Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

First poll after Paris (Gallup):



Do you think Austria could become a target for terrorists ?

69% Yes
24% No

Do you think Austria is prepared enough to deal with a terrorist attack ?

76% No
14% Yes

Are you personally afraid about a future terrorist attack in Austria ?

57% No
36% Yes

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/chronik/69-sehen-Oesterreich-als-Terror-Ziel/212745634

[Tender Branson]

Once again it's Foreign & Integration minister Sebastian Kurz (ÖVP) who's taking the lead in dealing with the asylum crisis and integration of the hordes of foreigners, while most of the remaining SPÖVP coalition sits on the sidelines doing nothing. No wonder he's the most popular cabinet member ...

New asylum integration plan announced

Austrian Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz has announced a new integration plan for asylum seekers, in which German-language learning is rewarded and radicalism is punished.

There are 50 points in the new plan, which is intended to help asylum seekers become part of the community, and to be better prepared for joining the labour market.
 
As well as taking language lessons, migrants wishing to stay in Austria will have to undergo at least eight hours of compulsory training in basic European values.
 
If they refuse to participate in the language and values courses they will face penalties, including cuts of up to 50 percent of the social security benefits they receive during the integration period.
 
There will also be penalties for immigrants who are found to have engaged in radical behaviour, including increased community service.

According to Austrian broadcaster ORF, some of the key points of the plan include:

* Values. People receiving asylum are required to attend a course with an emphasis on values and orientation. On the curriculum: democracy, human rights, manners, values orientation.

* Racism. Asylum applicants with racist or radicalized ideas must attend special de-radicalization workshops.

* Kindergarten. The second year of kindergarten is compulsory. Kindergartens must share the constitutionally enshrined values. This is especially true for Islamic kindergartens, of which there are around 150 in Vienna. Kindergarten teachers must have good German language skills and recognised qualifications.

* School. Civic education should be a school subject.

* Religion. Promotion of a "European-style" Islam.

http://www.thelocal.at/20151119/new-asylum-integration-plan-announced

[Tender Branson]

A new Profil/Unique Research poll shows pretty much the same results as the Gallup poll on terrorism:

"Are you worried that terrorists could attack somewhere in Austria as well ?"

67% Yes (by party: 89% FPÖ, 59% SPÖ, 58% ÖVP, 49% NEOS, 29% Greens)

"Do you favour tougher surveillance measures (internet, phones, etc.) against potential terrorists ?" * (remember that the universial mass surveillance and storage of communications data from all people was ruled unconstitutional in Austria about a year ago and was therefore stopped).

59% Yes (by party: 67% FPÖ, 64% ÖVP, 60% SPÖ, 50% NEOS, 34% Greens)

"Should EU countries step up the armed fight against IS in Syria and Iraq ?"

52% Yes (by party: 66% FPÖ, 61% NEOS, 56% SPÖ, 41% ÖVP, 35% Greens)

http://www.ots.at/presseaussendung/OTS_20151121_OTS0004/profil-umfrage-67-befuerchten-anschlaege

[Tender Branson]

Profil/Unique Research federal election poll:

32% FPÖ (+11%)
22% SPÖ (-5%)
20% ÖVP (-4%)
13% Greens (+1%)
  9% NEOS (+4%)
  4% Others (-7%)

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-nummer-6085212

[Tender Branson]

April 2016 Presidential election update:

NEOS and Team Stronach have now said that they will definitely not run their own candidates, but both might back the candidacy of Irmgard Griss instead.

The other parties will wait until the New Year holidays are over and then present their candidates.

It's still unclear if the FPÖ will run a candidate on their own, or if they'll back Griss too.

http://derstandard.at/2000025796902/Bundespraesidentschaft-Kandidaten-halten-sich-noch-zurueck

[Tender Branson]

neuwal.com chart on which coalitions would be possible right now or not:

Absolute majority of seats = 92 of 183

[Tender Branson]

More terror-polling, this time by the (historically best) pollster OGM for the public broadcaster ORF:



http://kurier.at/politik/inland/grosse-mehrheit-ist-fuer-datenspeicherung/165.358.168

...

"After Paris, are you worried that terrorists could attack somewhere in Austria as well ?"

55-25 Yes

"France has imposed a state of emergency. Should a state of emergency also be imposed in Austria ?"

49-30 Yes

"Comprehensive communications data storage and mass surveillance of people is not allowed anymore in Austria. Should it be re-introduced to combat terrorism ?"

70-18 Yes

"Should comprehensive border controls be introduced again in Austria ?"

52-39 Yes

...

I would answer "Undecided", "No", "No" and "Yes" on these questions.

[Tender Branson]

New April 2016 Presidential poll (Gallup):



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Vor-Hofburg-Wahl-wird-die-Regierung-umgebildet/213082750

[Tender Branson]

Former Austrian Supreme Court Chief Justice Irmgard Griss has launched an exploratory committee for President yesterday, as an Indy candidate:



http://www.irmgardgriss.at

She also went to the liberal NEOS Lab yesterday, which was packed with people, to speak about her views on the Presidency. After the event, she got standing ovations from the NEOS crowd and NEOS-leader Strolz said that the party will decide on Dec. 17 if they'll back her Indy run. All signs are now pointing towards an endorsement.

http://derstandard.at/2000026255103/Neos-und-Griss-Das-kann-durchaus-was-werden

FPÖ and Team Stronach could follow NEOS in backing her anti-establishment candidacy.

During the event she said that she's a proud European and that she would take a stand against hatred, racism and hate speech as President (=> pandering to NEOS), while also saying that the constitution of the country needs to be respected with law and order and that all refugees have to be properly registered at the border (=> pandering to a future FPÖ/TS endorsement).

[Tender Branson]

In Vienna, Red-Green 2.0 was sworn in today.

But mayor Michael Häupl (SPÖ) was only elected with 52 votes and vice-mayor Maria Vassilakou (Greens) with just 51 votes, despite the Red-Green coalition having 54 of 100 seats.

http://kurier.at/chronik/wien/rot-gruen-in-wien-buergermeister-haeupl-mit-knapper-mehrheit-gewaehlt/165.858.125

[Tender Branson]

The budget for 2016 was passed in parliament today.

Austria will have a planned 1.4% budget deficit (as a percentage of GDP) next year (down from 1.9% this year) and the debt level is projected to decrease for the first time in a few years from 87% this year to 85% of the GDP next year.

The debt level is then projected to decrease below 80% in the next years to 2020, mostly because the HYPO bad bank is winded down until then and with its assets sold it will also reduce the debt level after the bad bank increased the debt in the last years. We have already seen the same thing in Germany in the previous years. Also, Austria currently has very low interest rates to pay for its debts @ the international bond market.

The budget next year also includes an income tax cut, the first in about 10 years - which will lower the tax burden for employers and lead to about 5% more pay for eymployees on average. This could help further improve Austria's lagging economy, because people are expected to spend more with their additional cash.

[Tender Branson]

Irmgard Griss is stepping up her indy presidential campaign lately, appearing even in the ORF's news show (but only during the midnight one, because the Red/Black ORF is of course looking not to give her a platform during the primetime news).

She definitely needs to increase her name recognition in the coming months, because so far only 40% have an opinion of her. But of those who do, she ranks the most favorable of presidential candidates.

That's why she gave some interviews recently to the TT, the VOL and ÖSTERREICH newspapers.

Some points out of these interviews:

* She's against an upper limit for asylum seekers coming to Austria (like Faymann and Merkel)
* She's in favour of limiting legal immigration though
* She's against hate speech
* She's strongly pro-European
* She's undecided about swearing in Strache, but thinks it won't happen anyway
* She wants to collect 1 Mio. € by Christmas for her Indy run (she already collected 100K €)
* She would not mind being endorsed by parties
* She won't take any money from supporting parties (most likely NEOS, FPÖ, TS)
* She would take money from private persons (the "society") though
* She's against house arrest and electronic shackles for known Muslim extremists
* She's against a border fence to Slovenia, but says every asylum seeker needs to be registered
* She questions the long-standing Austrian "neutrality"

http://www.tt.com/politik/10805384-91/irmgard-griss-will-eine-million-euro-sammeln.csp

http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Griss-stellt-Neutralitaet-infrage/213893893

...

Will be interesting to see if the FPÖ still thinks about backing her run, after her comments on Europe, no border fence, no upper limit for refugees and thinking neutrality is outdated.

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg:

After the FPÖ's troubles and party split, now the Team Stronach there is imploding (and pretty badly too).

This is important, because the TS is in the state government together with the ÖVP and Greens.

The Team Stronach has 3 MPs in the state parliament, of which one left the party recently and announced that he will vote with the ÖVP in the future, but technically remain "independent".

Also, the only state government member from the TS also quit the party.

This means that the current state government only has 19 of the 36 seats in parliament left and it is mostly depending on the former TS party switcher who became and Independent for the next 2.5 years until new elections are to take place. (The remaining 2 TS MPs have said they will continue to vote with the government, but both have a serious grudge against the 2 defecting ones and also to some extent against the Greens for traffic related reasons - so they might actually vote against the government at some point).

The FPÖ, while still licking its wounds from the party split earlier this year, already wants new elections.

The SPÖ, which is also still licking its wounds from the financial scandal in 2012/13, does not want new elections - nor does the government.

It remains to be seen if the government survives the next years, but even though it's shaky I think that Konrad (ex-TS) will be reliable enough to secure the majorities for them.

If there were new elections, the most likely (working) scenario would be ÖVP-FPÖ and the state ÖVP is not amused with an option like this.

http://derstandard.at/2000026681821/Eine-Zitterpartie-fuer-die-Salzburger-Landesregierung

[Tender Branson]

Not a lot going on here recently, except the Salzburg-FPÖ presenting a new leadership team of 4 young people, who are all likely to succeed the interim party leader in the leadership election next year, who said he will retire in 2016 after the party split into two pieces earlier this year.

Which means Salzburg might get the youngest and only female FPÖ leader of any state next year with Marlene Svazek (23):

[Tender Branson]

Turns out our Islamic kindergartens are turning into breeding grounds for religious fundamentalism and extremism, because they are basically running under a Salafist-financed parallel structure to state kindergartens:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

So, there's one guy in the government who's actually willing to work and do something and speak out about problems that exist and not ignoring everything like our "smiley-Chancellor" Faymann and his incompetent/neglecting cronies ...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

BTW, here's his 50-point plan for the integration of the 100.000s of asylum seekers in Austria in English:

http://www.bmeia.gv.at/fileadmin/user_upload/Zentrale/Integration/Publikationen/Integrationsplan_final_EN.pdf

Of course, Faymann and Co. already let his plan vanish in a drawer again - just not to work or do anything about the matter. Just ignore it and everything gets better by itself ...

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg:

After the FPÖ's troubles and party split, now the Team Stronach there is imploding (and pretty badly too).

This is important, because the TS is in the state government together with the ÖVP and Greens.

The Team Stronach has 3 MPs in the state parliament, of which one left the party recently and announced that he will vote with the ÖVP in the future, but technically remain "independent".

Also, the only state government member from the TS also quit the party.

This means that the current state government only has 19 of the 36 seats in parliament left and it is mostly depending on the former TS party switcher who became and Independent for the next 2.5 years until new elections are to take place. (The remaining 2 TS MPs have said they will continue to vote with the government, but both have a serious grudge against the 2 defecting ones and also to some extent against the Greens for traffic related reasons - so they might actually vote against the government at some point).

The FPÖ, while still licking its wounds from the party split earlier this year, already wants new elections.

The SPÖ, which is also still licking its wounds from the financial scandal in 2012/13, does not want new elections - nor does the government.

It remains to be seen if the government survives the next years, but even though it's shaky I think that Konrad (ex-TS) will be reliable enough to secure the majorities for them.

If there were new elections, the most likely (working) scenario would be ÖVP-FPÖ and the state ÖVP is not amused with an option like this.

http://derstandard.at/2000026681821/Eine-Zitterpartie-fuer-die-Salzburger-Landesregierung

The Team Stronach might get kicked out of the Salzburg state coalition (ÖVP-Greens-TS) on Monday, as Gov. Haslauer (ÖVP) has set a coalition meeting for that day.

www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/zerfall-und-zank-im-team-stronach-haslauer-stellt-die-koalitionsfrage-176531

[Tender Branson]

There's a mayoral by-election in Hohenems (Vorarlberg) on Dec. 20, which the FPÖ-candidate might win (according to a recent VN poll which showed a 6-point lead for Egger).

But now the SPÖ and Greens came out to endorse the ÖVP candidate, to prevent an FPÖ victory. Elections during Christmas are totally uncommon, which means turnout will be low (~60%). In the recent election there, the ÖVP candidate beat Egger by just 2% (51-49). So, everything is possible this time (pretty similar situation like in the French regional elections).

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg:

After the FPÖ's troubles and party split, now the Team Stronach there is imploding (and pretty badly too).

This is important, because the TS is in the state government together with the ÖVP and Greens.

The Team Stronach has 3 MPs in the state parliament, of which one left the party recently and announced that he will vote with the ÖVP in the future, but technically remain "independent".

Also, the only state government member from the TS also quit the party.

This means that the current state government only has 19 of the 36 seats in parliament left and it is mostly depending on the former TS party switcher who became and Independent for the next 2.5 years until new elections are to take place. (The remaining 2 TS MPs have said they will continue to vote with the government, but both have a serious grudge against the 2 defecting ones and also to some extent against the Greens for traffic related reasons - so they might actually vote against the government at some point).

The FPÖ, while still licking its wounds from the party split earlier this year, already wants new elections.

The SPÖ, which is also still licking its wounds from the financial scandal in 2012/13, does not want new elections - nor does the government.

It remains to be seen if the government survives the next years, but even though it's shaky I think that Konrad (ex-TS) will be reliable enough to secure the majorities for them.

If there were new elections, the most likely (working) scenario would be ÖVP-FPÖ and the state ÖVP is not amused with an option like this.

http://derstandard.at/2000026681821/Eine-Zitterpartie-fuer-die-Salzburger-Landesregierung

The Team Stronach might get kicked out of the Salzburg state coalition (ÖVP-Greens-TS) on Monday, as Gov. Haslauer (ÖVP) has set a coalition meeting for that day.

www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/zerfall-und-zank-im-team-stronach-haslauer-stellt-die-koalitionsfrage-176531

The Team Stronach got indeed kicked out of the state coalition today.

Salzburg is now governed by ÖVP-Greens (with 2 former TS coalition members absorbed into the ÖVP).

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/4886906/Salzburg_OVP-und-Grune-werfen-Team-Stronach-aus-Koalition

[Tender Branson]

Independent presidential candidate Irmgard Griss is auditioning at the FPÖ headquarters today, where she's to speak about her presidential plans and positions on the issues.

In the last days, it became more and more unlikely though that the FPÖ will back her run - because her positions on Europe, immigration etc. are too centrist or center-left for the party.

[Tender Branson]

How common are OVP-Grune coalitions? In many countries, they are more or less stalking horses or vassals of the main left party. Is Austria the exception?

There are currently three ÖVP-Grüne coalitions (Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg) and one SPÖ-ÖVP-Grüne coalition (Carinthia) on the state level. There used to be one more in Upper Austria, but it lost their majority in the elections in September. As can be seen from this, they are basically only existent in the West, which is partly due to the reason that the Greens are considered significantly more conservative in these areas. The Austrian Greens arose in the eighties from two smaller green parties (one, the ALÖ stemming from the left and largely former SPÖ supporters; while the other, the VGÖ being a party coming mainly from the ÖVP and more conservative side), and still today, the Greens in Austria in general, but particularly in the West, are considered a tad more conservative and a bit less leftist than in other European nations, which may be one of the reasons they are one of the strongest, if not the actually strongest, green parties in Europe.

Which is of course also a reason why they are alienating some of their more centrist base voters (= people like me), with their ridiculous positions on asylum seekers/immigration and their moral-apostle-like "we need to save/import the whole world" attitude. No wonder the Greens made no polling gains in the recent years ... (don't get me wrong, I will still vote for them, but they are increasingly pissing off 10-30% of their potential voters).

[Tender Branson]

How common are OVP-Grune coalitions? In many countries, they are more or less stalking horses or vassals of the main left party. Is Austria the exception?

There are currently three ÖVP-Grüne coalitions (Tyrol, Salzburg and Vorarlberg) and one SPÖ-ÖVP-Grüne coalition (Carinthia) on the state level. There used to be one more in Upper Austria, but it lost their majority in the elections in September. As can be seen from this, they are basically only existent in the West, which is partly due to the reason that the Greens are considered significantly more conservative in these areas. The Austrian Greens arose in the eighties from two smaller green parties (one, the ALÖ stemming from the left and largely former SPÖ supporters; while the other, the VGÖ being a party coming mainly from the ÖVP and more conservative side), and still today, the Greens in Austria in general, but particularly in the West, are considered a tad more conservative and a bit less leftist than in other European nations, which may be one of the reasons they are one of the strongest, if not the actually strongest, green parties in Europe.

Which is of course also a reason why they are alienating some of their more centrist base voters (= people like me), with their ridiculous positions on asylum seekers/immigration and their moral-apostle-like "we need to save/import the whole world" attitude. No wonder the Greens made no polling gains in the recent years ... (don't get me wrong, I will still vote for them, but they are increasingly pissing off 10-30% of their potential voters).

To be fair though, Tender, I have never met a Green voter under 40 that has views similar to you on certain issues. It is true that the Green Party of today certainly has moved to the left a bit, but their voting share is consistent, so it seems that they gain a "naive left-leftist" for every Tender

I know, because most Green voters like to follow the herd, instead of applying some critical thinking and common sense when it's needed - especially on immigration (+ immigrant crime) and welfare (abuse). Most Green party voters don't have a problem with it and neglect the problems (or even allowing them to become worse, while at the same time piling up debts like any good, incompetent Leftist), instead of tackling the problems with common sense policies. It would be better if the Greens would have more centrist people again and not naive/leftist hippies ...

[Tender Branson]

The Young FPÖ put a provocative banner on their Facebook page today, which mixes Christmas time with the asylum seekers:



"Josef and Maria instead of Burka and Scharia."

...

Also, I got the new "Economist" today in which they had a page or two about Far-Right parties in Europe and their rise (article is called "Europe's little Trumps" or something) and they managed not to mention the FPÖ even a single time (which is polling at 33% right now).

[Tender Branson]

Independent presidential candidate Irmgard Griss is auditioning at the FPÖ headquarters today, where she's to speak about her presidential plans and positions on the issues.

In the last days, it became more and more unlikely though that the FPÖ will back her run - because her positions on Europe, immigration etc. are too centrist or center-left for the party.

Griss spoke in front of the FPÖ's main committee (incl. Strache) today and answered questions about Islam, immigration, border controls, Europe etc. - and she gave mostly neutral answers (as in "I am a former judge and will obey the Constitution" or "Muslims who follow our values definitely belong in Austria", or "A country who gives up on securing its borders is giving itself up").



Strache remained open about backing her run and said that "the first female President in Austria would be a desirable step".

The FPÖ will decide in January about an endorsement or if they run their own candidate.

NEOS will decide on backing Griss on Thursday.

[Tender Branson]

Griss also had dinner with Frank Stronach recently and they talked about her presidential run.

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/praesidentenwahl-stronach-wollte-griss-koedern/167.858.806

But Stronach presented his own plans for how a future President should act and Griss didn't like his plans at all ... so, probably no endorsement for her from the Team Stronach.

Not that an endorsement by a party that is only polling 1% anymore matters anyway ...

Still, an FPÖ+NEOS endorsement would create at least a pool of 40% of the Austrian electorate for her, plus additional support from pissed-off SPÖVP voters.