Austrian state elections 2018 - Prediction Thread (Next: April 22 - Salzburg)

[Tender Branson]

The election is on Sunday.

My prediction, following the FPÖ's Far-Right Fraternity/Nazi songbook controversy:

46.4% ÖVP
25.7% SPÖ
16.3% FPÖ
 6.1% NEOS
 5.5% Greens

Turnout: 74.0%

---

2013 results and current polling:

[Tender Branson]

Actual results for Lower Austria:

49.6% ÖVP
23.9% SPÖ
14.8% FPÖ
  6.4% Greens
  5.2% NEOS

Turnout: 66.6%

[Tender Branson]

Tyrol state election: February 25th

Very hard to predict, especially because there are 3 small ÖVP splinter parties.

My early prediction:

48% ÖVP (+9%)
16% FPÖ (+7%)
15% SPÖ (+1%)
  9% Greens (-4%)
  6% NEOS (+6%)
  4% Fritz (-2%)
  2% Others (-17%)

Absolute majority for the ÖVP.

[Tender Branson]

My early prediction for the March 3 Carinthia state election:

34% SPÖ (-3%)
26% FPÖ (+9%)
21% ÖVP (+7%)
  6% Greens (-6%)
  5% TK (-6%)
  5% NEOS (+5%)
  1% ERDE (+1%)
  1% F.A.I.R. (+1%)
<1% BZÖ (-6%)
<1% KPÖ+

Very hard to predict because the 2013 election was a major rebuke for the FPÖ and their involvement in the HYPO bank scandal and a vote against everything Jörg-Haider related.

[Tender Branson]

My early prediction for the April 22 Salzburg state election:

42% ÖVP (+13%)
23% SPÖ (-1%)
17% FPÖ (n.c.)
  9% Greens (-11%)
  6% NEOS (+6%)
  1% FPS (+1%)
  1% SBG (+1%)
  1% FWS (+1%)
<1% KPÖ+
<1% CPÖ

* Team Stronach + Pirates got 10% in 2013.

Also very hard to predict, because the election back in 2013 was at the height of the investment scandal which dragged the SPÖ down to a record low of 24% after getting 45% in 2004. The situation doesn't really seem to have improved for the Social Democrats, because they are polling even lower than that ... The Greens got a record 20% in 2013, which is unsustainable this year. Most of their former voters (including myself) will vote for the ÖVP and NEOS this time, because many of them are centrist or conservative-leaning or business-minded. The SPÖ will gain almost nothing from the Green collapse here. This was already seen in the federal election, where the ÖVP gained a lot. The SPÖ actually lost ground. I predict that the FPÖ will gain almost nothing compared with 2013 and if you combine FPÖ+FPS, they could actually lose ground. NEOS will do really well in this election, they have a reasonable frontrunner from the hotel/tourism sector and a good organisation in the capital, the city of Salzburg. Other parties will remain largely meaningless.

[Tender Branson]

Tyrol state election: February 25th

Very hard to predict, especially because there are 3 small ÖVP splinter parties.

My early prediction:

48% ÖVP (+9%)
16% FPÖ (+7%)
15% SPÖ (+1%)
  9% Greens (-4%)
  6% NEOS (+6%)
  4% Fritz (-2%)
  2% Others (-17%)

Absolute majority for the ÖVP.

Only 16% for the FPÖ? Seen up to 26% for them in the polls,

The ÖVP will dominate in this election, leaving no room for the FPÖ.

Besides, 26% for them is absurd. They only received 25% as a max. result in the federal election.

I'd put the FPÖ-Tyrol in a range of 13-19% this year, not more.

[Tender Branson]

UPDATE: added a turnout prediction, based on final absentee ballot requests.

With only 1 day until the Tyrol state election, here is my FINAL detailed prediction (yes, the FPÖ will finish below 15%, after they were projected to get 20-25% last year):

42.7% ÖVP (+3.3%)
17.8% SPÖ (+4.1%)
14.9% FPÖ (+5.6%)
  9.3% Greens (-3.3%)
  7.1% NEOS (+7.1%)
  5.9% Fritz (+0.3%)
  2.3% Others (-17.1%)

Turnout: 58.8% (-1.6%)

Does anyone else want to try a prediction ?

[Tender Branson]

Thanks for the predictions so far.

Important reminder for those who still want to post one:

I will temporarily lock the thread in 12 hours when polls are opening.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP 45%
SPÖ 17%
FPÖ 16%
Greens 8%
NEOS 6%
Fritz 6%

Turnout: 61%

This was the best prediction (except for the Greens).

Congrats.

[Tender Branson]

Why every party rose?

Because 6 parties from 2013 did not run anymore and they had a combined 20% back then.

Also, the Greens and Fritz lost support too.

[Tender Branson]

My final detailed prediction for the Carinthia state election on Sunday:

44.8% SPÖ (+7.7%)
22.2% FPÖ (+5.3%)
19.8% ÖVP (+5.4%)
  4.6% TK (-6.6%)
  3.8% NEOS (+3.8%)
  3.0% Greens (-9.1%)
  0.7% F.A.I.R. (+0.7%)
  0.6% ERDE (+0.6%)
  0.3% BZÖ (-6.1%)
  0.2% KPÖ-Plus (+0.2%)
  0.0% Others (-1.9%)

Turnout: 77.4% (+2.2%)

---

Absolute majority for the SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

I had the "best" prediction this time, but I was still far off ...

Actual results:

[Tender Branson]

Do you think the SPÖ is gaining support from the collapse of the Greens?

Moderately.

In the capital region Salzburg City and suburbs, many former Green voters will vote SPÖ this time.

In the rural areas, former Green voters will vote for the ÖVP (myself being an exception, because I'm from the rural part of the state and voted for the Greens in 2013, but I voted for the SPÖ this time already).

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP: 34.7
SPÖ: 24.1
FPÖ: 17.7
Greens: 12.1
NEOS: 7.3

I officially guarantee this outcome.

So, you guys are predicting 20% for FPÖ+FPS ?

I think they won't do that well around here, instead the ÖVP should do really well (~40%).

But we'll see ...

[Tender Branson]

With just 2 days to go, here is my latest Salzburg prediction:

37.6% ÖVP (+8.6%)
30.1% SPÖ (+6.3%)
14.0% FPÖ (-3.0%)
  9.5% Greens (-10.7%)
  5.8% NEOS (+5.8%)
  1.6% FPS (+1.6%)
  0.9% SBG (+0.9%)
  0.4% KPÖ-Plus (+0.1%)
  0.1% CPÖ (+0.1%)

Team Stronach (8.4%) and Pirate Party (1.3%) are not on the ballot any longer.

I think that the FPS will do much better in the more local state election than in the federal election and eat into the FPÖ's share. Combined, I expect FPÖ/FPS to get around 16%, which would mean a stagnation compared with the 2013 results, or even a small decline.

The FPÖ has never gone beyond 20% in a state election here, not even under Haider - and the situation and trend for the Salzburg-FPÖ seems to be even weaker now than under Haider ... I'd be quite surprised if FPÖ+FPS cross the 20% threshold.

[Tender Branson]

Wow, our predictions were bad this time.

But mine was the worst of all ...

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg prediction results (average error by party + others):

jaichind: 2.2 points
Beezer: 2.3 points
DavidB: 2.9 points
Tender: 3.4 points
maineiac4434: 3.6 points

[Tender Branson]

Wow, our predictions were bad this time.

What were the results?