Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-FPÖ have talked until midnight yesterday.

According to "Profil" magazine and the APA, they agreed on various measures such as a better kindergarten education (a mandatory 2nd kindergarten year + better integration efforts for children who come from non-German speaking families).

They also agreed on the size of the tax cut (5.2 Bio. €), which is far away from the 12-14 Bio. € that both ÖVP and FPÖ were talking about in their campaign platforms (but I already said a few months ago that is is only campaign talk and nothing more. A size like this was always unrealistic, considering the budgetary situation). It looks like they will pass it either next year or in 2019 and it will take effect a year later.

ÖVP and FPÖ also want to raise pensions to a minimum of 1.200€ per month (14x per year), for everyone who has paid 40 years into the system.

They also said that talks in many of the 25 groups have almost come to a conclusion, yet there are other areas such as direct democracy, the smoking ban and the reform of the social partnership in which they are still struggling to find a compromise.

http://orf.at/stories/2416356/2416355

[Tender Branson]

Will the new digital account me mandatory? Or opt out/pot in?
Would it require fingerprints for identification?

From what Strache and Kurz said in the press conference, it will definitely be opt-in and not mandatory.

And no fingerprints. Fingerprints are only necessary right now when applying for a new passport.

I think the new digital e-government system will run along the current tax-return system, in which applicants will get a series of personal codes to secure their account ...

I already use this system when I file my taxes and I like it. Security concerns are always there, but I guess it's considered safe.

[Tender Branson]

The Lower Austria state election on Jan. 28th has come into the spotlight recently, because of the tirades of the (new) FPÖ frontrunner there and the 3rd on the FPÖ's state list:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/entgleisung-fpoe-spitzenkandidat-udo-landbauer-nennt-mikl-leitner-moslem-mama-mikl/298.739.826

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Skandal-Posting-Wirbel-um-FPOe-Kandidatin/310332518

Udo Landbauer, the frontrunner, referred to Gov. Johanna Mikl-Leitner (ÖVP) as "muslim mom" recently who "does nothing to stop the Islamisation".

Vesna Schuster, the 3rd on their list, has viciously attacked a Norbert Hofer opponent on Facebook during the 2016 presidential campaign:



Parts read: "This creature can vote ?"

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Also interesting is the fact that both Landbauer and Schuster are FPÖ-politicians with a migration background: Landbauer's mother is from Iran, while Schuster's parents are from the former Yugoslavia.

[Tender Branson]

Ö24's new, by-weekly poll has no significant changes:

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, the first round of the mayoral by-election in the City of Salzburg will take place.

There are 6 candidates:



From left: Andreas Reindl (FPÖ), Christoph Ferch (Independent), Harald Preuner (ÖVP)
Bernhard Auinger (SPÖ), Johann Padutsch (Greens) and Barbara Unterkofler (Neos).

Outgoing mayor Heinz Schaden from the SPÖ (retiring after 18 years) is leaving behind a debt-free city (actually, the city has 90 million in debts - but 150 million € in assets). Also, the debt level has fallen from 200 million € to 90 million since Schaden started his term.

Still, Preuner (ÖVP) has the best chances to win the first round and not Auinger, the SPÖ candidate.

Why ?

Despite the fact that city voters give outgoing mayor Schaden a 61-16 approval rating (according to a recent SN poll), voters also favour a continuation of the strict savings policies that Schaden implemented - while only doing modest investments. By a 57-32 margin, voters favour the saving over more investments and more debts.

That savings policy is exactly what Preuner favours as well. He's also the current acting Mayor of the city and has a small incumbency bonus. Auinger on the other hand wants more investments, even if the debt increases.

It is likely that Preuner will end up with around 40% tomorrow, Auinger with 35%, and the Green and NEOS candidates with around 10% each. The FPÖ candidate and Ferch will play no role and will combine for 5% (which would be a record-low for the FPÖ there).

Other important topics included the traffic and housing situation in the city.

https://www.sn.at/salzburg/politik/salzburg-heinz-schadens-sparkurs-kommt-immer-noch-gut-an-20687632

A runoff, which seems likely, will be held on December 10.

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna Greens held a "crisis" convention today, well ... actually it was a "future strategy" convention ...

As we all know, the Austrian Greens and their splinter (List Pilz) are currently in full self-destruction mode and they don't like each other either.



Maria Vassilakou, the longtime Vienna Green leader, is badly damaged as leader on her own after the federal debacle but also because of the Heymarket highrise investment debacle - which she supported, but which was rejected by a majority of the Green base in a membership vote. It is unclear if she survived today's confidence vote (journalists were not allowed during the debates and votes during the afternoon) and a result will only be known in the evening.



In Lower Austria, the "Pilz" List might run (or not ?) and keep the Greens out of the state parliament on Jan. 28th ...

In Carinthia, the Greens also split: After it turned out that the Greens allowed asylum seekers to vote in their state convention (which was illegal), a leading politician founded a new list called "F.A.I.R" ("For all interested reformers"), which might compete along the Greens and the List "Pilz" - but all 3 look pretty dead there ...

The Greens in Salzburg and Tyrol (who will also have state elections early next year) are fine for now, but they will lose significant support as well (the Salzburg Greens got 20% in 2013 - I guess they will easily drop below 10% and the Tyrol Greens as well).

http://derstandard.at/2000068484393/Wiener-Gruene-diskutieren-ueber-Zukunft-der-Partei

[Tender Branson]

Good thread. I liked this post in particular. Austria owes migrants nothing. I suspect most would rather move to Germany for larger handouts than work for less in Austria. Of course, in the long run, different European countries pushing immigrants off on each other doesn't fix the problem. To do that, the flow across the Mediterranean must be stopped.

I agree.

The bold part is not entirely correct though: Germany doesn't have larger handouts for asylum seekers and economic migrants than Austria. Currently, single asylum seekers get 850€ per month in most Austrian states. For families, it is much higher - there have been cases where an Afghan family got up to 8.000€ per month.

Some states like Upper Austria have now capped welfare payments to foreigners at 1.500€ for families and 365€ for single persons (+ 165€ per month as an "integration bonus", meaning they only get this surplus payment if they sign a contract that they will either work, or visit an employment/education course and live along Austrian values, => not commit crimes such as domestic violence and abuse against women).

Lower Austria's welfare is slightly higher at 560€, much like Burgenland's. All other states are still paying the 850€ per month + additional housing benefits if necessary.

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In Germany on the other hand, asylum seekers get only 350€ in cash payments per month - but the state is paying for most of the needed utilities, such as housing.

Considering the average rent in Germany is around 400-600€ per month, they spend roughly the same amount as we do in Austria on asylum seekers.

As a total sum, Germany currently spends ca. 30 Bio. € a year on asylum seekers + their integration efforts, Austria roughly 3 Bio. € per year (considering it has only 1/10 of the German population).

[Tender Branson]

The Vienna Greens held a "crisis" convention today ...

Maria Vassilakou, the longtime Vienna Green leader, is badly damaged as leader on her own (and) it is unclear if she survived today's confidence vote (journalists were not allowed during the debates and votes during the afternoon) and a result will only be known in the evening.

Vassilakou survived the confidence vote with 75% of the delegate votes that were cast and will continue to limp along as Vienna Green leader for the next year (which is when they will either re-elect her as frontrunner for the 2020 state election, or choose a new party leader).

[Tender Branson]

One of the biggest hurdles remaining in the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition talks is how direct democracy should be strengthened.

Both ÖVP and FPÖ want more direct democracy, but the FPÖ wants a Swiss model in which only 4% of eligible voters can initiate a referendum with their signatures (=240.000 signatures), but the ÖVP wants a threshold of 10% (=640.000 signatures).

Also, the ÖVP's Köstinger said today that they want to create a system which makes sure there are no campaigns worth millions of € (like in the US), that there's no influence from radical outside groups and no influence from abroad (Russia, Turkey etc.)

Voters will likely get a neutral government booklet with arguments for and against for each referendum topic, like in Switzerland. And maybe a hurdle of 7-8% of eligible voters.

Both ÖVP and FPÖ also agreed that issues that are against the Austrian Constitution or Human/European rights are not subject to referendums (such as the death penalty).

http://orf.at/#/stories/2416457

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, the first round of the mayoral by-election in the City of Salzburg will take place.

There are 6 candidates:



From left: Andreas Reindl (FPÖ), Christoph Ferch (Independent), Harald Preuner (ÖVP)
Bernhard Auinger (SPÖ), Johann Padutsch (Greens) and Barbara Unterkofler (Neos).

(...)

A runoff, which seems likely, will be held on December 10.

Results:

35% Preuner (ÖVP) => runoff
32% Auinger (SPÖ) => runoff

12% Padutsch (Greens)
11% Unterkofler (NEOS)
  7% Reindl (FPÖ)
  3% Ferch (Indy)

http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2880512

Based on these results, the runoff should be really close ...

[Tender Branson]

Here are the results of the Salzburg City election today, by city district:



As expected, the SPÖ-candidate won the inner-city and northern parts and the ÖVP-candidate the outer districts. The Green and NEOS candidates were very strong in the inner-city areas (10-20%). The FPÖ candidate only got more than 10% in a few districts.

[Tender Branson]

The public ORF reports that the ÖVP/FPÖ coalition talks are very likely to be finalized during the long weekend between December 8-10.

http://orf.at/stories/2416622

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5328363/SchwarzBlau-im-Endspurt

If the new government is presented on this weekend, it will likely be sworn in by President VdB on December 11th or 12th, after the coalition contract is signed off by the ÖVP and FPÖ party committees on Monday.

President Van der Bellen has already cancelled his planned Lebanon visit for this week and parliament has set a session for December 13th.

The new Chancellor Kurz and Vice-Chancellor Strache could introduce their government there and Chancellor Kurz would then fly to Brussels for the EU summit on December 14-15.

Tomorrow, ÖVP-FPÖ will present their plans on education. The reports also say that they are stepping up the negotiation speed significantly over the next 2 weeks, with the steering group meeting virtually every day now.

[Tender Branson]

Today it emerged that ÖVP/FPÖ want to merge several social security carriers.

The number of carriers would drop from the current 21 to about 10, for example by merging the carrier for self-employed with the farmers etc.

This would make them more efficient, they say (mergers have already been passed about a decade ago, for example when the carrier for the Railway employees was merged with the Mining Industry carrier).

Also, ÖVP+FPÖ plan to expand all-day care in schools.

[Tender Branson]

The December 11-15 week will be awesome:

* The new right-wing ÖVP/FPÖ government gets sworn in
* The Constitutional Court might rule in favour of gay marriage (no later than Dec. 15)

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ presented their common education platform today (nothing really controversial):

http://derstandard.at/2000068669389/Lehrer-sollen-kuenftig-nach-Leistung-bezahlt-werden

Some points:

* more funding for kindergartens + elementary/middle schools and kids (to screen for and help talents early on), strengthening of social and creative skills of students.

* teaching kids Austrian/Western/liberal values early on, from kindergarten. Children from (Muslim) migrant backgrounds will have to pass a level of German before entering elementary school, or take additional German lessons if they are not passing that basic level after 2 years of kindergarten. If migrant parents with a potential radical background do not send their kids to school or tell them not to shake hands with female teachers etc., welfare benefits of these parents will be cut.

* more comprehensive, all-day schooling (to help out working moms in the afternoon)

* teaching kids more economic/entrepreneurial competence in school, such as e-learning, digital media, coding and how to create/run a business ...

* stricter controls of Muslim kindergartens and if necessary ... they will be shut down, if they do not follow state guidelines. Kindergarten lead teachers will need to have a mandatory university degree and outside financing (from Turkey, Saudi Arabia) will be banned.

* teachers will be rewarded if they produce good educational results among their students and teachers will have to take mandatory skill enhancement courses throughout the year to remain up-to-date.

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-leader Strache apparently will not become Interior Minister (because Vice-Chancellor, party leader and Interior Minister would be too work-intensive):

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5329157/FPOe-hat-es-beim-Verhandeln-nicht-so-eilig-wie-die-OeVP

There are a lot of rumours around right now, so we still need to wait until the end.

[Tender Branson]

The fact that ÖVP+FPÖ will soon enter a coalition on the federal level doesn't mean they are playing nice on the state level ...

In Lower Austria (state elections on Jan. 28th), this is the new FPÖ-poster:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Johanna Mikl-Leitner is the ÖVP-Governor there.

The ÖVP is playing it down as "election campaign season".

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ presented their common education platform today (nothing really controversial):

http://derstandard.at/2000068669389/Lehrer-sollen-kuenftig-nach-Leistung-bezahlt-werden

Some points:

* more funding for kindergartens + elementary/middle schools and kids (to screen for and help talents early on), strengthening of social and creative skills of students.

* teaching kids Austrian/Western/liberal values early on, from kindergarten. Children from (Muslim) migrant backgrounds will have to pass a level of German before entering elementary school, or take additional German lessons if they are not passing that basic level after 2 years of kindergarten. If migrant parents with a potential radical background do not send their kids to school or tell them not to shake hands with female teachers etc., welfare benefits of these parents will be cut.

* more comprehensive, all-day schooling (to help out working moms in the afternoon)

* teaching kids more economic/entrepreneurial competence in school, such as e-learning, digital media, coding and how to create/run a business ...

* stricter controls of Muslim kindergartens and if necessary ... they will be shut down, if they do not follow state guidelines. Kindergarten lead teachers will need to have a mandatory university degree and outside financing (from Turkey, Saudi Arabia) will be banned.

* teachers will be rewarded if they produce good educational results among their students and teachers will have to take mandatory skill enhancement courses throughout the year to remain up-to-date.

I think that's unconstitutional, both according to Austrian constitution and EUHRC.

anyway fair play to FPÖ, unlike their Afd\FN\Ukip counterparts they actually look like a party capable of governing.

What do you think is unconstitutional ?

Parents not sending their kids to school ? Or that the government can cut their welfare, if they refuse to send their kids to school ?

[Tender Branson]

New development:

ÖVP/FPÖ might grant Austrian citizenship to South Tyrolians.

http://orf.at/stories/2416885

The FPÖ is definitely in favour, the ÖVP is thinking about it and is in close contact with the South Tyrol government and the Italian government.

Recently, 19 of the 35 MPs in the South Tyrol state parliament signed and sent a letter to Kurz/Strache, asking them to grant Austrian citizenship for the (German-speaking) minority. I guess Italian- and Ladin-speaking people would also be able to request it, considering it will apply to all citizens of South Tyrol.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ presented their common education platform today (nothing really controversial):

http://derstandard.at/2000068669389/Lehrer-sollen-kuenftig-nach-Leistung-bezahlt-werden

Some points:

* more funding for kindergartens + elementary/middle schools and kids (to screen for and help talents early on), strengthening of social and creative skills of students.

* teaching kids Austrian/Western/liberal values early on, from kindergarten. Children from (Muslim) migrant backgrounds will have to pass a level of German before entering elementary school, or take additional German lessons if they are not passing that basic level after 2 years of kindergarten. If migrant parents with a potential radical background do not send their kids to school or tell them not to shake hands with female teachers etc., welfare benefits of these parents will be cut.

* more comprehensive, all-day schooling (to help out working moms in the afternoon)

* teaching kids more economic/entrepreneurial competence in school, such as e-learning, digital media, coding and how to create/run a business ...

* stricter controls of Muslim kindergartens and if necessary ... they will be shut down, if they do not follow state guidelines. Kindergarten lead teachers will need to have a mandatory university degree and outside financing (from Turkey, Saudi Arabia) will be banned.

* teachers will be rewarded if they produce good educational results among their students and teachers will have to take mandatory skill enhancement courses throughout the year to remain up-to-date.

I think that's unconstitutional, both according to Austrian constitution and EUHRC.

anyway fair play to FPÖ, unlike their Afd\FN\Ukip counterparts they actually look like a party capable of governing.

What do you think is unconstitutional ?

Parents not sending their kids to school ? Or that the government can cut their welfare, if they refuse to send their kids to school ?

A law discriminating on background  (ethnicity or religion) would be cancelled by European courts for sure

I seriously doubt this. There are means to formulate the sanctions in a way that courts would uphold it if they are challenged. ÖVP and FPÖ are consulting constitutional experts in their talks after all.

[Tender Branson]

Final GDP data for Q3 will be out tomorrow.

It is expected that the economy will grow by 3% this year and 2.8% next year, the best results since 2011.

The November Purchasing Managers' Index for the manufacturing sector recorded the highest reading in 19 years, suggesting very strong GDP growth in Q4 as well.

Manufacturing output is up 5% compared with last year and 18.000 jobs were created (+3%).

(I work in the manufacturing/export sector myself and the current orders are just staggering and nothing compared to previous years. We have a lot of orders from Germany and Scandinavia right now.)

http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/Austria-s-Manufacturing-Growth-Quickens-In-November-1009915255

The deficit (based on numbers until October) will likely come in at 0.8% of GDP (down from a deficit of 1.6% last year).

Debt as a percentage of GDP should go down to 79% (from 84% last year) and is projected to reach 65% by 2022 (when the ÖVP/FPÖ term is finished).

Unemployment was 5.4% in October (down from 6% last October).

So, ÖVP/FPÖ are definitely starting their term with the economy booming.

[Tender Branson]

Final GDP data for Q3 will be out tomorrow.

Q3 GDP has grown by 3.2% compared with last year.

The Q2 number was revised up to 2.7%, while the Q1 number stayed at 3.2%

Q4 will be very strong as well, so growth for 2017 as a whole might be 3.0-3.2% (which would be faster than Germany and the EU).

Link

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-FPÖ government will either be sworn in on Dec. 13, Dec. 20 or on Jan. 8 - depending how fast they can resolve the final big hurdles such as direct democracy.

http://mobil.derstandard.at/2000068862157/Grosse-Brocken-bei-Koalitionsverhandlungen-sind-noch-ausstaendig

Norbert Hofer will likely become Minister for Infrastructure and has said he won't shave his beard until the coalition is sworn in.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ presented their common education platform today (nothing really controversial):

http://derstandard.at/2000068669389/Lehrer-sollen-kuenftig-nach-Leistung-bezahlt-werden

Some points:

* more funding for kindergartens + elementary/middle schools and kids (to screen for and help talents early on), strengthening of social and creative skills of students.

* teaching kids Austrian/Western/liberal values early on, from kindergarten. Children from (Muslim) migrant backgrounds will have to pass a level of German before entering elementary school, or take additional German lessons if they are not passing that basic level after 2 years of kindergarten. If migrant parents with a potential radical background do not send their kids to school or tell them not to shake hands with female teachers etc., welfare benefits of these parents will be cut.

* more comprehensive, all-day schooling (to help out working moms in the afternoon)

* teaching kids more economic/entrepreneurial competence in school, such as e-learning, digital media, coding and how to create/run a business ...

* stricter controls of Muslim kindergartens and if necessary ... they will be shut down, if they do not follow state guidelines. Kindergarten lead teachers will need to have a mandatory university degree and outside financing (from Turkey, Saudi Arabia) will be banned.

* teachers will be rewarded if they produce good educational results among their students and teachers will have to take mandatory skill enhancement courses throughout the year to remain up-to-date.

I think that's unconstitutional, both according to Austrian constitution and EUHRC.

anyway fair play to FPÖ, unlike their Afd\FN\Ukip counterparts they actually look like a party capable of governing.

What do you think is unconstitutional ?

Parents not sending their kids to school ? Or that the government can cut their welfare, if they refuse to send their kids to school ?

Child benefit are meant for children, taking them away due to misconduct by parents is punishing by proxy and hurtful to right of self-respect as Germanic courts tend to interpret it (not using someone as means).

We had a similar case here a decade ago where Bedouin refused to give their children vaccinations and they wanted to cut down on their benefits, but it was deemed unconstitutional

It's more about the general welfare payments I guess, not necessarily the child benefits alone. It remains to be seen if they can enforce this, or if a court will strike it down.

But there should definitely be a crackdown on radical parents like this. At best, deport them.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP+FPÖ today presented a very "green" coalition platform for climate change, renewables, environment and animal rights:

http://derstandard.at/2000068896282/Bis-2030-soll-gesamter-Strom-aus-erneuerbarer-Energie-erzeugt-werden

Until 2030, ÖVP/FPÖ wants Austria to become a leader on renewables (it already is now) and wants the total electricity consumption to be from renewables (mostly water and wind here).

ÖVP/FPÖ wants zero electricity production (or imports) from nuclear energy and coal.

Via Google Translate:

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