Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

My preliminary prediction for Lower Austria's state election in 4 weeks:

48.5% ÖVP (-2.5%)
24.0% SPÖ (+2.5%)
18.5% FPÖ (+10.5%)
  5.0% NEOS (+5.0%)
  4.0% Greens (-4.0%)

I believe that most former TS-voters (10%) will go to the FPÖ, while many former Green- and KPÖ-voters will lift the SPÖ slightly, as well as NEOS (who will also gain from the ÖVP).

Considering the 4%-threshold in Lower Austria, the Greens are fighting for their survival. If they are in, the ÖVP would have no absolute majority in my prediction. If they are out, the ÖVP could govern alone.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP/FPÖ have just killed 2 of the main policies from former Chancellor Kern, effective yesterday:

* the job creation bonus
* the employment programme for unemployed aged 50+

http://derstandard.at/2000071308023/Regierung-stellte-Beschaeftigungsbonus-und-Aktion-20-000-ein

The SPÖ is going crazy on Twitter and elsewhere ...

[Tender Branson]

What are the possible benefits of killing those two programs? They seem to actually go about impacting issues in society and would likely be very popular...

The benefits would be savings, mostly.

ÖVP/FPÖ argue that the state-funded employment/hiring bonus and the 50+ programme are not needed anymore because the economy is booming and jobs are created in record numbers right now anyway. So, by scrapping them the state can save some 500 million to 1 Bio. € each year. The SPÖ argues that these programmes, which they initiated, helped long-term unemployed back into the job (especially long-term unemployed over the age of 50, who basically never find a job again) and lowered unemployment in general. They also attack the FPÖ as a flip-flopping party, who backed measures to help "the small man" before the election, but are now acting 100% pro-business and anti-debt instead.

[Tender Branson]

So what kind of parties are Vorwärts Tirol and Fritz?

ÖVP-splinters. Parties with people who originated in the ÖVP, worked for the ÖVP most of their lives and then got into some disputes with the ÖVP-leadership on various different topics.

Fritz for example focuses on transit (= Tyrol having a massive traffic and congestion and fine particle problem with trucks going from Germany to Italy via Tyrol and vice-versa). Often, these single-issues are enough for them to remain in the state parliament, but even Fritz is having a hard time now, because the ÖVP is popular again and NEOS are also competing for their voters.

Vorwärts Tyrol and their splinter Impuls have both collapsed and won't make it into the next state parliament anymore (I think it's even possible they won't run anymore).

[Tender Branson]

I was bored, so here are the recent election results in Austria, minus the 5 biggest cities (Vienna, Graz, Linz, Salzburg and Innsbruck. They usually account for ~26% of the eligible voters and around ~25% of all valid votes cast, because turnout is slightly lower in big cities):

* BCL Austria = big-city-less Austria

* BC Austria = big-city Austria

2017 Parliament (October)

BCL Austria: 34.3% ÖVP, 27.6% FPÖ, 24.8% SPÖ, 4.8% NEOS, 3.5% Pilz, 3.0% Greens, 0.9% GILT, 0.5% KPÖ

BC Austria: 33.1% SPÖ, 23.1% ÖVP, 21.1% FPÖ, 7.1% NEOS, 6.7% Pilz, 6.1% Greens, 1.5% KPÖ, 0.9% GILT

Actual result: 31.5% ÖVP, 26.9% SPÖ, 26.0% FPÖ, 5.3% NEOS, 4.4% Pilz, 3.8% Greens, 0.9% GILT, 0.8% KPÖ

Turnout was 76% in the big cities and 82% in BCL-Austria (80.0% in total)

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2016 President (December runoff)

BCL Austria: 50.4% Hofer, 49.6% VdB

BC Austria: 65.6% VdB, 34.4% Hofer

Actual result: 53.8% VdB, 46.2% Hofer

Turnout was 72% in the big cities and 75% in BCL-Austria (74.2% in total)

---

2016 President (May runoff)

BCL Austria: 54.1% Hofer, 45.9% VdB

BC Austria: 63.2% VdB, 36.8% Hofer

Actual result: 50.3% VdB, 49.7% Hofer

Turnout was 70% in the big cities and 74% in BCL-Austria (72.8% in total)

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday, Chancellor Kurz met with PM Rutte (Holland) to watch the New Year's Concert in Vienna and to talk about Austria's EU-presidency in the 2nd half of 2018 and Brexit talks.

Rutte was the first head of government to be invited by Kurz.



In the next days, the ÖVP/FPÖ coalition will retreat to a castle in Styria to work out their legislative agenda for this year, among them a tax relief for small- and medium-income workers, slashing state spending and wasteful bureaucracy to achieve a balanced budget, indexing child-benefits of non-Austrian parents to the levels of their home countries (which are often far lower than Austrian child benefits) and working on the climate strategy for 2030 (= 100% renewables).

Then, in mid-January, Chancellor Kurz will head abroad for the first time meeting with President Macron, followed by Chancellor Merkel. Notice how Kurz doesn't meet with Merkel first ...

http://derstandard.at/2000071345585/Kurz-reist-zu-Macron-dann-zu-Merkel

[Tender Branson]

Good news from the labour market:

At the end of December, 444.000 people were registered as unemployed or in training programmes (& receiving unemployment money).

That's 28.000 fewer people than a year before (-6%). But still much higher than the 300.000 unemployed about 10 years ago, before the financial crisis.

On the other hand, 81.000 new jobs have been created over the past year and employment has reached a new high. (In US-terms, that would be a monthly job report gain of some 250.000 new jobs created).

The ÖVP-FPÖ government wants to re-structure unemployment money, so as to encourage more employment: For people who have paid long into the system before, unemployment money will remain high and will be paid out for a long time. For those who have never paid into the system so far (such as university students, foreigners or young people in general etc.), they will only receive unemployment money for a shorter period of time anymore. Therefore they are being nudged into the labour market.

That pretty much resembles the mindset of the workaholic Kurz: If you are young, you have to work, or look after your own. And not the state. If you are a foreigner, you have to work. Or leave the country. Don't expect much from the state.

[Tender Branson]

Budget and debt data until November was released today.

It seems that the budget deficit for 2017 was somewhere between 0.5-0.7% last year, down from 1.6% the year before.

Debt as a % of GDP was ~79.6% (down from 83.6% the year before). Year-end numbers are out in March.

The significant reduction was possible because of the strong GDP growth (3% or more in real terms and some 4.8% in nominal terms). GDP is now some 370 Bio. €, up from 353 Bio. € the year before.

If the fast growth continues over the next few years, it's definitely possible that debt is going down further to around 60% of GDP (especially with a balanced budget or small surpluses).

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP-FPÖ are back to work after the Christmas/New Year holidays.

At a 2-day work retreat in Styria, they presented a cut in child benefits today for foreign parents who work in Austria, but who have their kids abroad. These cuts mostly target workers from Eastern Europe. The new child benefits will be lowered to the average cost of living in the workers home countries. As they are far lower than child benefits in Austria, it is expected that the state will save a few hundred million € each year because of it, which can be used to finance the first small tax cut this year for low-income earners.



The EU is looking into it, because previously they have found a cut like this against EU laws - but Kurz & Strache said the measures are based on legal experts who think the EU Commission might OK them.

http://derstandard.at/2000071450581/OeVP-und-FPOe-kuerzen-Familienbeihilfe-fuer-Kinder-im-Ausland

Tomorrow will be mostly about finding new savings for the 2018-19 double budget, such as in administration and bureaucracy.

[Tender Branson]

Here's the English article:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-austria-politics/austrias-new-government-plans-to-cut-child-benefits-abroad-idUSKBN1ET1RB

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Also, FPÖ-leader Strache said today that he favours semi-internment of asylum seekers in secured areas of army bases, where they would wait for their asylum applications to be processed.

ÖVP-FPÖ in general want to get rid of any privately organized housing for asylum seekers, because they think asylum seekers would have it too comfortable there and would integrate there to the point it would be hard to deport them after their asylum request is denied.

ÖVP-FPÖ rather prefer that asylum seekers do not get used to the country in the first place, be housed in large quarters for the 6-12 months it takes to process their application and if denied - you can better deport them. They also argue that if there's a curfew in place (such as between 9pm to 6am), crime would drop. Asylum seekers would also have to register when they leave the army base and when they return. Or be deported. That's on top of asylum seeker's phones and cash being confiscated when entering the country, to pay for their stay. Plus, a reducation of welfare payments. Instead, there's a focus on basic needs such as housing, clothes and food.

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/strache-will-asylwerber-in-wien-in-kasernen-unterbringen/304.979.332

ÖVP-FPÖ also have plans for a mounted police force for Vienna:

https://kurier.at/chronik/wien/plaene-fuer-berittene-polizei-in-wien/304.983.035

[Tender Branson]

Today was the last possible date for lists to file for the Feb. 25 Tyrol state election.

On the ballot statewide:

Landeshauptmann Günther Platter Tiroler Volkspartei (VP TIROL)
Sozialdemokratische Partei Österreich – Tirol (SPÖ)
Die Grünen - Die Grüne Alternative Tirol (GRÜNE)
Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs - die Tiroler Freiheitlichen (FPÖ)
Bürgerforum Tirol – Liste Fritz (FRITZ)
Family – Die Tiroler Familienpartei (FAMILY)
Impuls Tirol (IMPULS)
NEOS – Das Neue Tirol (NEOS)

https://www.tirol.gv.at/presse/meldungen/meldung/artikel/kreiswahlvorschlaege-fuer-landtagswahl-2018-eingereicht

[Tender Branson]

New Research Affairs/Ö24 poll for the Jan. 28 state election in Lower Austria:



Preferred coalition:



Direct vote for Governor:



How would Lower Austria vote in new federal elections right now ?



Actual 2017 result was:

36% ÖVP
26% FPÖ
25% SPÖ
  5% NEOS
  4% LiPi
  3% Greens

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Erste-NOe-Umfrage-VP-klare-Nummer-1/315964207

[Tender Branson]

The last 3 weeks since ÖVP/FPÖ were sworn in have seen many vague talking points among key players for radical changes or reforms, such as quasi-internment of asylum seekers with a night curfew (Strache), mass-quarters for them near Vienna (Gudenus), a new data-storage and online surveillance programme to combat terrorism and crime (Kickl) or the reform of unemployment money (more and longer payments for those who paid into the system for a long time, but a degressive payment system for others and, in the worst case, a switch to needs-oriented basic welfare money, in which the state can tap into the assets of unemployed as a form of recourse). This is a thing that Chancellor Kurz himself pushes heavily it seems and where even the FPÖ's new health and social minister Hartinger was initially against ("the state won't tap into assets of the unemployed"), but who later backtracked, saying "Of course, the Chancellor is right on this matter."

All of this is just talk right now (of course, the international media often likes to report about it as fact) and it remains to be seen what will really be implemented ...

Here's an overview of what ÖVP/FPÖ have already passed so far in the last 3 weeks in their cabinet council meetings + at their work retreat the last few days in Styria:



* lowering ancillary labour costs for small-to-moderate income workers as a first step towards a bigger tax cut in 2020. This small tax cut takes effect on July 1, 2018 and will be worth some 320€ on average for each worker.

* lowering child-benefit payments to foreign workers in Austria, who have their kids not in Austria but their home countries. The new child benefits will be indexed according to cost-of-living in the respective home countries, resulting in much lower payments for example to Hungarian workers - but also higher payments for workers who come from Switzerland, Sweden or Norway ... (these cuts will mostly finance the tax cut mentioned above).

* the preperation steps for passing the 2018/19 double budgets. The budget deficit will be 0.5% for 2018 and possibly a balanced budget for 2019 (assuming the economy remains strong). To achieve this, ÖVP/FPÖ agreed to look deeply into administration, bureaucracy, rent costs for objects who belong to the Republic, retirements in the state workforce etc. - which means mostly cutting spending in the state sector and bureaucracy by 2.5 Bio. €

* Also, de-regulation measures have been agreed on - making it easier for business to hire people, such as lowering the overnight stay VAT for the tourism industry from 13% to 10%. On the other hand, ÖVP/FPÖ also agreed to phase out the SPÖVP-introduced "(aged 50+) job creation bonus", calling it an unnecessary state subsidy at a time of high economic growth.

* A new energy/environmental policy, so that Austria's electricity production is 100% from renewable energy sources by 2030 (it is already among Europe's best countries in that regard).

* A child/family tax credit, starting on Jan. 1, 2019 and retroactively applies to the calendar year 2018. Families with kids can deduct 150€ per child when they file their taxes next year.

http://www.nachrichten.at/nachrichten/politik/innenpolitik/Harmonie-am-Schloss-Regierung-startet-mit-sechs-von-2-000-Massnahmen;art385,2779165

[Tender Branson]

* lowering child-benefit payments to foreign workers in Austria, who have their kids not in Austria but their home countries. The new child benefits will be indexed according to cost-of-living in the respective home countries, resulting in much lower payments for example to Hungarian workers - but also higher payments for workers who come from Switzerland, Sweden or Norway ... (these cuts will mostly finance the tax cut mentioned above).

Currently illegal under EU-law, so perhaps a new source of funding will have to be found in a year or two. Allowing this was actually a part of the renegotiation deal Cameron got with the EU (along with a bunch of other quite small, but really helpful changes), but since the British voted to leave, that deal did not materialize. Austria has indeed kept pushing for this to be legal, along with Denmark, Germany, Netherlands and Ireland, but it so far hasn't happened due to opposition from CEE countries and Commissioner Marianne Thyssen. Making it into law in Austria seems like another way too push for it to be legal in the EU, but also a quite big likelyhood that it will be deemed illegal by the ECJ in a year or three and create a hole in the budget. Hopefully the increased child payments in Poland and other countries as well as the wish to re-attract some of their workers in other EU countries could help reduce the opposition among CEE countries.

According to ÖVP-FPÖ and a review of EU-laws by legal expert Wolfgang Mazal, the cuts are in line with EU laws, mostly because aides and bureaucrats working for the EU parliament are also paid the salaries indexed to the cost of living in their countries of origin. The government thinks that the EUropean Courts will uphold it when this is taken into context:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://www.fpoe.at/artikel/ministerrat-beschliesst-anpassung-der-familienbeihilfe-ins-ausland/

[Tender Branson]

The debate about ÖVP/FPÖ plans to re-structure unemployment/welfare money is still ongoing ...

While both parties want some sort of change, it is mostly the ÖVP who wants to introduce some sort of (German) Hartz IV model in Austria. Currently, if you get unemployed you are getting the unemployment money for ca. 1 year, then you need to apply again. Plus the state is not tapping into your financial assets, so as to unnecessarily punish the long-term unemployed.

The ÖVP though is very eager to change this and nudge long-term unemployed into the needs-oriented basic welfare system (Mindestsicherung), which is already similar to the German Hartz IV system and in which the Austrian state already has to tap into the assets of reciepients. Only a small sum of a few thousand €s is currently allowed to be owned, plus a car.

The FPÖ (which still seems to have at least somewhat of a Social Democratic mentality left) is leaning against tapping into the hard-earned assets of long-term unemployed and simply wants to reform the payment structure and duration of how long someone can receive (the generally higher) unemployment money before falling into the welfare system (with mostly lower payments) and better personal coaching of the unemployed to find a job.

The compromise right now seems to be that Health and Labour Minister Hartinger (FPÖ) will work out a plan until the end of the year (she's personally against the financial recourse) and then the coalition will decide what to do next.

It's pretty interesting that just last year, the ÖVP (and the SPÖ) passed a law to get rid of the personal financial recourse in the care of elderly people. And now they want to tap into the financial assets of the long-term unemployed.

There are no polls out, but I guess Austrians are generally opposed or mixed to the idea of the state virtually disappropriating a person just because they are not finding a job. But I could be wrong. Maybe there are some polls out about this issue soon.

SPÖ, LiPi, Greens and the unions are calling the plans "anti-social" and a planned destruction of the Austrian welfare state and social partnership.

http://derstandard.at/2000071731618/Foglar-Abschaffung-schlicht-und-einfach-asozial

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Also: The List "Pilz" will head into a work retreat this weekend and already decide on a new name for their list. Plus, Peter Kolba, who's currently their interim parliamentary leader might be replaced at some point as well, as might party leader Peter Pilz.

http://derstandard.at/2000071705445/Peter-Pilz-bereitet-sein-politisches-Comeback-vor

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP has started their intensive campaign for the January 28 Lower Austria state election (one of 4 state elections in the next months and the one with the most eligible voters).

4.200 delegates were present at the launch event and the party had a kinda frightening line of attack against the SPÖ:

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(... the SPÖ is having posters up with "Lower Austria needs a second opinion.")

https://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/5350149/OeVP-Niederoesterreich_Wozu-braucht-es-eine-zweite-Meinung

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP-FPÖ government has passed the family/child tax credit in their common cabinet council today and even expanded it compared with their original version:

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/regierung-weitet-familienbonus-aus/305.724.469

After attacks from SPÖ, Greens, Pilz & Co., the government also decided to relieve single-mothers (& fathers), who often pay no income tax at all (because they mostly work part-time) and would therefore not be eligible for the child tax benefit. ÖVP-FPÖ also expanded it for families with university students older than 18. The tax cut will take effect on Jan. 1, 2019 - retroactively for the year 2018. My sister (2 kids) for example will get a tax cut of some 3000€ and my brother some 1500€. My family will benefit quite a lot from these new policies ...

[Tender Branson]

Vienna Mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) to officially retire on May 24:

http://derstandard.at/2000071834571/Haeupl-will-Ende-Mai-Job-als-Buergermeister-uebergeben

In 2 weeks already (Jan. 27), the Vienna-SPÖ and ca. 1000 party delegates will elect their new party leader. The main candidates are Andreas Schieder (backed by Häupl and the left-liberal inner-city SPÖ crowd) and Michael Ludwig (backed by the big, population-rich outlying districts and some important unions). I think Ludwig has a chance, but many delegates are still loyal to Häupl, even if voters in general think he's a "stubborn dinosaur glued to his seat" and worn out after 25 years in the office ... Will definitely be interesting to see who the SPÖ delegates are going to pick.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP/FPÖ-government has decided to raise* (I repeat: RAISE) the annual quota for non-EU immigrants + quota for family reunions + seasonal workers this year:

http://derstandard.at/2000071908843/Regierung-erhoeht-Quote-fuer-Zuwanderer-aus-Nicht-EU-Ausland

Initiated by Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ Interior Minister, who the international media called the "most extreme hardliner" in the cabinet ...

* by 320 persons.

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz to fly to Paris tomorrow to meet with Macron, then to Berlin next week to meet with Merkel, then a meeting with Orban in Vienna at the end of January, followed by the Munich Security Conference in February and a trip to Israel.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP/FPÖ-government has decided to raise* (I repeat: RAISE) the annual quota for non-EU immigrants + quota for family reunions + seasonal workers this year:

http://derstandard.at/2000071908843/Regierung-erhoeht-Quote-fuer-Zuwanderer-aus-Nicht-EU-Ausland

Initiated by Herbert Kickl, the FPÖ Interior Minister, who the international media called the "most extreme hardliner" in the cabinet ...

* by 320 persons.

Why?

Don't know really why. The quota is never met anyway, because Austria has an immigration surplus of at least 20.000 from non-EU countries every year.

But the funny thing is that while ÖVP-FPÖ agreed to raise the quota slightly, the SPÖ came out to attack it, especially the unions - saying it will lead to wage dumping ...

[Tender Branson]

Interior Minister Kickl (FPÖ) wants to "concentrate" asylum seekers in camps, until their asylum request is processed:

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http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-5259135/Austria-far-right-minister-says-concentrate-migrants.html

[Tender Branson]

A new Unique Research/Heute poll for the Jan. 28 Lower Austria state election:



http://www.heute.at/politik/news/story/Umfrage--Mikl-Leitner-koennte-Absolute-schaffen-42703866

There are still 2% of voters who say they are voting for "other" parties, even though there are no other parties on the ballot ...

[Tender Branson]

Kurz met Macron in Paris today and told him that with the UK out of the EU soon the EU-budget needs to be cut by 12 Bio. €, rather than compensating for Brexit with higher spending (which would target net-payers like Austria, Germany, Sweden, Netherlands etc.):

[Tender Branson]

The new Ö24/Research Affairs poll (Jan. 4-10, n=1.020, Online, MoE = +/- 3.2%) has no significant changes compared with the Oct. 2017 election results:



60% say they are happy with the work of the new government, 57% are happy with the cabinet.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Kurz-bleibt-vorne-Kern-holt-auf/316886860