UK General Election 2017 - Predictions Thread

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

46.3% Tories (+9.6%)
32.0% Labour (+1.5%)
  8.5% LibDems (+0.6%)
  3.8% SNP (-0.9%)
  3.7% UKIP (-9.0%)
  2.5% Greens (-1.3%)
  1.8% Various N.I. parties (-0.2%)
  0.6% Plaid Cymru (n.c.)
  0.8% Others

Turnout: 68.9% (+2.5%)

370 seats - Tories
202 seats - Labour
  47 seats - SNP
  18 seats - Various N.I. parties
    9 seats - LibDems
    3 seats - Plaid Cymru
    1 seats - Greens
    0 seats - UKIP

[Tender Branson]

I'll stick with my prediction of Tories+14% and +168 seats over Labour.

Labour usually always overpolls by a bit while the Tories underpoll.

Don't see why this shouldn't be the case tomorrow again ...

[Tender Branson]

if the polls do what the polls in the US did and underestimated wwc vote, could that be good for labor?

WWC turnout is already accounted for with a 75% turnout (on a 1-10 likelyhood to vote scale).

It won't go much higher than that ...

If Labour does surprise today, it will be more because of a comprehensive shift towards them from all population groups - as a form of protest vote against recent security flaws (May is the incumbent PM and has "failed" to protect the British public from these attacks). Even though the attacks can certainly not be blamed on her personally, the public might still "punish" her in some way even if they don't agree with Labour - not even to mention Corbyn ...

Still, the odds for this are low.

[Tender Branson]

Beautiful map.

But what is that white area northwest of London ?

[Tender Branson]

Thx.

Shouldn't the Speaker seat be blue as well ?

[Tender Branson]

At least I got the turnout figure right.

But I thought former UKIPers would break strongly for the Tories, which they didn't.

Plus some older rural voters were probably scared by May's care u-turn and more young people voted as well.