German Federal Election - Sept. 24 - Results Thread

[Tender Branson]

Polls are opening in 40 minutes, which is 8am local time (2am East Coast).

They will close at 6pm local time (noon on the East Coast).

A first projection will be made by ARD and ZDF TV stations right at 6pm, which is an exit-poll of voters leaving their precincts. About 15-30 minutes later, they will make first projections which already includes come counted precincts. A final result can be expected at midnight.

We'll likely get some turnout reports as well during the day.

[Tender Branson]

Here are the most important links to election day results sources, live streams, news media etc.

http://www.wahlrecht.de/cgi-bin/forum/show.cgi?tpc=40&post=81199#POST81199

[Tender Branson]

Polls are now open !

[Tender Branson]

According to the Bundeswahlleiter page, they will publish 2pm turnout at ca. 3:30pm

[Tender Branson]

Turnout until 12:00 up significantly in major Bavarian cities:

Munich: +13% (!)
Nürnberg: +3%
Augsburg: +6%
Regensburg: +6%
Würzburg: +2%

These numbers include postal ballots.

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Berlin: +4% (not sure with or without postal ballots)

Hamburg: +2%

Bremen: +2%

Stuttgart: +0.5%

Potsdam: +4%

NRW (selected sample): +3%

Saxony-Anhalt: +4%

Saxony: no change

Thuriniga: -6.5% (!)

Lower Saxony: -1%

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Some of these reports might include postal ballots, others not.

Link

Link

[Tender Branson]

More turnout numbers for Baden-Württemberg (until noon):

Stuttgart: +4.3% with postal ballots

Freiburg: +6.8% with postal ballots

[Tender Branson]

I assume high turnout like this will work in favor of SPD?

No. Why ?

All the state elections also had higher turnout and the SPD collapsed ...

[Tender Branson]

More turnout numbers:

Mainz (13.00): +5.4% (incl. postal voters)

Frankfurt (14.00): +6.3% (I guess with postal voters)

[Tender Branson]

According to Tagesschau, turnout in cities is much higher than in rural areas compared to 2013.

How exactly do they know this, when basically all we have are turnout reports from cities ?

[Tender Branson]

My feeling is that Merkel wants to continue the grand coalition. Assuming she does, is there any scenario where she would have to form one with the FDP? Possibly internal pressure from the party?

No, basically if the SPD is beaten down to 20% today. In that case, it would be suicidal for the SPD to enter another Grand Coalition. They would be better off in opposition and re-structure for 2021, when Merkel is likely calling it quits.

[Tender Branson]

We should get the estimated 2pm turnout numbers for Germany soon.

Problem: They will very likely be without postal ballots. So if turnout is the same as 2013, it's probably up by some 5% in reality because of the postal surge.

[Tender Branson]

Merkel's district also having a significant uptick in turnout:

http://www.ostsee-zeitung.de/Vorpommern/Greifswald/Politik/Hansestadt-bisher-mit-hoher-Wahlbeteiligung

54% (incl. postal votes) until 2pm.

[Tender Branson]

It's 3pm.

Time for coffee and cake !

[Tender Branson]

Munich turnout for 2pm remains stunning:

71.6% (+14.5%)

[Tender Branson]

Germany-wide turnout (2pm):

41.1% (-0.3%)

... but that is without postal ballots, so it's probably 5% higher.

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[Tender Branson]

Or maybe ... higher turnout benefits ... every party ?

[Tender Branson]

Frankfurt could hit 80%:

[Tender Branson]

Munich turnout already at 79.8%.

I suspect ballot-stuffing, because this is ... unreal.

[Tender Branson]

My above comment was obviously a joke ...

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The state of Rheinland-Pfalz also reports high turnout (+8% compared with 2013, incl. postal ballots).

http://www.meine-vrm.de/politik/rheinland-pfalz/rheinland-pfalz-verzeichnet-deutlich-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung_18202453.htm

[Tender Branson]

The state of Rheinland-Pfalz also reports high turnout (+8% compared with 2013, incl. postal ballots).

http://www.meine-vrm.de/politik/rheinland-pfalz/rheinland-pfalz-verzeichnet-deutlich-hoehere-wahlbeteiligung_18202453.htm

Thats CDU territory at the national level...no?

14/16 states voted for CDU/CSU the last time, only Hamburg and Bremen for the SPD.

But the SPD is usually pretty strong in Rheinland-Pfalz as well.

[Tender Branson]

The turnout reports are increasingly showing similar results ... up by around 6-8% on average.

So, that would be 78-80% in the end - which would be back to 2005 levels.

[Tender Branson]

It looks like virtually everyone is voting today in Munich ... WTF ?

80% turnout at 4pm, with 2 hours to go ...

A voter-list (I guess W stands for Wahlkarte => postal ballot):

[Tender Branson]

Is there anything in Munich today that would explain the rise in turnout ?

79.8% with 2 hours to go. That is up by 16.6% compared with 2013 (!!!).

[Tender Branson]

Stuttgart is heading for 80% turnout, after 77% last time:

http://www.stuttgarter-nachrichten.de/inhalt.bundestagswahl-wahlbeteiligung-steigt-auch-in-stuttgart.d584cbfb-8e09-4eb0-9cbe-72ba00c70377.html

[Tender Branson]

*popcorn*