Austrian Elections & Politics 2.0 (Presidential runoff re-vote: 4 Dec. 2016)

[Tender Branson]

The new Irmgard Griss website now looks highly professional and stylish:

https://www.griss16.at



"Independent for Austria. Irmgard Griss."

Probably better than the Van der Bellen and Hundstorfer pages, which are also not bad.

On the other hand, the Hofer page is still under construction and the Khol page is absolutely terrible. It fits the man, his age and conservatism and looks like it's from the 19th century ...

[Tender Branson]

There are 2 ways of how to see this:

A) Is he competent enough to serve as President ? Yes, definitely.

Someone who believes in chemtrails? This is debatable, but I wouldn't say someone like that would be competent to be the head of state of a country.

Everyone has his or her own fetish I guess ... And for Hofer, it's the chemtrails.

It's not like a believe in chemtrails would hinder his ability to host foreign guests, travel abroad and get trade deals for Austrian companies, visit some events and give speeches here and then - which is what the Austrian President usually does. Not talk about chemtrails.

[Tender Branson]

Ö24/Gallup is out with a new poll - and as expected - Hofer starts to gain because of the asylum crisis, at the expense of Griss and Khol who are dropping fast. Van der Bellen is also down a bit from earlier polls, but still doing relatively well. Hundstorfer is flat.

They also have a 2nd hypothetical matchup with Richard Lugner (who's Austria's version of Trump/Berlusconi/Stronach) and he'd get 7% (mostly from Griss).

[Tender Branson]

I wonder how it would play out if VdB and Hofer make the runoff ...

Under normal circumstances, SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS-voters would mostly come out and vote for VdB over Hofer, but these are no "normal" times.

Could it end like the mayoral election in Hohenems, just on a national level ?

In Hohenems, slightly before Christmas, the ÖVP-candidate lost to the FPÖ-candidate in a stunning upset - despite SPÖ/Greens/NEOS urging their voters to vote for the ÖVP-guy.

[Tender Branson]

Talking of, who are NEOS supporting? Also are the Communists/far left bothering or are they just supporting VdB?

NEOS (the party) does not officially support any candidate. They said they like the "independent" candidates Van der Bellen and Griss, but didn't endorse them. Most of the NEOS voters will likely vote for either VdB (maybe 50% ?), Griss (40%) or Khol (5%) or Hundstorfer (5%).

...

As for the Communists/Left: They are not running a candidate on their own. But recently, former "Who wants to be a Millionaire ?"-winner and dialect author El Awadalla has announced her intention to run.



Awadalla, who said that nothing is left from the 1 million € she won, previously ran as a candidate for the leftist "Wien Anders" list in the Vienna state election. She wants to campaign for a universal basic income for all, peace & freedom, against weapons trading etc. etc.

While not supported by the KPÖ, their leader has endorsed her and her campaign. I'm not sure though if that means the KPÖ tapping into their membership lists to help her get the 6.000 signatures that are necessary to be on the ballot.

[Tender Branson]

I found something where Cranberry and the FPÖ totally agree on:

They both hate Miriam Weichselbraun (a hot moderator for the ORF TV-broadcaster)



http://derstandard.at/2000030447217/Blaue-Stimmung-kippt-wegen-Opernball-Entgleisung

[Tender Branson]

I wonder how it would play out if VdB and Hofer make the runoff ...

Under normal circumstances, SPÖ/ÖVP/NEOS-voters would mostly come out and vote for VdB over Hofer, but these are no "normal" times.

Could it end like the mayoral election in Hohenems, just on a national level ?

In Hohenems, slightly before Christmas, the ÖVP-candidate lost to the FPÖ-candidate in a stunning upset - despite SPÖ/Greens/NEOS urging their voters to vote for the ÖVP-guy.

Would a part of the OVP voters go to Hofer if there was a Hofer/Vdb election?

Yeah, but the question is: How many ?

[Tender Branson]

New ATV/Hajek poll (n=700):



With Lugner:



Runoff matchups:

39% VdB
27% Hofer

32% VdB
32% Griss

37% VdB
30% Khol

34% VdB
28% Hundstorfer

34% Hundstorfer
29% Khol

34% Griss
32% Hundstorfer

Federal elections poll:



http://atv.at/oesterreichtrend

[Tender Branson]

OGM/Kurier poll on name recognition for presidential candidates and which candidates is best on several personal quality characteristics:

name recognition

95% Rudolf Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
92% Alexander Van der Bellen (Greens)
83% Andreas Khol (ÖVP)
38% Irmgard Griss (Indy)
36% Norbert Hofer (FPÖ)

personal quality characteristics



From left to right:

* credibility
* experience
* competence/knowledge on issues
* party independence
* proximity to citizens (like in "understanding/dealing with the needs of the citizens")
* Refugee/migrant policy

http://kurier.at/politik/inland/kurier-ogm-umfrage-hofburg-wahl-wer-was-mitbringt/179.433.940

[Tender Branson]

Gallup: Merkel and Faymann get the worst ratings from Austrian voters for dealing with the asylum situation. Foreign and Integration Minister Sebastian Kurz and the new defense Minister Doskozil are getting the best numbers.



The same poll shows no changes for the federal elections compared with their previous poll:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/Fluechtlinge-bestimmen-Umfrage/223161227

[Tender Branson]

What are the chances of Kurz being the leader of the ÖVP in the next election?

It really depends on what Kurz's popularity is like in early 2018, or what Mitterlehner's numbers are like. There's a loooong way to go.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, the whole Chemtrails-thing from Hofer is just smoke.

He doesn't actually believe in Chemtrails (like previous media reports suggested), he only brought that issue up in parliament because concerned people emailed the FPÖ about it and Hofer wrote an inquiry to the concerned ministries for clarification.

In an interview today, Hofer said:

"I'm no conspiracy theorist. I'm a trained aviation and airplane engine technician and trust me: I know a lot about airplane engines. There are no chemtrails in Austria."

http://derstandard.at/2000030644191-1528/Hofburg-Kandidat-Norbert-Hofer-Faymann-ist-kein-Staatsfreund

[Tender Branson]

Ughhh, he's in:

Richard Lugner to run for Austrian President (again)

The 83-year-old construction entrepreneur, millionaire and society figure Richard 'Mortar' Lugner says he is running for president of Austria. He wants to hold the highest office along with his 26-year-old German wife Cathy, a former Playboy Bunny at the Playboy Club in Cologne. For an official nomination Lugner needs to collect 6,000 signatures.

Richard "Mörtel" Lugner (born 11 October 1932) had already run in 1998 for the post of head of state and received nearly 10 percent of the vote. He ended up as the fourth out of five candidates.

For the 2016 presidential election Lugner was thinking of participating again. In late January Lugner had himself promoted in a video for the highest office of the state.

Born in Vienna, Lugner got a licence to work as a building contractor (Baumeisterkonzession) in 1962 and at first specialized in the erection of filling stations and the renovation of old buildings.

His company started to prosper, and he eventually became known to a wider public with the completion, in 1979, of Vienna's first mosque, situated on the banks of the river Danube.

In 1990 he opened his own shopping mall, Lugner City, in a working class district of Vienna and, from the start, aggressively advertised his business by regularly inviting celebrities—starting with Thomas Gottschalk—who would perform there and sign autographs—a marketing strategy not very common in a city that, back then, hardly had any shopping malls.

(story continues)

https://www.friedlnews.com/article/richard-lugner-to-run-for-austrian-president

...

Apparently, his decision came after commissioning a private poll from the Humaninstitut which showed him at 10%. Humaninstitut is a terrible pollster though.

[Tender Branson]

OGM has a new poll about the favorable ratings of Presidential candidates. Richard Lugner (who is a mix of Austria's Trump/Berlusconi even has similar ratings as Trump in the US):



It's unclear though if Lugner, Awadalla and Marschall will be able to collect the 6.000 signatures to be on the ballot.

http://www.ogm.at/2016/02/apaogm-vertrauensindex-bundesraesiodentschafts-kandidatinnen-februar-2016

[Tender Branson]

The Team Stronach decided to sit out the presidential election and presented no candidate.

http://orf.at/stories/2324353

In other news, 55% of Austrians support the use of weapons/guns as a last resort to keep (some of) the (illegal) migrants streaming over the Austrian border out.

This is a strange result, because not even the FPÖ's presidential candidate Hofer supports the use of weapons against migrants. Nonetheless, 80% of FPÖ-voters, 60% of ÖVP-voters and 45% of SPÖ-voters support the use of force as a last resort. 86% of Green-voters are opposed.

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http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/grenzschutz-einsatz-waffen-6230832

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP now wants a "pledge of allegiance" for Austrian school children starting at primary school, to promote integration.



The text is like this:

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"I pledge allegiance to the Republic of Austria and its constitution und to respect the Austrian laws and basic rules - to uphold our freedom and peaceful living together ! Men and Women are equal in Austria and each human being has the right to live his/her own life in a self-determined way."

http://derstandard.at/2000031033653/Bluemel-fuer-Werteformel-an-Schulen

[Tender Branson]

Signature collection for presidential candidates starts next week and lasts around 1 month.

6.000 signatures are needed Austria-wide to be on the ballot. Unlike in parliamentary elections, there's no state quota for signatures.

Major party candidates who will have no problems collecting the signatures:

* Hundstorfer (SPÖ)
* Khol (ÖVP)
* Hofer (FPÖ)
* Van der Bellen (Greens)

Major candidates who will have problems collecting them, but will likely manage to be on the ballot:

* Griss (Indy)
* Lugner (Indy)

Minor candidates who are mentioned by the media, but who likely won't be on the ballot:

* Marschall (EU-Exit Party)
* Awadalla (Indy)

[Tender Branson]

Are 6,000 signatures of citizens really that hard to gather, though ? In France you have to gather 500 signatures of elected officials, and we still get a dozen fukcing candidates each time !

Yes, 6.000 signatures is a big hurdle - because you cannot simply collect the signatures on the street from citizens, like in the US for example.

Here, you have to convince an eligible voter to go to the municipal office where this person lives and sign the petition for a candidate in front of the municipal clerk who will then officially stamp it and send it to the campaign headquarters.

If you are an independent low-key candidate without financial resources, you will have to invest a lot of time to convince certain people in say Vienna to go to the office and sign for you. And Vienna is full of tourists, foreigners who cannot vote etc. etc.

Besides, most eligible voters are at work during day time, when the municipal offices are open for signing the petitions - which makes it even harder.

People with a party machine behind them have a much easier time.

[Tender Branson]

The latest Profil magazine poll from Unique Research:

32% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
12% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% Others

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-prozentpunkte-regierungsparteien-6240042

[Tender Branson]

The latest Profil magazine poll from Unique Research:

32% FPÖ
24% ÖVP
23% SPÖ
12% Greens
  8% NEOS
  1% Others

http://www.profil.at/oesterreich/umfrage-fpoe-prozentpunkte-regierungsparteien-6240042

If elections were tomorrow, would you expect a real result like this or is the FPO just pumped up in polls..

National polls tend to be accurate, so yeah, I guess this would be the most likely result.

Maybe NEOS is too high and the ÖVP too low. FPÖ a bit too high and SPÖ a bit too low.

[Tender Branson]

And they did some runoff scenarios too in which VdB beats Hofer by 58-42 and Griss by 56-44:

[Tender Branson]

In a runoff i think a lot of Khol voters will go Hofer and that most Griss and Spo voters go Vdb.

If Hofer manages to get into the runoff (which doesn't look unlikely), he should get a decent amount of votes from Khol-supporters as well as Griss- and Lugner-supporters.

Hofer only has 19% in the first round, but gets 42% in the runoff - which suggests that he gets an additional 23% from the pool of Griss/Khol/Lugner voters (together at 38%).

It means Hofer gets 61% of this pool, while 39% go to VdB (assuming there's almost no support for Hofer coming from SPÖ-voters, which is likely not the case).

If we expand the pool with SPÖ-voters, then there are 54% up for grabs in the runoff.

Hofer gets 23% of them, which means 43% of the total pool (Griss, Hundstorfer, Khol, Lugner).

In general, I think Hofer would perform best with Khol voters (maybe 60-70% of them), 40-60% of Griss voters, 20-30% of Hundstorfer voters and an unknown % of Lugner voters.

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow, municipal elections will be held in Tyrol in 277 of 279 towns/cities (but not in the capital Innsbruck, which votes in 2018, and in a town of some 50 people - in which no voter wanted to run for office).

The elections are already won by the ÖVP (and their various "independent" lists), before the first votes are even cast.

That's because the ÖVP (and their lists) are on the ballot in each town/city, whereas even the SPÖ is only on the ballot in 98 towns, the FPÖ in 75 and the Greens in 45.

It is expected that the FPÖ does well (because they are benefitting from the migrant chaos and thousands of migrants being stuffed into mass quarters throughout Tyrolian towns). ÖVP and SPÖ will lose of course, the Greens might gain a bit from a low level.

But Cranberry can tell you more about it ...

[Tender Branson]

Last time, turnout was 73.3% - which is quite high for Tyrolian standards.

Also: The ÖVP defends 236/277 mayors tomorrow, the SPÖ 22, the FPÖ 1 and the remaining 18 mayors are "independents" close to the ÖVP.

490.000 people aged 16+ (incl. EU-citizens) are eligible to vote.

[Tender Branson]

Basically, there is no point in holding elections anywhere in Tyrol safe for like five "bigger" (for Tyrolean standards) cities on the local level, at all; because the race anywhere but in those is all but a done deal. The ÖVP is just omipotent basically everywhwere. There are some very small pockets of heavily concentrated SPÖ support in four or five industrial towns in the east (the "Unterland" or "lower country"), and three towns in the west (the "Oberland" or "upper country") where many people working for the national railways settle. There is St. Jakob im Defreggental which has an FPÖ mayor because that mayor used to be the state party's leader and is supposedly somehow popular. The rest is black country through and through.

Gramais, as Tender mentioned, is not holding any elections at all, a commissioner from the state government will conduct business there, I guess (not that the many people of Austria's smallest municipality will need much of that); while there are numerous other towns, especially in the remote Reutte district, that will have just one list for the council and just one candidate for the mayor's office. It is quite hard to find enough people running for election in such small towns, that are actually no more than hamlets - there are 3 municipalities with less than 100 people and 9 with less than 300 in Reutte district alone - because the councils are required to have nine councillors at minimum. It somehow shows you the stupidity of Tyrol's local government structure when you have nine councillors plus one mayor represent 51 people, but then again, all of them will be from the ÖVP, so our state government will never even think about that.

1) There are 7 "big" cities in Tyrol with more than 10.000 people (+Innsbruck of course with over 130.000 people). And another 6 with more than 8.000 people, so I would classify these 13 as "the ones to watch" today. As for the other 264 towns: Who cares ?

2) Nope:

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The mayor & city council will simply remain in office for another term.