Austrian Elections & Politics 4.0

[Tender Branson]

By a 52-39 margin, Austrian voters think Kurz will be a good/successful Chancellor.

96% of ÖVP-voters say so and 68% of FPÖ-voters.

70% of SPÖ-voters and 62% of NEOS-voters disagree (sample size was too small for Pilz-voters I guess).

https://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20171221_OTS0009/profil-umfrage-jeder-zweite-glaubt-dass-kurz-einen-guten-bundeskanzler-abgeben-wird

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP/FPÖ remain very stable at the top in the new Research Affairs poll out today:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Erstes-Zeugnis-fuer-die-Regierung/313984158

Also:

By a 77-15 margin, Austrians want to remain in the EU. Support has increased a lot (+15%) in the past year because of Brexit and Trump.

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Umfrage-Zustimmung-zur-EU-waechst/314057366

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll (Peter Hajek Public Opinion Strategies, Dec. 18-21):

31% ÖVP
28% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  5% Greens
  2% LiPi
  2% Others

Did ÖVP-FPÖ keep their campaign promises in their new coalition contract ?

46% Yes
29% No
26% Undecided

Which party was most able to include their policies into the coalition contract ?

26% the FPÖ
20% the ÖVP
32% both equally
22% Undecided

Who profits most from the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition programme ?

49% Companies/Employers
  9% Workers/Employees
24% both equally
18% Undecided

Finally, the poll asked which cabinet members were a "good" or "bad" choice. Except for Norbert Hofer (FPÖ), who gets an initial 44-35 rating, almost all new cabinet members are virtually unknown to the public (even though the ÖVP cabinet members all get higher favorables than unfavorables, while the FPÖ-members are polarizing at a low level). "Don't know them" + "Undecided" are in the 70s.

Link

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Kurz was visiting a hospital today, meeting with surgeons and nurses and handing out toys to children who have to spend Christmas at the hospital because of cancer etc.:

[Tender Branson]

Which of the main policies in the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition contract do Austrian voters approve of and which are they opposed to ?

From the new Research Affairs poll:



* Tougher penalties for criminals, such as murderers and rapists
* Increase the minimum pension to 1200€ per month
* Child tax bonus of 1500€ per child
* More direct democracy with a threshold of 900.000 petition signatures
* Welfare for foreigners only after 5 years of residence in Austria
* A re-introduction of the classic 5-grade system in schools, rather than verbal grading
* Slashing welfare payments to asylum seekers to 365€ per month (from 900€ now)
* Confiscating money and mobile phones from asylum seekers when entering the country
* Introduction of a school vacation week during fall (Oct. 26 to Nov. 2)
* Introduction of tuition fees for university students (500€ per semester)
* Less money for long-term unemployed
* Abolishing the full smoking ban in public (starting in May 2018) that SPÖVP agreed to earlier
* More work-day-flexibility, with a max. extension of daily working hours to 12

---

In general, Austrian voters are happy with the ÖVP-FPÖ coalition programme by a 52-36 margin:



And by a 55-34 margin, Austrians are happy with the new cabinet:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Zeugnis-2er-fuer-Tuerkis-Blau/314153860

[Tender Branson]

Another poll out today by the outstanding pollster OGM for the "Kurier" newspaper also shows that the new ÖVP-FPÖ government gets a positive initial rating from Austrian voters:



* 46% approve of the government programme, 21% are opposed.
* 53% say politics/the political climate will become better, 26% worse
* 30% say the FPÖ beat out the ÖVP (19%) in putting their policies into the coalition contract
* 56% approve of the many experts in the new cabinet, 32% disapprove
* 26% say the harmonic relationship between Kurz/Strache will only last a few months, 30% say one year and 22% say until the next election.
* Criticism against the Interior Ministry being awarded to the FPÖ is justified (44%) vs. not justified (39%)
* Voters rate the ÖVP cabinet team positively: by a 40-19 margin, voters approve
* Voters are mixed on the FPÖ cabinet team: 33% approve, 34% disapprove

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/neue-regierung-hat-ueberraschend-starken-rueckenwind/303.323.083

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll for the "Standard" newspaper:

33% ÖVP
27% SPÖ
26% FPÖ
  6% NEOS
  4% Greens
  2% LiPi
  2% Others

http://derstandard.at/2000070855353/Wuerde-jetzt-gewaehlt-werden-haette-OeVP-leichten-Rueckenwind

---

Also, for the Jan. 28 Lower Austria state election, 5 parties will run statewide (ÖVP, SPÖ, FPÖ, Greens, NEOS). The CPÖ and WfNÖ will only run in a few of the 20 or so districts, which means they are meaningless. For the first time since WW2, the KPÖ (Communists) won't run in a Lower Austria state election. List Pilz won't run either (they will also not run in the other 3 state elections early next year). Pirates and Team Stronach are also defunct.

[Tender Branson]

Here's an overview of the 4 state elections between Jan.-April 2018 + the one in South Tyrol in the fall:



Governors + coalitions (South Tyrol currently has a SVP/PD coalition)

[Tender Branson]

OGM/Kurier also asked if voters approve or disapprove of key ÖVP/FPÖ policy proposals and only the elimination of the total smoking ban is opposed:



53-22 approve: mandatory memberships in labour unions remain, but with reforms + lower fees
48-28 approve: more direct democracy starting in 2022 + referenda starting @ 900k signatures
49-26 approve: family (or child tax credit), 1500€ per child
64-27 approve: re-introduction of classic grading in schools, rather than verbal grading
48-32 approve: long-term unemployed money should be cut if they repeatedly refuse job offers
62-14 approve: needs-based minimum welfare should be cut and capped at 1500€ per family
47-35 approve: work-day-flexibility should be expanded to allow 12-hour-days
54-34 approve: re-introduction of university tuition fees (500€ per semester)

35-56 oppose: eliminating the total smoking ban in public that SPÖVP previously passed

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Sebastian Kurz walks & talks with President Alexander Van der Bellen in a park in Vienna today:







Nobody knows what they talked about ...

[Tender Branson]

 Wow, pretty nice to see one of my pet intrests (national initiative and referendum) actually being polled as to support level. Also the support level of the overall coalition policies and goals shows that pretty much most of the OVP and FPO electorate are pleased with the coalition so far.

Yeah, that's definitely the case. ÖVP-FPÖ starts with a strong mandate and only the Vienna-based leftist (+journalist) bubble (+Graz and other urban areas) are currently opposed.

But they are continuing to live in their own world right now, maintaining their naive worldview on immigration, whereas 2/3 of Austrian voters have clearly voted for a change and a rebuke of this ridiculous and dangerous immigration policy.

I think Austrians like the fact that the Left got trimmed to just 1/3 of the vote and are mostly concerned with getting a decent tax cut and less immigration from culture-hostile areas such as Africa and the Middle-East + more deportations of criminal foreigners. That's virtually all they want from the new government.

[Tender Branson]

The next 2 weeks will be very uneventful politically, because Austrian Politics will go into Christmas, New Year and Three Kings hibernation.

On Jan. 8th, the campaign for the Jan. 28th Lower Austria state election will start and ÖVP/FPÖ will head to a common work retreat in a Styrian castle to finalize their measures for 2018 (such as putting together a 2018-19 double budget, which will likely be passed in late April after all states have voted). There could also be a first small-to-modest tax cut and the child tax bonus could be passed as well (which can be filed later on with the 2019 taxes).

The 2017 deficit is projected to come in at 0.6-0.8% of GDP btw, so the double budget could see a 0.2-0.6% budget deficit for 2018 and maybe a balanced budget for 2019 ...

[Tender Branson]

Does the OVP/FPO have a similar proposal to increase the birth rate like other European conservative governments are doing? An example of this proposal is: http://nytlive.nytimes.com/womenintheworld/2016/02/11/poland-approves-monthly-benefit-for-families-to-bolster-low-birth-rates/

There's nothing specifically in their coalition contract that mentions "increasing the birth rate", but their planned child tax credit of 1500€ per child for families is probably targeting this issue.

In Poland for example, births rose 8% compared with last year - but deaths also rose by 8%, so there's still more deaths than births in the country. Anyway, these tax credits might be nice for families, but they are often a mixed bag: families like the cash infusion, but don't necessarily spend it on more kids, but rather on existing kids and other stuff. Therefore, the birth rates do not change significantly. If birth rates change at all, it's because of demographic changes - for example that a broader group of young women reach fertility age than the smaller groups before them, or if more immigrant women (with higher fertility) arrive in the country. For example, this helped push Austria's birth rate to over 10/1000 again recently.

[Tender Branson]

I recently went over the results maps of the Oct. 15 election again and noticed an interesting regional pattern:

If you combine the shares of ÖVP+FPÖ+FLÖ+CPÖ+EUExit+NBZ (= the more authoritarian-leaning parties) on a district basis and compare it with the 2013 results of ÖVP+FPÖ+Stronach+BZÖ+CPÖ+EUExit, you will notice that the "Right" gained some 4% between the elections Austria-wide.

But there are areas in which they gained significantly more and below-average (such as inner-city Vienna and other urban areas).

These changes mostly correlate not with unemployment rates or income/GDP-strength of these regions, but mostly with education levels.

In areas where ÖVP/FPÖ & Co. gained above-average between 2013-2017, the population's highest level of education is apprenticeship, whereas the urban/suburban areas have a much higher level of upper secondary or university educated voters.

I asked the poster "Georg Ebner" to create a district-level map to show this pattern to you.

[Tender Branson]

Austrian voters are starting into the new year with strong approval for ÖVP/FPÖ and their key policies, according to a new Market poll for the left-liberal "Standard" newspaper:

By a 53-33 margin, voters approve of the new government as a whole. 93% of FPÖ-voters approve and 84% of ÖVP-voters. As do big majorities of men and older voters.

On the question which party succeeded in putting their policies into the new coalition contract, 33% say the FPÖ and just 18% the ÖVP, while 41% say "both equally".

Especially voters from the FPÖ, the SPÖ and NEOS say that the FPÖ has succeeded with their issues.

The poll also asked voters about 14 key policy issues in the coalition contract (and the approval is similar to the OGM and Research Affairs polls earlier):

Voters strongly support 12/14 issues, while being opposed to eliminating the total public smoking ban and more work-day-flexibility.

Also, President VdB's approval rating is at 53-41.

ÖVP-voters approve of VdB by 56-42, FPÖ-voters disapprove by 90-7, SPÖ-voters approve by 75-18 and NEOS-voters by 92-8.

http://derstandard.at/2000071039515/Umfrage-Breite-Zustimmung-zum-Grossteil-des-Regierungsprogramms

[Tender Branson]

It seems ÖVP and FPÖ are heading into their victory laps during the coming 4 state elections ...

A new poll out today for the February Tyrol state election (GMK/Bezirksblätter) shows the ÖVP dominating there and with a chance for an absolute majority. And if they slightly fail to get an absolute majority, they can choose the Greens again (who are not collapsing as much as I thought), or choose the FPÖ, the SPÖ or NEOS as their coalition partners:



https://www.meinbezirk.at/land-tirol/politik/exklusive-umfrage-regierung-mit-gutem-zeugnis-d2357780.html

ÖVP+FPÖ+NEOS+Fritz+Impuls are at 77% together, while SPÖ+Greens are at just 22%.

That would be an even better result for the combined Right than at the federal election in October.

[Tender Branson]

I actually like the SPÖ-Lower Austria campaign for the January 28 state election:

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http://www.franz-schnabl.at

Schnabl, the SPÖ's frontrunner, is a retired police officer and his campaign is using - a sometimes funny - checks-and-balances approach against the dominating ÖVP there.

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[Tender Branson]

A new "TT.com" newspaper poll for the Feb. 25 Tyrol state election has both the ÖVP and FPÖ gaining a lot compared with the 2013 state election, while the SPÖ remains stable and the Greens, FRITZ and other parties are losing ground. NEOS, who didn't run in 2013, is right at the 5% threshold:



Here are the poll results, compared with earlier polls and the 2013 results:



Preferred coalition (currently, it's ÖVP+Greens):



Which parties do you trust most to solve the political issues in the state of Tyrol ?



http://www.tt.com/politik/13830551-91/schwarz-blau-hat-die-nase-vor-landtagswahl-in-tirol-klar-vorne.csp

[Tender Branson]

3 of the 14 Constitutional Court judges are to be replaced in the next weeks, because they reach the legal maximum age of 70 and will therefore retire.

The current Presiding Judge of the Constitutional Court will be among them and will be the first to be replaced (by the ÖVP/FPÖ government, which has the nomination right for the presiding judge).

The other 2 are to be nominated by the Parliament (1 by the National Council and 1 by the Federal Council, with hearings).

The FPÖ said before the election that their aim is to replace the 3 outgoing judges with at least 2 "FPÖ-leaning" ones (it remains to be seen if the ÖVP agrees).

http://derstandard.at/2000071171214/VfGH-Naechste-Woche-Ausschreibung-fuer-Praesidenten-und-zwei-Mitglieder

[Tender Branson]

New internal ÖVP-poll for the April Salzburg state election here:



Greens seem way too high. FPÖ too low. I also think the ÖVP will do better than that. A lot of former Green-voters will go to the ÖVP and NEOS this time. The SPÖ won't benefit as much from the Green loss here, because Salzburg-Greens tend to be more conservative.

[Tender Branson]

The new Finance Minister Hartwig Löger (ÖVP) has outlined first details about the coming 2018-19 double budgets, which are going to be passed in the spring.

He's planning for a 0.5% budget deficit for 2018 and a balanced budget for 2019 - and this despite the family/child tax credit kicking in in 2018 (= 1.500€ per child) and the lowering of associated wage costs for employers and employees (some 300€ per worker).

To achieve this, all cabinet members have to cut administrative spending by some 2.5 Bio. € and there will be some cuts to government subsidies (previously mentioned subsidies that might be cut involve the job creation bonus and the hiring programme for unemployed over the age of 50. ÖVP/FPÖ argue that these subsidies are wasteful right now, because the strong economy is creating new jobs anyway in record numbers. The SPÖ argues the job growth picked up because of it, not despite the subsidies.)



The "big" tax reform should take effect in 2020 then and will be at least 4 Bio. €, but Löger wants to keep the top tax rate for high-income-earners (55%) in place for solidarity reasons. The exact tax bracket re-structuring and relieve will be worked out over the next two years, but small and middle-income earners are the main focus of the coalition and will likely get the most relieve.

http://derstandard.at/2000071216235/Finanzminister-plant-2018-Kuerzungen-von-2-5-Milliarden-Euro

[Tender Branson]

Herbert Kickl (FPÖ) and the new Interior Minister, will enforce a new and stricter gun control law which takes effect on July 1 next year - banning the sale of high-capacity magazines for guns and rifles:

Under the new stricter gun law, gun-owners are only allowed to buy magazines containing no more than 20 bullets and a max. of 10 for rifles (currently most Glock magazines for example have 33-35 bullets).

https://kurier.at/politik/inland/rauchen-bezahlen-studieren-das-aendert-sich-fuer-uns-2018/303.300.424

Evil far-right-winger ...

[Tender Branson]

3 of the 14 Constitutional Court judges are to be replaced in the next weeks, because they reach the legal maximum age of 70 and will therefore retire.

The current Presiding Judge of the Constitutional Court will be among them and will be the first to be replaced (by the ÖVP/FPÖ government, which has the nomination right for the presiding judge).

The other 2 are to be nominated by the Parliament (1 by the National Council and 1 by the Federal Council, with hearings).

The FPÖ said before the election that their aim is to replace the 3 outgoing judges with at least 2 "FPÖ-leaning" ones (it remains to be seen if the ÖVP agrees).

Treating constitutional courts as appointed chambers of parliament is bad and politicians who do it should feel bad

The FPÖ argues that if 2 of the 3 to be appointed new judges are "FPÖ-leaning", it would represent society and the recent election results more closely.

But yeah, I agree, filling new posts on the CC should be done according to expertise (like it was done until now) and not along party leanings.

And even if the FPÖ presents FPÖ-leaning candidates, there's still some checks and balances such as the before-mentioned nomination rights from the government, the national council and federal council incl. hearings - and as a final say - President VdB has to swear in new judges or refuse to swear them in.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ condemns a (small) boycott-call published recently in the French newspaper "Le Monde":

Austrian far-right condemns international call for boycott of its cabinet members

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https://www.thelocal.at/20171229/austrian-far-right-condemns-international-call-for-boycott

[Tender Branson]

Here are the previous election results of the 4 upcoming state elections between Jan. 28-April 22: