Post your SC-05 predictions here (user search)
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Author Topic: Post your SC-05 predictions here  (Read 1408 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: June 10, 2017, 09:38:01 AM »
My prediction:

53.5% Ralph Norman (R)
43.3% Archie Parnell (D)
  1.6% Josh Thornton (A)
  1.0% Victor Kocher (L)
  0.4% David Kulma (G)
  0.2% Write-Ins

Norman (R) wins by 10.2 points.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: June 18, 2017, 07:04:56 AM »
I won't change my prediction for this one ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2017, 02:52:06 PM »
Quote from: Bring Back the Big Tent on June 19, 2017, 02:48:05 PM
https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/876880834392936448

New poll has Norman ahead by 9. 53-44.

That's a 6-point swing from 2016 and a much smaller swing from 2014 and 2012. What that tells me is that Parnell is effectively maxing out the Dem vote in this district, and there are very few Republicans voting for him.

It's actually an 11-point swing from 2016. Mulvaney won by more than 20 points last year.
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