Germany Legalizes Gay Marriage (June 30, 2017)

[Tender Branson]

Same thing simultaneously here right now.

SPÖ+Greens+NEOS are pressuring the ÖVP to allow their MPs to vote freely on their joint SSM initiative that they will introduce in parliament tomorrow.

The ÖVP responds with:

"We do not comment on Germany's election campaign".

or

"We will present our own plans on SSM in our September election program."

or

"We have no pressure. This is a German-only thing."

---

Looks like the ÖVP won't vote with them tomorrow and the SPÖ has already hinted they could try again in September.

The "New" ÖVP with Kurz is not so new after all ...

[Tender Branson]

And isn't the ÖVP generally more conservative than the CDU? They probably are more comparable to the CSU on social issues from what I've read.

Depends on the issues I guess.

On gay marriage, the CDU and ÖVP are virtually the same. Among their voters, support is similar.

With Kurz, the ÖVP has become more like the CSU again though (taking a hard-line against immigration, integration etc.)

Anyway, SPÖ+Greens+NEOS have 84/183 seats in parliament. If all of their MPs vote in favour, it would take 8 of the 51 ÖVP MPs to vote in favour of a majority. Or 16% of the ÖVP parliamentarians.

[Tender Branson]

Because they're taking up the bill that's already been voted on by the Bundesrat, that means once this chamber votes on the bill, it becomes law, right?  (Once the President signs it of course)

Yes, the gay marriage bill which will be voted upon in the Bundestag this Friday was already passed by the Bundesrat in September 2015. Since then, it had been held up in committee.

The full text of the bill can be found her (in German)
http://dip21.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/18/066/1806665.pdf

According to Article 3, subsection 1, the bill takes effect on the first day of the third month after its promulgation (which happens after the president has signed it).

So, the earliest possible date the law would take effect is October 1.

October 1 would be great.

It would allow SPÖ+Greens+NEOS to renew their pressure on the ÖVP, during the height of our campaign ...

[Tender Branson]

New polls in both Germany and Austria show massive support for gay marriage:

Germany

INSA/Bild: 75% for, 20% against (adoption: 66-22 support)
YouGov: 66% for, 26% against (adoption: 57-33 support)

By party:

CDU/CSU: 73-22 support
SPD: 87-11 support
Greens: 93-5 support
Left: 84-15 support
AfD: 40-55 oppose (odd, because their frontrunner Alice Weidel is lesbian)
FDP: not asked

Austria

Unique Research/Profil: 70% for, 22% against (adoption is already legal in Austria)

[Tender Branson]

The gay marriage vote in the Austrian parliament just failed a few minutes ago, after an emotional debate.

All SPÖ+Greens+NEOS representatives voted in favour, all ÖVP+FPÖ+Team Stronach+Independents voted against.

After the vote, NEOS-MP Niki Scherak took to the podium, looked over to the ÖVP bench and called them cowards. The ÖVP MPs looked down on their smartphones and tablets ...

[Tender Branson]

Gay marriage vote currently underway in the German parliament.

Merkel just cast a red NO vote.

[Tender Branson]

Gay marriage vote currently underway in the German parliament.

Merkel just cast a red NO vote.

Votes being counted now. Takes about 10 minutes.

[Tender Branson]

393/623 voted Yes.

[Tender Branson]

226 No votes

4 abstentions and 7 not present.

[Tender Branson]

Merkel casts her NO vote:



HPs.

[Tender Branson]

Preliminary, it looks like some 80 of the 309 member CDU/CSU delegation voted YES.

[Tender Branson]

Vote by party:



Abwesend = Not present
Enthalten = Abstained
Fraktionslos = 1 former CDU member who's now Independent

---

25% of the 301 CDU/CSU members + 1 Indy who voted, voted for gay marriage.

24% of the total elected CDU/CSU delegation (310) voted for it.

[Tender Branson]

Who are the SPD and Left Party members who abstained?

They were not present in parliament.

Abstain means being present, but not vote.

These 2 representatives don't necessarily have to be against gay marriage just because they were not present. They could also be sick today and stayed home.

[Tender Branson]

Yes and No votes broken up between CDU and CSU. Yes vote among CDU deputies was 27%, among CSU deputies 13%.

This is worrying when it comes to how the ÖVP representatives would vote on this issue here, because I guess the ÖVP would probably vote closer to the CSU than the CDU.

In fact, 16% of ÖVP delegates would have to vote Yes in an open, free vote for a majority together with SPÖ+Greens+NEOS.

Also, SPÖ+Greens+NEOS welcomed the German vote today while FPÖ and Team Stronach said it is "a vote we have to accept" but there are "much more important issues facing Austria right now".

The reaction of the ÖVP on the German vote was particularly cowardly: "We don't comment on the German election campaign".

Yesterday, when all ÖVP-MPs voted against gay marriage in parliament and looked down on their smartphones and tablets (when a NEOS-MP spoke directly to them and accused them of being cowards without a conscience), they also argued that "the Constitutional Court has to decide this issue".

[Tender Branson]

Wasn't Hillary Clinton against marriage equality until it become popular?

Marriage equality is popular in Germany and Merkel still opposes it. Does anyone have an opinion poll on how CSU voters feel about gay marriage? All the polls I saw only show CDU or CDU/CSU.

All the polls only show CDU/CSU results.

The last poll I found that shows results for CDU and CSU individually is from March 2013 (!):

In this poll, CSU-voters backed gay marriage by a 52-40 margin. CDU-voters backed it with 55-41. And all German voters backed it by a 66-30 margin at that time.

http://www.t-online.de/regionales/id_62483324/homo-ehe-gleichstellung-von-mehrheit-der-csu-anhaenger-bejaht.html

[Tender Branson]

BTW:

Does anyone have an age-breakdown of MPs from the CDU/CSU that voted in favour and against ? I would assume that the ones who voted YES tend to be younger than the ones voting against.

[Tender Branson]

^^^

That's the same poll I posted 10 minutes ago ...

[Tender Branson]

Thanks for posting.

While the under-50 CDU numbers are bad, the under-50 CSU numbers are disturbing.

[Tender Branson]

Another interesting fact:

All Muslim MPs voted in favour of gay marriage today, while many Christian MPs didn't.

[Tender Branson]

Will this have any effect on the election?

Nope, because the good economic situation will eventually outweigh the gay marriage issue.

[Tender Branson]

How did the 35-or-so MPs with a migrant background vote ?

I guess overwhelmingly YES (like the Muslim MPs), because they are mostly from the center-left parties ?

[Tender Branson]

And now the all-important question:

How did the gay and lesbian MPs vote ?



I'm asking because Alice Weidel, the lesbian frontrunner for the AfD, is personally opposed to the introduction of gay marriage - because ... the constitution apparently says so.

[Tender Branson]

Only 5 of the ÖVP's 51 MPs are aged 40 or younger. Of which 4 are men (1 of Moroccan origin) and just 1 woman.

More than 90% of the ÖVP's representatives are old, Catholic Austrian men or women without migration background and mostly from rural areas.

The more I think about it, the more I believe their voting pattern would mirror the CSU.

[Tender Branson]

Soooo...why hasn't the President signed it yet?  Seems pretty odd to me.

Why would that be odd ?

It usually takes 3-4 weeks in Germany for a bill to be signed by the President and to be officially published in the federal law gazette.

If the President signs the law this month, the law will take effect 3 months later (starting with the 1st of a month). So, the earliest date for marriages would be October 1.

[Tender Branson]

The President has signed the law:

http://www.heute.de/bundespraesident-steinmeier-unterzeichnet-gesetz-zur-ehe-fuer-alle-47613920.html

Marriages will start on October 1.