New poll hype thread (user search)
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Author Topic: New poll hype thread  (Read 94463 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« on: September 03, 2016, 08:21:56 AM »
PA and NC.

Plus results of an overall 11-swing state sample.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2016, 08:26:00 AM »
I predict C+5 in PA and T+1 in NC.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #2 on: September 08, 2016, 01:03:36 PM »
Quinnipiac:

2-way

FL: Hillary+1
NC: Trump+2
OH: Trump+1
PA: Hillary+6

4-way

FL: Tie
NC: Trump+3
OH: Trump+2
PA: Hillary+5
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #3 on: September 15, 2016, 03:49:35 AM »
New polls later today:

* NC (Civitas)
* TX (Texas Lyceum)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #4 on: September 15, 2016, 10:58:37 AM »
Trump should be up by at least 6 in GA now, maybe as much as 8 or 10 - if the poll was done in the last few days.

Definitely a lot of Trump-mentum going on recently.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2016, 02:14:00 AM »
It seems there are no new YouGov/CBS polls out today.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #6 on: September 21, 2016, 11:47:55 PM »
New CO poll out today:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/09/21/purple-state-memo-michael-bennet-darryl-glenn-agree-to-only-1-prime-time-debate
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #7 on: September 21, 2016, 11:51:09 PM »
Results are here:

http://www.coloradomesa.edu/social-research-center/poll/index.html

(It was actually F&M who did the calls for the poll)
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #8 on: September 21, 2016, 11:54:19 PM »
I also like the concept of the poll:

Sending letters to 7.000 RV and ask them to do the poll via phone or online could lead to a sample of about 1.000 people, if every 7th is responding.

Looking forward to the results. My prediction: Clinton+4
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2016, 06:54:05 AM »
Sunday:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I wouldn't say that MO is a "key state", but it's always nice to get a poll from there ...
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #10 on: September 25, 2016, 01:42:30 AM »
My predictions:

CO: Clinton+5
MO: Trump+11
VA: Clinton+6
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #11 on: September 25, 2016, 09:14:13 AM »

In about 30 minutes or so.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2016, 10:38:38 AM »
No CBS/YouGov polls today.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #13 on: October 03, 2016, 08:00:49 AM »
So, I guess his tweet means Monmouth polled CO over the weekend ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #14 on: October 03, 2016, 11:33:50 AM »
Why not ...

CO (Monmouth): Clinton+6
FL (Quinnipiac): Clinton+1
NC (Quinnipiac): Clinton+1
OH (Quinnipiac): Tie
PA (Quinnipiac): Clinton+5
TN (Vanderbilt): Trump+11
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2016, 02:00:36 PM »
Considering Hillary is up to +5 to +7 now nationally, the Selzer poll will likely show a tie (+/-2%).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #16 on: October 08, 2016, 10:15:58 AM »
Tomorrow:

Quote
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #17 on: October 08, 2016, 10:21:08 AM »
YouGov has shown abnormally high Hillary margins in OH before, so if they are using the same panel, I'd expect something like Hillary+10.

As for PA and WI:

PA: C+9
WI: C+9
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #18 on: October 13, 2016, 09:02:30 AM »
Quote from: Assemblyman Gass3268 on October 13, 2016, 08:31:52 AM
Monmouth will be releasing a poll of Utah later this afternoon.

I say:

26% Trump
25% Hillary
20% McMullin
17% Johnson
  2% Stein
  2% Others
  8% Undecided
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #19 on: October 13, 2016, 09:03:58 AM »
Quote from: Arch on October 12, 2016, 06:07:09 PM
Was just polled today by the NEA. Expect something eventually.

What's the NEA Huh
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #20 on: October 13, 2016, 09:26:33 AM »
Quote from: Boko Harambe on October 13, 2016, 09:21:52 AM
Why is everyone predicting a Trump lead? I don't know who should be in first, but it seems like anyone's game their right now after the un-endorsements and SLT endorsement of Hillary.

I'm not, I predict a "statistical tie" ... Tongue

McMullingston is probably not strong enough yet to compete for 1st though.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #21 on: October 16, 2016, 12:25:32 AM »
UT is hard to tell, because YouGov generally has a lower Johnson number than other pollsters and McMullings is hard to predict too ...

UT: Trump 34, Clinton 27, McMullings 20, Johnson 8, Stein 2
NV: Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 6
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2016, 02:32:18 PM »
CNN:

Hillary ahead by 3-9.

Most likely by 6.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #23 on: October 27, 2016, 12:55:22 PM »
GA: T+5
IA: T+2
NC: C+2
VA: C+7
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,198
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84
« Reply #24 on: October 30, 2016, 03:42:06 AM »
AZ: tie
CO: C+5
NC: C+4
PA: C+7
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