OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Tender Branson]

Here are the benchmarks of what O'Connor needs to win the race, with the remaining 8.500 mail/provisional ballots:

If just half of them are valid, O'Connor needs to win some 71% of them.

If 5.000 of them are valid, O'Connor needs to win some 68% of them.

If 6.000 of them are valid, O'Connor needs to win some 65% of them.

If 7.000 of them are valid, O'Connor needs to win some 63% of them.

[Tender Branson]

IIRC, Hillary was down 9% in OH on election day - but final results showed her down "only" 8% - because she won a huge share of the remaining provisionals/mail ballots.

Currently, Balderson is up 0.9% - so it is definitely possible that O'Connor will close the gap.

It just remains to be seen if there are enough valid votes left from the 8.500 remaining ballots.

I think half of them are usually thrown out, which complicates things for O'Connor.

I think the best he can do now is to go out to the media and encourage his (provisional) voters to show up with an ID at the county offices to make sure their ballots are counted ...

[Tender Branson]

We won't know who "won" this race for another 2 weeks, because the 8.500 remaining provisional and mail ballots are only counted 10 days after the vote ...

[Tender Branson]

Why would you concede a race where you are down 1.500 votes, but there are 8.500 potential Dem-leaning ballots left to count ?

The one thing O'Connor should do now is to launch a strong media campaign to encourage his provisional voters to show up at their districts to present IDs, so that their votes are counted. The more provisional ballots are counted, the higher the chances for O'Connor to close the gap.

While I agree that the remaining ballots need to be very favourable for him to pull ahead, this is not the time to concede.

[Tender Branson]

If 7.000 of the 8.500 remaining ballots are valid and O'Connor wins 61% of them vs. 38% for Balderson, it's a totally tied race (or small advantage O'Connor).

O'Connor would gain 4.270 votes, Balderson 2.660, Manchik 70.

New overall results:

100.208 + 4.270 => 104.478 - O'Connor (49.73%)
101.772 + 2.660 => 104.432 - Balderson (49.70%)
    1.129 +      70 =>     1.199 - Manchik (0.57%)

[Tender Branson]

Another scenario:

If 84% of the remaining postal ballots are valid and O'Connor wins them by 56-43-1 and about 61% of the provisional ballots are valid and O'Connor wins them 74-25-1, it would also create a tied race.

O'Connor would net an additional 550 votes from the postal ballots and 1.100 votes from the provisionals - more than his current 1.564 deficit.

[Tender Branson]

This is funny:

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And this is not the only funny part ... he's also named O'Connor:

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https://www.cleveland.com/open/index.ssf/2018/08/libertarian_oconnor_wont_be_on.html

[Tender Branson]

...oh, wow. Okay, if this pattern holds, O'Connor could net a full 1000 votes from the remaining absentees. He would still need to win around 65% of the remaining provisionals to edge out Balderson, but that doesn't seem completely out of the realm of possibility.

I'd love to look like an idiot for saying it was over.

It would be good to know which percentage of provisional and late postal ballots usually end up being counted in OH.

I think I've read somewhere that in CA it's only 30% or something for provisional ballots ... (many people who voted without an ID simply don't have one at home or don't have the time after an election to return with an ID).

[Tender Branson]

Interesting news I found on the OH SOS page about the 2016 election:

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https://www.sos.state.oh.us/media-center/press-releases/2016/2016-12-01-b

There's some good news and some bad news buried in those numbers:

The good news is that we can expect a much higher number of provisionals to be counted than I thought (85%).

The bad news is that Hillary only did 6.4 points better with provisional ballots than she did in OH as a whole.

Adjusted for the O'Connor numbers, it would mean he'll end up with only 56% of provisional ballots.

Assuming a recognition rate of 85% for both the remaining postal and provisional ballots, O'Connor would need 61% though to close the gap ...

[Tender Branson]

Yesterday was the last possible date for provisional voters to verify their indentity by returning to their precincts with a valid ID.

[Tender Branson]

Bad news for O'Connor:

An OHio election expert says that while about 80-90% of the 3.500 provisional ballots will likely be counted as valid, he only expects some 20-30% of the remaining absentee ballots (5.000) to be counted:

https://www.nbc4i.com/news/local-news/absentee-provisional-ballots-will-be-counted-aug-18-to-determine-ohio-special-election/1357557347

[Tender Branson]

The O'Connor campaign just said they expect not more than 1.000 of the 5.000 remaining absentee ballots to be counted.

Those and the 3.000 or so valid provisional ballots are not enough to make up his deficit.

With just 4k votes left, he'd net only 800 more votes if he wins 60% of them.

That is only half he needs. It would bring him into re-count territory though.

https://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/oconnors-campaign-hopeful-for-a-recount-in-12th-district

[Tender Branson]

Estimated final results, based on what's left to count:

49.9% Balderson (R)
49.5% O'Connor (D)
  0.6% Manchik (G)

R+0.4

In 2016, it was R+37 and in 2014 it was R+40 (US House).

For President, it was Trump+11.

[Tender Branson]

From the OH SoS Twitter:

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So, the remaining votes won't be all counted today, but over the next week !

[Tender Branson]

If Danny O’Conner was smart he’d accept that he lost the special election, and devote his remaining resources to trying to win the general election. Sadly, it’s highly unlikely he’ll win the seat in November, because, if he couldn’t flip it in a august special election with low Republican turnout it’s highly unlikely he’ll flip it in a high turnout general election when more Republicans show up.

You do not understand how (wave) elections work.

Higher turnout usually benefits the wave party. It doesn't matter if 30% of Dems, 25% of Republicans and 20% Indys turn out in a special election, if also 50% of Dems, 45% of Republicans and 40% of Indys turn out in the general election.

What matters is how they end up voting ... if Independents break strongly for the Dems, they are winning in 10% turnout elections or 95% turnout elections.

[Tender Branson]

Any news so far ?

I guess they didn't start counting ballots yesterday ... on a Saturday. Probably tomorrow, right ?

[Tender Branson]

With only Franklin and Licking counties to certify their results today, Balderson currently leads by 1.966 votes:

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https://eu.marionstar.com/story/news/local/2018/08/24/balderson-extends-lead-congressional-race-ahead-friday-deadline/1078203002

[Tender Branson]

Considering that Franklin and Licking had roughly 2400 remaining ballots each and both had exactly the opposite election results on Aug. 7, I think the remaining ballots will cancel each other out.

Based on this, Balderson will likely win by 1.850-2.050 votes.

That would be a final margin of ~ 1% and not in re-count territory.

[Tender Branson]

Licking has reported their final results and Balderson gained a net 240 votes:

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https://eu.newarkadvocate.com/story/news/2018/08/24/licking-county-board-elections-certifies-special-election-results/1082975002

Balderson now leads by 2.206 votes (with only Franklin County left to report).

[Tender Branson]

The AP has finally called the race for Balderson:

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1033042839654084608

https://apnews.com/8494b01240ce4c108f15d55b2237199c/Ohio-state-senator-retains-GOP-hold-on-open-US-House-seat

[Tender Branson]

The FINAL results:

104.328 - Troy Balderson (R) - 50.12%
102.648 - Danny O'Connor (D) - 49.32%
    1.165 - Joe Manchik (G) - 0.56%

Balderson wins by 1.680 votes, or 0.8%.

(64 under-votes, => invalid votes)

http://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/public/documents/PDF/4230374C-0632-9D47-F1EA34E2FB6BDCDA.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Results of absentee/provisional ballots only, which were added after election day:

2.556 - Troy Balderson (R) - 50.80%
2.440 - Danny O'Connor (D) - 48.49%
     36 - Joe Manchik (G) - 0.71%

Balderson with a net gain of 116 votes.

He won them by 2.3 points, slightly better than his election day results.

[Tender Branson]

The FINAL results:

104.328 - Troy Balderson (R) - 50.12%
102.648 - Danny O'Connor (D) - 49.32%
    1.165 - Joe Manchik (G) - 0.56%

Balderson wins by 1.680 votes, or 0.8%.

(64 under-votes, => invalid votes)

http://vote.franklincountyohio.gov/public/documents/PDF/4230374C-0632-9D47-F1EA34E2FB6BDCDA.pdf

The bad thing now is: all of the media today is now declaring "Republican wins special election." or "Republican defends seat in OH."

... but only 1% of voters are aware of the HUGE swing to the Democrats in this election, which is the actual important story behind it.