Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

Polls close in slightly over an hour (in fact, most polls in small towns have already closed).

No rumours so far, not even on Twitter.

It seems the poll workers are following the embargo procedures really carefully since the Presidential election was overturned ...

You can watch the first projection live here at 5pm:

http://tvthek.orf.at/live/ZIB-Spezial/13952383

Thanks for the response on Pilz.

Why do some polling stations close earlier than others? That seems like an odd system.

Cities can set their own opening an closing times, but all have to close at 5pm.

Small town voters mostly vote between 8am and 1pm, so for the officials there it's a waste of time to keep polls open longer.

[Tender Branson]

With the Tyrol election done, the next state election is already ahead:

Carinthia on Sunday.

Turnout is projected to be much higher there compared with the Tyrol state election (75% vs. 60%), because the Tyrol election was already a done deal.

The Carinthia election is the first after the abolition of the Proporz-system there, which means a coalition has to be formed for the first time - rather than all parties above 10% being automatically in the state government.

Also, the latest OGM poll shows many outcomes are possible on Sunday:

* an absolute SPÖ-majority
* a slight majority for FPÖVP, but only if no small party crosses the 5% threshold
* SPÖ-ÖVP
* SPÖ-FPÖ
* SPÖ-TK
* SPÖ-Greens (if they beat the polls like in recent elections)

The SPÖ-Carinthia is in a very comfortable position right now, just like Platter and the ÖVP is in Tyrol now.

They can pick and choose whoever they want.

It is also the first election after Jörg Haider/FPÖ's HYPO bank debacle and followup:

Carinthia's HYPO bank was a bloated beast at around 2010, piling up a lot of bad loans and the Austrian state had to bail Carinthia out because of it. The HYPO was transformed into the HETA bad bank and was winded down in the past years. This pushed up Carinthia's debt a lot, but was of course the right thing to do (by the new SPÖ-ÖVP-Green government). Meanwhile, under the leadership of Governor Peter Kaiser (SPÖ), Carinthia has a balanced budget again and is already paying down the massive debt.

An important election topic is missing in the state and while Carinthia is struggling with rural population loss and outmigration of young people to the bigger cities, Graz and Vienna - the SPÖ-led government has still managed to bring more investments into the state and the economy is generally good. Unemployment is high, but falling.

I think the election will just show Carinthia reverting back to its old roots of being a strong Social Democratic state and the outcome will likely be similar (more-or-less) to the 1989 state election.

[Tender Branson]

This week, ÖVP-FPÖ will introduce their motion to kill the smoking ban in parliament:

http://orf.at/stories/2427991/2427992

The total smoking ban was passed by the previous SPÖVP government and would take effect on May 1.

Despite a very popular petition drive to go ahead with the ban on May 1 (more than 400.000 signatures were collect in the past 2 weeks), ÖVP-FPÖ are simply ignoring this, saying that "this is what we have agreed to in our coalition contract".

While the FPÖ fully supports it, the ÖVP is mixed on this issue (or even leaning against): many Governors and politicians from the ÖVP have recently spoken out in favour of the total smoking ban. But because of their coalition contract, they will still go ahead and kill it ...

A final parliamentary vote is expected in mid-April.

[Tender Branson]

New poll (Public Opinion Strategies) for the April 22 Salzburg state election here:

37% ÖVP (+8%)
23% FPÖ (+6%)
21% SPÖ (-3%)
  9% Greens (-11%)
  7% NEOS (+7%)
  1% FPS (+1%)
  1% SBG (+1%)
  1% Others (-9%)

http://www.krone.at/1650704

The FPÖ-Salzburg has the only female state party leader and the youngest as well. Plus, she's only in office for about a year, but has apparently impressed Strache and Hofer so much that she was also elected to the Austrian parliament and became the FPÖ's federal general secretary.

[Tender Branson]

The double budget 2018-19 will be presented in parliament on March 21.

ÖVP-FPÖ said today that 2018 will see a planned 0.5% deficit and 2019 a balanced budget. And this including 2 Bio. € of tax cuts and child tax credits.

http://orf.at/m/stories/2428153

[Tender Branson]

With both.

GDP growth is expected to remain high this year which will lead to additional tax revenues, but they also announced small cuts across the board in each ministry. Details should be available in 3 weeks.

[Tender Branson]

The ORF has more:

While spending cuts will amount to 2.5 Bio. € (out of some 75 Bio. € total budget spending), it seems the Labour Ministry will see the biggest cuts: 588 million. And within Labour, especially the Labour Market Agency, which is responsible for job trainings etc.

While the AMS (= Labour Market Agency) base budget will only be cut by 3%, there will be deeper cuts for refugees (German lessons, job trainings, integration courses etc.) and long-term unemployed, as well as older unemployed. For this, funding for the "20.000+" programme that was initiated by the SPÖ/Chancellor Kern and passed last year, will be cut from 540 to 110 million € per year. At the start of their government, ÖVP/FPÖ wanted to kill that programme completely - but it seems they are now keeping some of the funding (after an outcry from labour experts and the opposition).

Still, it seems that ÖVP/FPÖ's goal is to reduce the budget for labour market policy, because they think that A) the economy is good enough right now to produce a healthy number of jobs without state subsidies and B) want to encourage more people to enter the labour market again, by lowering the amount of funds for training. Especially for foreigners and long-term unemployed.

In other words: ÖVP/FPÖ want to hit these groups hard with their budget, so that families with kids and low-income earners can benefit from their tax cuts/tax credits.

http://orf.at/#/stories/2428186

[Tender Branson]

Fun side fact:

The last time Austria had a budget-surplus was in 1962 !

57 years ago (assuming the 2019 ÖVP/FPÖ budget will indeed have a small surplus).

https://diepresse.com/home/meinung/kommentare/5379364/Hurra-ein-Nulldefizit

Actually, during the early 2000s then Finance Minister Karl-Heinz Grasser (during the former ÖVP/FPÖ government) at one point also declared a budget surplus. But this was slightly revised down to a deficit later on by STATISTICS Austria ...

[Tender Branson]

Still, it seems that ÖVP/FPÖ's goal is to (...) encourage more people to enter the labour market again, by lowering the amount of funds for training.

How does this work, exactly?

By a shift in policy away from state-funded job training and subsidies to a more business friendly environment apparently. Less money for job training, but more money for small businesses and startups (ÖVP/FPÖ plan to reduce the corporate tax in the next years) and already passed the reduction of the tourism tax for overnight stays that companies have to pay.

You can watch Kurz and Strache's joint Facebook message from today here, in which they called for a "slimmer, more effective state":

https://derstandard.at/2000075112435/Kurz-und-Strache-planen-Nulldefizit-2019

[Tender Branson]

With only a few days left until the important Carinthia state election, the FPÖ has given up on winning the election there:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/kaernten-fpoe-gibt-duell-mit-spoe-auf-hofft-auf-oevp/312.232.059

Their goal now is "26% or more". I don't even believe they will break 25% on Sunday (which would be 15-20% behind the SPÖ). It would also be a bad result, considering the FPÖ won Carinthia in the federal election in October.

The FPÖ's only hope left right now is that no small party gets above the 5% threshold and that the FPÖ and ÖVP combined are stronger than the SPÖ.

But it would be hard to sell an FPÖVP coalition (with just a slim majority) to the voters and sideline the big election winner SPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Here are some results maps by city from the Sunday state election in Tyrol:

[Tender Branson]

Interesting developments:

* The Greens in Lower Austria are deciding tomorrow if they are challenging the January state election results in court. They have already prepared their lawsuit (they think that the electoral law was used arbitrarily). Lower Austria is one of two states which also allow voters with a secondary residence in the state to vote (many people from Vienna have a vacation home in Lower Austria for example). Town clerks used letters to determine which people are in fact spending enough time in the state to be added to the voter list. If no response came back after several letters, these people were purged from the voter list. About 18.000 people were removed.

https://kurier.at/chronik/niederoesterreich/noe-gruene-haben-wahlanfechtung-vorbereitet/312.285.076

* In Tyrol, the FPÖ is thinking about challenging the Sunday state election there. The FPÖ lost their 6th seat in the state parliament to NEOS - by 16 votes. The FPÖ is not saying there was vote fraud or something, just the possibility that some votes were miscounted ...

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/tirolwahl/5378712/TirolWahl_FPOe-prueft-Neuauszaehlung

[Tender Branson]

Kurz was in Russia today and met with Putin:



They talked about various issues (Syria, Ukraine, trade etc.) and Kurz said that Austria would be willing to send our army to Eastern Ukraine as part of peacekeeping there.

On the Russia sanctions, Kurz was playing along the official EU-line (while FPÖ-Strache wants them lifted).

On Syria, he told Putin to stop the bombings in Eastern Damascus and convince Assad as well.

Then, Kurz met with some Russian NGOs, while Putin said the ties between Russia and Austria are "excellent".

https://diepresse.com/home/ausland/aussenpolitik/5380160/Die-Gratwanderung-des-Kanzlers-im-Kreml

[Tender Branson]

Impossible not to note the continued absence of the Liste Pilz in these Land elections. Have they even done anything of interest in the Nationalrat since Pilz's resignation?

LiPi won't run in any of the state elections this year, because of a lack of organisation and money.

Maybe in the Vorarlberg election next year, the EU election and definitely in the Vienna election in 2020.

As for their "work" in parliament, it should be noted that the Nationalrat only had one meeting so far this year, but from what I have read they sent out press releases for the legalisation of medical pot to relieve pain, are in favour of the current smoking-ban petition drive, call for a strict investigation into far-right fraternities linked to the FPÖ and are boycotting the hearings for the 2 new Constitutional Court nominees from the FPÖ.

There was another session of parliament today, in which ÖVP-FPÖ introduced their plan to kill the smoking ban and also debated other issues, such as the new surveillance and security package.

The List Pilz MPs protested against it, wearing masks of FPÖ-Interior Minister Kickl and posters ("No to surveillance."):

[Tender Branson]

Is it still called Liste Pilz? I would've thought they would have wanted to distance themselves from him by now.

They are probably re-naming in the next few months ... (but Peter Pilz has said he will try a comeback by fighting the sexual abuse allegations in court and by taking a seat in parliament, which he won and then refused to take. But none of the current MPs is willing to stand down for him so far. It's a well-paid job after all, 8.800€ per month 14x per year ...)

[Tender Branson]

For German-speakers:

Here are 2 very interesting background stories from the broadcaster ORF on the upcoming Carinthia state election on Sunday, focusing on the rural population loss in the state and how the regions struggle because of it:

http://meins.orf.at/land-ohne-leute

http://orf.at/stories/2427333/2426362

Plus: postal ballot requests have risen by about a third compared with 2013, suggesting that turnout will indeed be much higher than in Tyrol last Sunday. Maybe 73-77%.

[Tender Branson]

Very hilarious BREAKING NEWS today:

Ex-Green Party leader Eva Glawischnig took a management job at gambling company Novomatic on Thursday !

This after the Greens for years have battled gambling companies who they accuse of a massive increase in gambling addiction and financial ruin of people.

It's almost like Jill Stein becoming leader of the NRA or Barack Obama leader of the KKK ...

https://derstandard.at/2000075324397/Ex-Gruenen-Chefin-Glawischnig-bei-Novomatic

And very bad news for the Greens in the Carinthia state election on Sunday (but their chances to re-enter the state parliament there have already been close to zero before the Glawischnig-story ...)

[Tender Branson]

Very hilarious BREAKING NEWS today:

Ex-Green Party leader Eva Glawischnig took a management job at gambling company Novomatic on Thursday !

This after the Greens for years have battled gambling companies who they accuse of a massive increase in gambling addiction and financial ruin of people.

It's almost like Jill Stein becoming leader of the NRA or Barack Obama leader of the KKK ...

https://derstandard.at/2000075324397/Ex-Gruenen-Chefin-Glawischnig-bei-Novomatic

And very bad news for the Greens in the Carinthia state election on Sunday (but their chances to re-enter the state parliament there have already been close to zero before the Glawischnig-story ...)

I also need to add that virtually all her former party colleagues are "shocked" by her decision to take the new high-paid job in the gambling business and many are attacking her because of it:

http://orf.at/stories/2428590/2428599

Meanwhile, Glawischnig quit the Green Party as well - while the party says they will continue to attack Novomatic and other gambling companies in the future ...

[Tender Branson]

FPÖ-leader Strache loses another court battle:

Austrian court says it's fine to give the middle finger to far-right Vice-Chancellor Strache

[quote]VIENNA - A court has upheld the right of Austrians to give the leader of the country’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) the finger, officials confirmed yesterday.

Heinz-Christian Strache had accused the far-left group “Linkswende” of slander after they published a video before last year’s elections featuring supporters giving their reasons for saying “F**k Strache” whilst showing their middle fingers.

Strache lost an initial judgement in the case in December and yesterday officials confirmed to the APA news agency that his appeal before Vienna’s Higher Regional Court had been rejected.

Linkswende spokesman David Albrich called the decision “a victory both for freedom of speech and of the press”.

After last year’s elections Strache’s FPÖ entered government as a junior partner to the centre-right People’s Party (ÖVP) of Chancellor Sebastian Kurz and Strache himself became vice-chancellor. — AFP

https://www.afp.com/en/news/826/austrians-keep-right-give-far-right-finger-doc-11k0ag1

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz attacks Trump:

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http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-03/02/c_137011562.htm

[Tender Branson]

The official FPÖ election posters and billboards for the Carinthia state election tomorrow are surprisingly inconspicuous for a far-right party:

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[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is lowering expectations for the Carinthia state election tomorrow:



At their final campaign event, Strache said that "anything above 20%" would be a "big success".

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/kaerntenwahl/5381952/Wahlabschluss_FPOe-holt-Strache-als-Mutmacher-nach-Kaernten

Remember that the FPÖ won Carinthia in the federal election in October with 32% ...

[Tender Branson]

10 years after the deadly car accident (?) of popular and controversial far-right populist Governor Jörg Haider, the state of politics in Carinthia is back to normal.

It is so normal right now, that the "most important" election topic a week ago were these little things:

Otters



Carinthia's otters are increasingly a threat to the fish population in rivers and lakes and fishermen want them decimated.

FPÖ+ÖVP+TK are supporting the measure, but SPÖ+Greens are blocking it. While the Greens are arguing with animal rights concerns, the SPÖ is neutral for now and delaying the decision to the next government (which could see an absolute majority for them and they could deal with the issue as they want).

https://tech2.org/austria/spo-extends-closed-season-for-otters

https://kurier.at/chronik/oesterreich/spoe-verlaengert-schonzeit-fuer-fischotter/311.876.699

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is lowering expectations for the Carinthia state election tomorrow:

Is the right person (no pun intended) Andreas Gabalier?

Nope.

It is Gernot Darmann, the leader of the FPÖ-Carinthia.

[Tender Branson]

But I think Gabalier is an FPÖ supporter, too?

He shares many of their views yes. But not sure if he ever publicly supported them.