Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

Question. So there are people who want to abolish the presidency. Who, according to them, should then be the Head of State? The Prime Minister?

The SUPERCHANCELLOR:

It's no secret that the FPÖ wants to abolish the office of Austrian President, so FPÖ-leader Strache renewed a decade-old FPÖ-plan yesterday to merge the office of President with the Austrian Chancellor, who would then be directly elected by the voters when they are voting in the parliamentary elections.

Because most FPÖ-voters also want to abolish the President, it's already clear that the FPÖ-candidate for President in April (if there is one) will not go far (no higher than 20%) - because many FPÖ-voters will simply stay home.

http://derstandard.at/2000028260506/Strache-will-Kanzler-und-Bundespraesident-fusionieren

[Tender Branson]

Ah sorry, hadn't seen that. Interesting proposal. If this directly elected "superchancellor" would have to be the head of the government as well, it would effectively become much harder for the FPÖ to ever lead a government. Not such a smart idea from an electoral perspective.

Not really. Don't forget that if parliamentary elections are held together with Presidential elections, it would drive up turnout to 85% or something - increasing FPÖ turnout. I guess the FPÖ's proposal means that the SuperChancellor is elected only with a simply majority without a runoff. If there's no runoff, Strache as leading candidate for SC would do extremely well - he could easily win against Faymann or Mitterlehner (just look at the polls). Of course, if there's a runoff he'd end up like the LePens in Round 2 of the regionals recently ...

[Tender Branson]

The Salzburg Team Stronach has now fully disintegrated.

Today, another state MP for the party has joined the ÖVP parliamentary club.

Of the 3 state MPs and 1 government member from the TS, 3 have now joined the ÖVP club - while the remaining one has said today he'll work together with the remaining FPÖ-MP (remember that the FPÖ also split last summer and only has 1 MP remaining in the state, while the others have all joined the FPS splinter party).

http://salzburg.orf.at/news/stories/2751120

[Tender Branson]

Quite an interesting and shocking last 24 hours on the Presidential front:

* Erwin Pröll, who everyone thought would be the ÖVP-candidate for President, "shockingly" ruled out running for President (he actually already revealed it to ÖVP-leader Mitterlehner before Christmas, but Mitty waited until now to find an alternative candidate => see below).



http://derstandard.at/2000028693276/Erwin-Proell-zu-seiner-Absage-Auch-Emotionen-spielen-eine-Rolle

* Alexander Van der Bellen announced that he would run for President, just hours after the Pröll announcement. VdB is a former, popular Green Party leader - but will run as an "Independent" or "multi-partisan" candidate (which means he's not "officially" the Green Party candidate, to attract many centrist voters, but the Greens will "endorse" him and run his campaign of course).



http://derstandard.at/2000028674916/Alexander-Van-der-Bellen-kandidiert-zur-Praesidentschaftswahl

* And if this is not enough, internal ÖVP-leaks are now saying that ÖVP-"dinosaur" Andreas Khol will be their Presidential candidate. Khol is a former Austrian Parliament President and for a long time now already the leader of the Austrian "Union for the Retired" - which has big influence in Austrian politics since most (and steadily more) voters are old and retired. Khol, from the state of Tyrol, is also an arch-conservatice Catholiban and mastermind in setting up the "black-blue" ÖVP-FPÖ coalition after the 1999 federal election.



http://derstandard.at/2000028705112/Berichte-Andreas-Khol-soll-fuer-OeVP-bei-Praesidentenwahl-kandidieren

[Tender Branson]

I'm currently undecided between Alexander VdB and Irmgard Griss for President.

Both are highly competent, likeable and would be great Presidents.

I'm leaning a bit towards VdB, but Griss as the first female Austrian President would also be something.

Anyway, here's Van der Bellen's campaign launch video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ba4jalujuR0

And website:

https://www.vanderbellen.at

Logo:



Interestingly, his campaign website is not in Green - but in Black and Yellow - which is also what the ÖVP uses for many of their websites and posters. I guess VdB is really hunting for some ÖVP voters.

[Tender Branson]

So, what does the president of Austria even do? Is it an entirely ceremonial position, or could the president conceivably play a roll in government formation following an inconclusive election result?

Mostly ceremonial:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Austria#Responsibilities

But it could get interesting if the Green candidate Alexander Van Der Bellen is elected President somehow. Because he already said that he will not swear in a Chancellor H.C. Strache (FPÖ) or an FPÖ-government after the 2018 election ... which he could do, but it would create some real controversy.

[Tender Branson]

Would that really make it harder to form a government with the FPÖ, or is it just symbolical?

It would make it impossible. Van der Bellen would simply not swear them in.

[Tender Branson]

It would make it impossible. Van der Bellen would simply not swear them in.

Wow. You know I don't particularly like the FPÖ, but that is blatantly undemocratic.

It's a checks-and-balances thing. The President has this constitutional right (not to swear in Strache or the FPÖ for a future government), but usually the President respects the voters. Even Klestil did swear in ÖVP-FPÖ - but as we know, he didn't like it at all - and only did so with grinding teeth.

But if VdB thinks that Strache as Chancellor or another FPÖ government is harming Austria's image abroad, it's in his powers to block them from gaining power.

[Tender Branson]

Anyway, the ÖVP will officially present their Presidential candidate tonight.

Even though there are leaks that it will be Andreas Khol, there are still people out there who are speculating that it could be someone else - like Christoph Leitl (President of the Austrian Chamber of Commerce) or former Chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel.

We'll see ...

Meanwhile NEOS has announced that they will support both Griss and VdB for President, without running their own candidate.

[Tender Branson]

Oh God - please not:

Austria's Donald Trump (just without the xenophobic talk) is thinking about running for President ... again (after getting 10% of the vote in the 1998 election) !



http://www.oe24.at/leute/oesterreich/Lugner-Trete-an-um-Praesident-zu-werden/219162951

[Tender Branson]

What are the Candidates stances on immigration? (Middle east/Africa) immigrants that are currently enetering the EU.

Summed up:

Hundstorfer (likely SPÖ-candidate) status-quo policy, let them in like last year with no upper limit

Khol (likely ÖVP-candidate): a slightly tougher status-quo policy, let them in like last year but with an upper limit of ~80.000 per year, tougher penalties for criminal migrants and welfare-abusers

Unnamed FPÖ-candidate: unknown position, but if from the far-right wing: the standard FPÖ policies of keeping them out, if a more centrist candidate like Moser: more like the ÖVP's positions

Van der Bellen (Green candidate) much like the SPÖ's position, no upper limit, plus in favour of providing all the goodies/welfare for the migrants who came here

Griss (Indy candidate) a mix of the ÖVP and Green policies, but she's been very vague so far.

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP indeed nominated Andreas Khol yesterday as their presidential candidate.

http://derstandard.at/2000028780586/OeVP-Kandidat-Khol-als-Ansage-in-Richtung-FPOe-Waehler

SPÖ and FPÖ will announce their candidates next weekend. There's now even speculation that FPÖ-leader Strache himself could run for President to max out the FPÖ's potential in this election and force a runoff with an FPÖ candidate for the first time.

[Tender Branson]

ÖVP presidential candidate Andreas Khol yesterday on the possibility of swearing in Strache (FPÖ) as Chancellor after the next federal election in 2018:



"I would ask the leader of the strongest party to form the next government. And if he has a coalition deal with another party, a program and a majority in parliament - then yes, I would swear in a Chancellor Strache."

http://orf.at/stories/2318275/2318277

[Tender Branson]

Good. But I thought this was about any coalition with Strache, not just a coalition in which Strache is Chancellor... is that right?

Unlike Jörg Haider (who "refused" to become Chancellor after the 1999 election, despite the fact that the FPÖ finished some 500 votes ahead of the ÖVP), Strache would definitely want to become Chancellor if he wins the 2018 elections. But yeah, you can interpret Khol's remarks as swearing in any FPÖ- or Strache-involved coalition.

[Tender Branson]

The campaigns of Griss (Indy) and Khol (ÖVP) want a so-called "campaign-fairness-agreement" on campaign spending.

While the ÖVP wants a spending cap of 3-4 million € for each candidate, the Griss-campaign wants a cap of just 1 million €. They also want no campaign TV ads and posters.

The SPÖ and Green campaigns are not necessarily opposed to the idea, but are still weighing the options. The Van der Bellen campaign (Greens) is likely to say something about it soon (I guess they would support some cap).

The FPÖ (which is swimming in money after their successful state elections last year) is strongly opposed to any upper limit.

[Tender Branson]

Unlike Jörg Haider (who "refused" to become Chancellor after the 1999 election, despite the fact that the FPÖ finished some 500 votes ahead of the ÖVP), Strache would definitely want to become Chancellor if he wins the 2018 elections. But yeah, you can interpret Khol's remarks as swearing in any FPÖ- or Strache-involved coalition.

But do Van der Bellen and Griss refuse to swear in any coalition with the FPÖ, or only a coalition in which Strache would be chancellor?

Since FPÖ = Strache, VdB rules it out.

Griss has been vague on the issue, saying it "is highly unlikely that a scenario like this will happen".

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ will present their presidential candidate today (= Rudolf Hundstorfer).

There will also be a cabinet re-shuffeling among SPÖ government members, because Hundstorfer is the current Austrian Minister for Labour and Consumer Protection.

...

Meanwhile, Strache (FPÖ-leader) held a press conference in which he ruled out a presidential run for himself. He also announced that the FPÖ will not back ÖVP-candidate Khol as President. He also said that the FPÖ is in no hurry to present their own candidate and may well wait until February to present one.

...

Ö24/Gallup has a new Presidential poll out and Griss (Indy) and Van der Bellen (Greens) remain ahead by a surprisingly big margin (I thought SPÖ and ÖVP would consolidate their support by now, but apparently not):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Griss-und-Professor-Van-der-Bellen-Kopf-an-Kopf/219840608

...

Also, the same poll has the FPÖ at 34% after the Cologne and also Austrian abuse cases by Muslim immigrants - which is an all time record for them in Austrian federal polling.

The full poll results will be released tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

More from the new Gallup poll:

Austrians are now taking a sharp turn away from the "welcome culture" of Merkel and Faymann following the Muslim migrant mass rapes and want strict border controls and a general upper cap for asylum seekers:

76% want a general upper cap for how many asylum seekers can enter Austria each year
17% are opposed to a cap

Of the 76% who favour a cap ...

...48% want no further asylum seekers allowed into the country
...28% want up to an additional 20.000 asylum seekers each year
...12% want up to an additional 50.000 asylum seekers each year
...  2% want up to an additional 100.000 asylum seekers each year
...  1% want more than an additional 100.000 asylum seekers each year

"Do you think the influx that Austria saw last year (90.000 asylum seekers) would be doable this year ?"

75% No
17% Yes

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/76-Prozent-fuer-Asyl-Stop/219840551

[Tender Branson]

So, with the official Presidential candidates announced from SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens as well as the Indy candidacy of Irmgard Griss - we are still waiting for the FPÖ, Team Stronach (lol), BZÖ (lol) and Richard Lugner (lol).

But there's plenty time left: potential candidates have until mid-March to file for President.

To run for Austrian President, you have to be older than 35 and collect 6.000 valid signatures from Austrian voters.

Until now, a few minor candidates have already made steps to run - among them a former "Who wants to be a Millionaire ?" winner from Vienna.

[Tender Branson]

Since FPÖ = Strache, VdB rules it out.

But does he rule out a scenario with an ÖVP chancellor and an FPÖVP coalition?

Not as far as I know. It's always been phrased as "making Strache chancellor".

With all of this you have to remember that recent Austrian presidents and presidential candidates (particularly from outside the two main parties) have a bit of a history of claiming they'll make more use of their powers and, when it comes to it, never actually doing it. (See not only the Wenderegierung of '99, but also Klestil fancying himself as representative at the heads of states and governments and, of course, basically the entire Waldheim presidency.) Fischer has basically been a return to the even meeker previous standard of SPÖ grandees. (Though unlike them, he's (so far) managed to survive it. It still amazes me that it wasn't until 1986 that a (post-war) president left office alive!)

That's incorrect.

VdB recently gave several interviews in which he clearly said that he currently would not swear in a government with the FPÖ in it, because the "FPÖ is currently against anything that the EU/Europe stands for".

Of course he uses "currently", but the FPÖ's policies won't change in the next years - which means he still won't swear in a FPÖ-government after the 2018 elections.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://orf.at/stories/2318533/2318534

...

Meanwhile, the SPÖ-candidate Hundstorfer said he would swear in a FPÖ-government.

[Tender Branson]

That's incorrect.

VdB recently gave several interviews in which he clearly said that he currently would not swear in a government with the FPÖ in it, because the "FPÖ is currently against anything that the EU/Europe stands for".

Of course he uses "currently", but the FPÖ's policies won't change in the next years - which means he still won't swear in a FPÖ-government after the 2018 elections.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

Meanwhile, the SPÖ-candidate Hundstorfer said he would swear in a FPÖ-government.

I've always taken "FPÖ-Regierung" to mean a government led by the FPÖ. I certainly, for example, wouldn't refer to the current Government of Burgenland (an SPÖ-FPÖ coalition) as a "FPÖ-Regierung" in German.

To put what Van der Bellen said in context, here's the question he was asked in the interview. (conducted by one of Austria's most respected interviewers and journalists, Armin Wolf.)

You must be logged in to read this quote.

His remarks were thus once again in the context of a FPÖ-led government.

True. "FPÖ-government" usually means a government with the FPÖ as senior partner.

But it's more the way he talked about the FPÖ in general during the interview I posted: He said that he would not swear in the party FPÖ right now because of how they are basically destroying the EU and it's values ("Eine Partei wie die FPÖ sende derzeit alle Signale dafür aus, dass man die Europäische Union eher zerstören als weiterentwickeln wolle, weswegen sie in Van der Bellens Augen das Vertrauen des Bundespräsidenten nicht verdient habe."), which further means that he is like 99.9% certain not to swear in A) the FPÖ as senior coalition partner incl. a Chancellor Strache as well as B) the FPÖ as a junior partner in a coalition let's say with the ÖVP leading it.

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is at a new all-time high (Gallup/Ö24):



Strong majority for FPÖVP (56-40).

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/FPOe-zieht-mit-34-klar-davon/220151656

[Tender Branson]

Riding high into the new year, Strache called Faymann an "enemy of the state and a threat to Austrian citizens" in the FPÖ's New Year Convention yesterday in Wels (attended by 7.000 people).

Meanwhile, Faymann finally woke up from his naive fantasy-dream-world that he was living in and announced tougher steps to combat the (mostly illegal) migrant and crime wave (1 year too late though):

Schengen suspended as army mobilizes

On Sunday the Austrian chancellor Werner Faymann announced in an interview with the magazine ÖSTERREICH that the Schengen agreement, which permits the free movement of persons between most European Union countries without identity checks, has been 'temporarily suspended.'

Faymann said that with the new measures introduced at Austria’s borders, the existence of “the whole EU is in question.”

“All refugees must be controlled, economic migrants must be sent to the countries of their origin,” Faymann said in the interview published on Sunday.

The government is implementing a strict monitoring system for asylum seekers, the chancellor said, adding that, just like in neighboring Germany, its border controls are being tightened, and repatriations of refugees are carried out.

http://www.thelocal.at/20160116/austria-mobilizes-army-against-migrants

[Tender Branson]

The FPÖ is currently doing internal polling on potential presidential candidates.

OGM (Austria's best pollster) is currently in the field for them to test name recognition of a dozen or so candidates and their favorable ratings.

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,1251207

Newspaper "Heute" is even reporting that they are testing Karin Kneissl (a Middle-East expert and journalist) as a possible surprise candidate for the FPÖ.

"Ö24" on the other hand speculates that Vienna FPÖ-leader Johann Gudenus would be their surprise candidate, because he's relatively young and far-right, which would play well with the core FPÖ-voters (=young to middle-aged working people).

[Tender Branson]

A new Presidential poll for the ORF by (online)-pollster Meinungsraum pretty much confirms the earlier Gallup poll for Ö24:



Voters polled also think that:

* The high age of candidates (~70 years for those announced) is a problem in executing the office of President (by a 63-37 margin)

* They also prefer independent presidential candidates to party candidates by a 60-19 margin

* By a 51-30 margin, voters want the future President to swear in a FPÖ-Chancellor

http://meinungsraum.at/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/MR_2418_BP-Wahlen.pdf

http://meinungsraum.at/bp_wahl_2016