spring, if the economy also keeps doing well.

Levels not seen since the 1950s.

https://abc7chicago.com/careers/us-census-to-hire-500000-temporary-workers-for-2020-census-/5608137/

I guess nobody told him yet ... as he’s not smart enough to read the important news himself.

[Tender Branson]

Census Bureau Asks for State Data Including Citizenship Information

The U.S. Census Bureau is asking states for drivers’ license records that typically include citizenship data and has made a new request for information on recipients of government assistance, alarming some civil rights advocates.

The two approaches, documented by The Associated Press, come amid President Donald Trump’s efforts to make citizenship a key aspect of federal information-gathering in the run-up to the 2020 Census, despite this year’s U.S. Supreme Court ruling that a specific citizenship question can’t be included in the 2020 Census questionnaire.

Civil rights advocates worry that the wider net being cast by the Trump administration for such information could chill Latino participation in the population count, which will determine how many congressional seats each state gets and guide the allocation of hundreds of billions of dollars of federal funding. The results of the 2020 Census also will be used to redraw state and local electoral maps.

Experts caution that inaccuracies in state motor vehicle records also make them a poor choice for tracking citizenship, if that is the bureau’s goal.

After the Supreme Court ruling, President Donald Trump signed an executive order in July requiring the Commerce Department, which oversees the Census Bureau, to collect records on citizenship from federal agencies and increase efforts “to obtain State administrative records concerning citizenship.”

The American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators told The AP that most, if not all, states recently received requests for information including citizenship status, race, birthdates and addresses. The association has advised members to consult their privacy officers, and “each state is making their own determination how to respond,” spokeswoman Claire Jeffrey said in an email.

https://apnews.com/0b9e5ca716514d0eab593109b8eda71e

[Tender Branson]

With just slightly more than 1 month until the 2020 census operation starts in Alaska, 5 states have still not created a complete count committee:

5 States Resisting Creation of Public Awareness Campaigns to Promote the Upcoming 2020 Census

With billions in federal aid and seats in Congress at stake, some states are dragging their feet in carrying out one of the Census Bureau’s chief recommendations for making sure everyone is counted during the 2020 census.

Five states — Florida, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas — have not set up “complete count committees” that would create public awareness campaigns to encourage people to fill out the questionnaires.

(...)

State governments are appropriating nearly $350 million to reach people and get them to respond to the census. The amounts range from California’s record $187 million to Montana’s $100,000, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. New York City is committing $40 million.

States led by Democrats have spent more per capita. Of the 11 states spending at least $1 per resident, all but North Dakota have Democratic governors, according to an Associated Press analysis.

California, which stands to lose a seat in Congress, is spending $4.73 per person, using the money to target certain ethnic communities, provide educational materials to schools and identify community leaders who can personally encourage participation in the most populous state.

Spending on outreach offers a great return on investment, said Ditas Katague, director of the California Complete Count-Census 2020 Office.

“You have to look at how many programs will suffer and how much money we will lose,” Katague said.

In 2000, when California spent $24 million, 76 percent of residents returned the questionnaires by mail, outstripping the national average. In 2010, in the aftermath of the recession and budget cuts, California spent only $2 million, and the mail response rate dropped to 73 percent, below the national average.

https://time.com/5738022/census-awareness-panels/

[Tender Branson]

With just slightly more than 1 month until the 2020 census operation starts in Alaska, 5 states have still not created a complete count committee:

5 States Resisting Creation of Public Awareness Campaigns to Promote the Upcoming 2020 Census

With billions in federal aid and seats in Congress at stake, some states are dragging their feet in carrying out one of the Census Bureau’s chief recommendations for making sure everyone is counted during the 2020 census.

Five states — Florida, Louisiana, Nebraska, South Dakota and Texas — have not set up “complete count committees” that would create public awareness campaigns to encourage people to fill out the questionnaires.

(...)

State governments are appropriating nearly $350 million to reach people and get them to respond to the census. The amounts range from California’s record $187 million to Montana’s $100,000, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. New York City is committing $40 million.

States led by Democrats have spent more per capita. Of the 11 states spending at least $1 per resident, all but North Dakota have Democratic governors, according to an Associated Press analysis.

California, which stands to lose a seat in Congress, is spending $4.73 per person, using the money to target certain ethnic communities, provide educational materials to schools and identify community leaders who can personally encourage participation in the most populous state.

Spending on outreach offers a great return on investment, said Ditas Katague, director of the California Complete Count-Census 2020 Office.

“You have to look at how many programs will suffer and how much money we will lose,” Katague said.

In 2000, when California spent $24 million, 76 percent of residents returned the questionnaires by mail, outstripping the national average. In 2010, in the aftermath of the recession and budget cuts, California spent only $2 million, and the mail response rate dropped to 73 percent, below the national average.

https://time.com/5738022/census-awareness-panels/

I don't understand, do said states want less representation and federal money?

There are varying motives:

TX and FL (Republicans) worry that the massive influx of migrants in the past decade will lead to more additional congressional seats being created in urban areas, to their disadvantage.

That’s why those complete count committee bills died there in the GOP-held legislatures.

In NE and SD, the Governors argue that local initiatives are already doing what such a state committee would do, so there’s no need.

Not sure about LA.

[Tender Branson]

Another video out:

+ one for the Mexicans in the US etc:

[Tender Branson]

The 2020 Census operation has started with awareness ads in remote Alaska (the count there starts in a few weeks):

The first ads for the 2020 census launched this week in a remote part of Alaska with plans for an advertising campaign for the rest of the country slated for next month, the U.S. Census Bureau said Thursday.

The advertising launched this week is aimed at residents of 220 small native Alaskan villages where census takers will begin the once-a-decade headcount next month.

The count begins in January in these remote Alaskan villages because the ground is frozen then, allowing easier access than at other times of the year. The kickoff is the third week in January in Toksook Bay, a village on the Bering Sea west of Bethel.

The rest of the country will begin filling out the 2020 census questionnaire in March.

This is the first year the Census Bureau has aired ads targeting the residents of the remote Alaskan villages. The campaign includes full-page print ads, commercial signage, posters, radio ads and digital content.

Nationwide, the Census Bureau plans to spend $500 million on a communications campaign to get people to answer the questionnaire. For the first time, the agency is encouraging a majority of participants to fill it out online, though it can also be filled out by telephone or by mailing a paper form.

The 2020 census will determine how many congressional seats each state gets as well as direct the distribution of $1.5 trillion in federal spending.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2019/12/26/us/ap-us-2020-census-ads.html

[Tender Branson]

In hindsight, this is interesting:

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2011/01/12/state-population-estimates-and-census-2010-counts-did-they-match/

CA, TX and FL - states with big growth and large Hispanic immigrant shares - actually had counts close to the estimates before the Census.

The biggest outlier was AZ, where far fewer people were counted than it was estimated.

[Tender Branson]

Reference numbers:

Based on today's mid-2019 estimates, about 329.5 million people should be counted in the next few months.

Depending on how many Americans fill out their forms online etc. - there could also be a significant over- or undercount.

Also:

If you are jobless right now, the Census Bureau is increasing their pay because of the low unemployment rate in the country. They need 500.000 census takers in the next few months.

Pay is ca. 25$ the hour.

https://www.post-gazette.com/local/region/2019/12/29/Census-bureau-raises-pay-attract-applicants-Pittsburgh-area-pennsylvania/stories/201912260118

[Tender Branson]

With the Census officially being launched on Tuesday in Alaska, hiring the 500.000 needed census takers is going well:

https://federalnewsnetwork.com/agency-oversight/2020/01/as-2020-census-hiring-ramps-up-bureau-expects-swimmingly-successful-field-operations

The Census Bureau already has 1.7 million applications for the 500k jobs, with 30k more coming per day.

They set a goal of 2.7 million and they still have 2 months left until they stop hiring and start training them for the May-August field operations.

[Tender Branson]

Today, the 2020 Census officially starts, in Alaska:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-census/us-census-bureau-launches-once-a-decade-head-count-in-rural-alaska-idUSKBN1ZK177

Mainland + Hawaii people will get their information cards to respond in March.

[Tender Branson]

New PEW survey about the coming Census operation:

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/02/20/most-adults-aware-of-2020-census-and-ready-to-respond-but-dont-know-key-details

Americans are very clueless about the 10-year Census.

60% still think that Citizenship will be asked in the Census questionnaire (wrong).

Another 20% are undecided. Only 17% know that it won’t be asked.

About 80% of Americans will take part in the Census (historical average).

Old people are more likely to take part as young people and Whites more than minorities.

Most will respond online, even though only a small fraction of Americans know so far that online response will be an option for the first time this year ...

The Census Bureau will spend 500 Million $ the next weeks on an information campaign.

[Tender Branson]

The mailers are now being sent out to every household in the US.

Most will respond online or by phone, but many won’t - and it is unclear what the Census Bureau will do with regards to personal followup interviews at home ...

March 12 - 20: Households began receiving official Census Bureau mail with detailed information on how to respond to the 2020 Census online, by phone, or by mail.

March 30 - April 1: The Census Bureau will count people who are experiencing homelessness over these three days. As part of this process, the Census Bureau counts people in shelters, at soup kitchens and mobile food vans, on the streets, and at non-sheltered, outdoor locations such as tent encampments.

April 1: Census Day is observed nationwide. When you respond to the census, you'll tell the Census Bureau where you live as of April 1, 2020.

https://2020census.gov/en/important-dates.html

[Tender Branson]

The virus will likely cause record low response rates, they can't send people door to door.

Not really.

You can respond online for the first time ever.

And also by mail or by phone.

Based on previous census experience, 90%+ will respond in such a way.

A visit by the Census takers is only the last resort and this might still be done if they interview from a certain distance from your doorstep.

[Tender Branson]

The online census was the easiest thing.

How was it ?

Can you describe the procedure for us non-Americans ?

[Tender Branson]

The online census was the easiest thing.

How was it ?

Can you describe the procedure for us non-Americans ?

You get a letter with 12-digit alphanumeric code that corresponds to your address. Then, you go to the census site and put that code in to get the digital form.

Then, you fill out the form with the relevant information (most items are checkboxes and multiple choice answers), submit, and print the confirmation code for your records.

The forms took less than 10 minutes to complete total.

Good.

As it should be ...

Hopefully, most will respond in such a way or by mail or phone - so they don't have the hassle with the followup visits.

I also hope the online system doesn't crash at some point the next weeks when millions of Americans will fill it out at the same time.

If the CB conducts this census well with high response rates (or similar ones compared with 2010 or 2000), then we can applaud them for their work.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Currently, more than 11 million US households have already completed their census forms online, by mail or by phone.

Self-Response Rate Map Data and Technical Documentation

The U.S. Census Bureau has launched an interactive map to help community leaders, the media, and the public track self-response to the 2020 Census. The map, available on 2020census.gov/response-rates, currently displays 2010 Census self-response rates as a reference point for states, counties, cities, census tracts, and various other geographies around the country.

Beginning March 20, 2020, the Census Bureau will update the map daily to reflect current 2020 self-response rates for geographies including states, counties, census tracts, congressional districts, towns or townships, consolidated cities, incorporated places, tribal areas, and tribal census tracts. This map will show only self-response rates where census forms were completed online, by mail, or by phone. The remainder of households will be counted in person by census takers.

Updates and Data Availability

The 2020 Census Self-Response Rate Map and the data in the public API will be updated once daily at 3:00 pm Eastern seven days a week from March 20 to May 31. Starting on June 1, the map and data will be updated Monday through Friday with the final update on July 31. There will be no updates on Friday, July 3.

The data for the 2020 Census Self-Response Rate Map will be available in the Census Bureau’s public API. See the Developers webpage on census.gov for general API information and support.

Technical documentation link

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Currently, more than 11 million US households have already completed their census forms online, by mail or by phone.

The US has about 130 million households, so if the map launches today - the national response rate should start at around 10%.

In 2010, the CB started their response map on March 24 (4 days later than now) and started with a 16% return rate.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Currently, more than 11 million US households have already completed their census forms online, by mail or by phone.

The US has about 130 million households, so if the map launches today - the national response rate should start at around 10%.

In 2010, the CB started their response map on March 24 (4 days later than now) and started with a 16% return rate.

It’s pretty likely that the initial 2020 response rate after the 1st round of mailings will start at the same rate as 2010.

So, millions of Americans will fill out their forms over the weekend, which means that the 16% initial rate from March 24, 2010 could be met.

Don’t be discouraged by a 10% rate today ... The important update for comparison will be Tuesday.

[Tender Branson]

The Census Bureau will launch the response rate map today, which is updated daily (down to county, city, town and census tract level):

https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html

Currently, more than 11 million US households have already completed their census forms online, by mail or by phone.

The US has about 130 million households, so if the map launches today - the national response rate should start at around 10%.

In 2010, the CB started their response map on March 24 (4 days later than now) and started with a 16% return rate.

It’s pretty likely that the initial 2020 response rate after the 1st round of mailings will start at the same rate as 2010.

So, millions of Americans will fill out their forms over the weekend, which means that the 16% initial rate from March 24, 2010 could be met.

Don’t be discouraged by a 10% rate today ... The important update for comparison will be Tuesday.

In 2010, the CB sent out the first round of mailings between March 15-17 and the initial response map started March 24.

This time, the CB sent out the first mailers between March 12-20, with the response map already starting today (March 20).

So it is almost guaranteed that the early 2020 response will be lower compared with 2010, because they had a 1 week headstart.

Factoring in these facts, only the March 27 update would show comparable rates this year compared with 2010 ...

[Tender Branson]

For blue state republicans in blue areas it makes sense not to participate.  The only recourse since your vote doesn't mean anything.  But you can reduce the power of that vote.  Particularly for states like California on the verge of losing a district. 

The 10-year Census is not primarily about elections or reapportionment.

It is to determine the size of the population and redistribution of federal funds to counties and communities.

Therefore, everyone should take part in this - and leave politics aside.

Besides, when will Trump fill out his form ?

I remember Obama and Clinton filling out their forms in 2010 and 2000 ...